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Great American Ball Park is live · 1.18×

ATH @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 12:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph slight_out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

12:40p

+7 ↑

1:40p

+8 ↑

2:40p

+7 ↑

3:40p

+7 ↑

4:40p

the 2:40p window peaks +8

Best of game Jj Bleday conv 65 · vs Barnett ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 15 · vs Abbott → edge: Jj Bleday

ATTACK Mason Barnett RHP · BOS

leak 78

1.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jj Bleday +320 C ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +305 C+ ●●●●●

3 Elly De La Cruz +280 C ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 47

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +400 D ●●○○○

2 Tyler Soderstrom +305 C ●●○○○

3 Henry Bolte +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jj Bleday: 10.2% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 100.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jj Bleday ✶ COOL vs Barnett Edge +320 0.235 · 88.7 · 8.9% 100.0% 29.9% F B O C 59

· — Sal Stewart vs Barnett +305 0.224 · 90.5 · 10.2% 33.3% 28.3% F B O C+ 63

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Abbott +305 0.217 · 90.5 · 8.3% 8.3% 16.2% F B O C 56

· — Elly De La Cruz vs Barnett Edge +280 0.221 · 94.2 · 10.3% 7.7% 16.4% F B O C 59

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Barnett +390 0.159 · 91.1 · 9.4% 10.0% 12.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Abbott +400 0.113 · 89.2 · 7.1% 18.2% 12.8% F B O D 44

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Abbott Edge +625 0.090 · 90.7 · 7.2% 8.3% 11.8% F B O D 43

· — Eugenio Suarez vs Barnett +320 0.185 · 88.6 · 8.8% 0.0% 19.1% F B O D 48

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs Barnett +475 0.134 · 87.9 · 8.0% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 43

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Abbott — 0.150 · 89.9 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 44

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Abbott Edge +700 0.123 · 84.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· — Tj Friedl COOL vs Barnett Edge — 0.083 · 87.5 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Abbott +575 0.080 · 86.4 · 2.8% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.7% ← leak BRK 33.9% OFF 18.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Tyler Soderstrom L

8.9% 16.7% 0.0% 9.4% C 56 +305

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L

7.8% 4.4% 8.7% 7.2% D 44 —

Lawrence Butler L

6.4% 9.8% 4.1% 6.5% D 44 +400

Henry Bolte R Edge

7.5% 7.3% 5.0% 7.1% D 43 +625

106

Jacob Wilson R Edge

3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 38 +700

135

Jeff Mcneil L

0.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% D 32 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.7% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 51.7% ← leak FB 43.6% OFF 4.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Sal Stewart R

10.4% 16.7% 10.3% 13.9% C+ 63 +305

Jj Bleday L Edge

8.0% 13.1% 5.7% 10.2% C 59 +320

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

10.7% 19.0% 3.7% 14.0% C 59 +280

Tyler Stephenson R

6.9% 15.0% 5.9% 11.8% C 50 +390

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R

5.6% 12.3% 6.2% 10.3% D 48 +320

Matt Mclain R

9.5% 9.3% 0.0% 8.6% D 43 +475

124

Tj Friedl L Edge

4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 2.5% D 35 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (51.7% usage) carries Barnett's damage — BRK is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Butler Stewart Bleday

Legend

attack side — vs Barnett fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jj Bleday +320 · 59

Sal Stewart +305 · 63

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph slight_out 84°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

79°F

12:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

82°F

1:40p

↑

5 mph · out

83°F

2:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

83°F

3:40p

↑

4 mph · out

84°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 84°F, wind 4 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 56 C +305 WARM 20 0.217 90.5 8.3% 29.2%vs LHP 405 15.2% 8.3% 16.2% 31

2 Carlos Cortes 44 D — COOL 77 0.150 89.9 7.3% 13.0% 403 5.0% 0.0% 9.2% 9

3 Lawrence Butler 44 D +400 WARM 79 0.113 89.2 7.1% 14.3%vs LHP 405 5.3% 18.2% 12.8% 26

4 Henry Bolte 43 D +625 · 82 0.090 90.7 7.2% 37.5%vs LHP 420 9.1% 8.3% 11.8% 23

5 Jacob Wilson 38 D +700 · 106 0.123 84.0 4.1% 8.0%vs LHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 8.3% 40

6 Jeff Mcneil 32 D +575 COOL 135 0.080 86.4 2.8% 0.0%vs LHP 377 3.0% 0.0% 6.4% 32

vs Mason Barnett · RHP 1.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 63 C+ +305 WARM 4 0.224 90.5 10.2% 23.7%vs RHP 394 16.3% 33.3% 28.3% 28

2 Jj Bleday ✶ 59 C +320 COOL 8 0.235 88.7 8.9% 24.1%vs RHP 387 20.0% 100.0% 29.9% 25

3 Elly De La Cruz 59 C +280 · 10 0.221 94.2 10.3% 19.2%vs RHP 398 16.1% 7.7% 16.4% 31

4 Tyler Stephenson 50 C +390 WARM 39 0.159 91.1 9.4% 19.6%vs RHP 390 8.0% 10.0% 12.8% 18

5 Eugenio Suarez 48 D +320 WARM 46 0.185 88.6 8.8% 25.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 15

6 Matt Mclain 43 D +475 COOL 81 0.134 87.9 8.0% 9.8%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 14

7 Tj Friedl 35 D — COOL 124 0.083 87.5 4.3% 7.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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