TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.39×

LAA @ BAL

Camden Yards · 12:35p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 7 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

12:35p

+8 ↑

1:35p

+8 ↑

2:35p

+8 ↑

3:35p

+7 ↑

4:35p

best window is early — 12:35p at +8

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 26 · vs Johnson ⟷ Vaughn Grissom conv 15 · vs Young → edge: Coby Mayo

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 88

2.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +400 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +280 C+ ●●●○○

3 Leody Taveras — D ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 47

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vaughn Grissom +625 D ●●○○○

2 Mike Trout +330 C ●○○○○

3 Zach Neto +370 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Coby Mayo: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Coby Mayo ✶ HOT vs Johnson +400 0.216 · 92.5 · 10.4% 28.6% 23.1% F B O C 59

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Johnson +280 0.212 · 93.9 · 10.9% 18.2% 20.3% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Johnson Edge +330 0.176 · 89.5 · 8.1% 9.1% 12.2% F B O C 50

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Young +330 0.206 · 90.3 · 10.5% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Young +625 0.147 · 89.0 · 6.7% 18.2% 11.5% F B O D 41

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Johnson Edge — 0.118 · 87.6 · 6.5% 11.1% 14.4% F B O D 41

· LAA Zach Neto vs Young +370 0.193 · 89.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 48

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Johnson Edge +400 0.119 · 86.9 · 9.6% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 45

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Young Edge +525 0.150 · 89.1 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 41

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Young — 0.131 · 87.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Young Edge +750 0.113 · 87.5 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.8% ← leak BRK 26.6% OFF 20.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mike Trout R

15.9% 25.6% 12.5% 17.2% C 51 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

14.6% 8.4% 10.5% 12.2% D 48 +370

Vaughn Grissom R

8.6% 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% D 41 +625

Josh Lowe L Edge

13.3% 2.7% 7.1% 9.3% D 41 +525

110

Oswald Peraza R

6.5% 7.4% 12.0% 7.5% D 37 —

132

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

3.0% 2.6% 0.0% 2.4% D 32 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.8% ← leak OFF 25.9% BRK 17.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R

14.8% 14.7% 7.9% 12.7% C+ 61 +280

Coby Mayo R

10.3% 19.0% 10.7% 11.6% C 59 +400

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.4% 7.4% 6.1% 7.0% C 50 +330

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.3% 2.3% 10.5% 9.9% D 45 +400

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 0.0% 8.3% 4.5% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.8% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Grissom Alonso Mayo

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Coby Mayo +400 · 59

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 12:35p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 7 mph out 87°F open

↑

7 mph · out

84°F

12:35p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

87°F

1:35p

↑

6 mph · out

89°F

2:35p

↑

6 mph · out

92°F

3:35p

↑

5 mph · out

94°F

4:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.39× 87°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 51 C +330 COOL 34 0.206 90.3 10.5% 23.7%vs RHP 409 15.2% 0.0% 13.4% 28

2 Zach Neto 48 D +370 · 52 0.193 89.4 8.9% 18.7%vs RHP 402 15.9% 0.0% 11.8% 26

3 Vaughn Grissom 41 D +625 · 90 0.147 89.0 6.7% 19.4%vs RHP 390 10.4% 18.2% 11.5% 32

4 Josh Lowe 41 D +525 · 94 0.150 89.1 7.7% 16.0%vs RHP 396 9.9% 0.0% 9.0% 10

5 Oswald Peraza 37 D — COOL 110 0.131 87.3 6.9% 9.1%vs RHP 386 6.2% 0.0% 8.8% 1

6 Nolan Schanuel 32 D +750 · 132 0.113 87.5 4.0% 8.7%vs RHP 372 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% 38

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.33 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +280 WARM 6 0.212 93.9 10.9% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.6% 18.2% 20.3% 32

2 Coby Mayo ✶ 59 C +400 HOT 13 0.216 92.5 10.4% 12.5%vs RHP 405 16.5% 28.6% 23.1% 15

3 Gunnar Henderson 50 C +330 WARM 36 0.176 89.5 8.1% 16.7%vs RHP 390 15.3% 9.1% 12.2% 28

4 Colton Cowser 45 D +400 COOL 68 0.119 86.9 9.6% 18.2%vs RHP 417 12.5% 0.0% 9.2% 8

5 Leody Taveras 41 D — · 92 0.118 87.6 6.5% 12.5%vs RHP 419 3.9% 11.1% 14.4% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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