TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.61×

WSH @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 8 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

6:05p

+13 ↑

7:05p

+11 ↑

8:05p

+12 ↑

9:05p

+13 ↑

10:05p

the 6:05p window peaks +13

Best of game Bryce Harper conv 33 · vs Mikolas ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 17 · vs Sánchez → edge: Bryce Harper

ATTACK Miles Mikolas RHP · WSH

leak 91

2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Harper +265 B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +390 C ●●○○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +186 B ●●○○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 6

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +850 D ●●●○○

2 Dylan Crews +525 C ●●○○○

3 Cj Abrams +700 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Harper: 11.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper ✶ vs Mikolas Edge +265 0.246 · 90.3 · 10.4% 25.0% 40.8% F B O B 72

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Sánchez Edge +525 0.156 · 90.9 · 9.0% 16.7% 15.7% F B O C 51

· PHI Trea Turner vs Mikolas +390 0.152 · 88.8 · 7.8% 16.7% 13.6% F B O C 55

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Sánchez +700 0.264 · 89.7 · 9.2% 0.0% 27.2% F B O C+ 61

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Mikolas Edge +186 0.283 · 93.3 · 12.6% 0.0% 25.0% F B O B 74

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Mikolas Edge +500 0.155 · 89.5 · 8.0% 8.3% 11.2% F B O C 52

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Mikolas Edge +390 0.171 · 89.6 · 8.9% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Sánchez +850 0.172 · 88.2 · 7.9% 18.2% 15.1% F B O D 49

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.171 · 88.5 · 6.0% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 44

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Mikolas +475 0.134 · — · 6.9% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 45

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Mikolas +500 0.134 · 90.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 49

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.147 · 88.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Mikolas Edge +850 0.081 · 86.6 · 2.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.041 · 84.4 · 1.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.9% ← leak OFF 37.9% BRK 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Cj Abrams L

11.3% 13.0% 9.2% 10.8% C+ 61 +700

Dylan Crews R Edge

6.6% 11.1% 24.2% 10.4% C 51 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Daylen Lile L

8.5% 3.6% 11.0% 8.0% D 49 +850

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.2% 2.5% 3.4% 4.7% D 44 —

Jacob Young R Edge

8.3% 3.1% 4.2% 6.4% D 43 —

145

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.9% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.2% ← leak BRK 43.0% OFF 7.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.9% 14.7% 26.9% 17.3% B 74 +186

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.8% 14.7% 6.6% 11.8% B 72 +265

Neutral · 3

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.8% 13.6% 2.4% 8.6% C 56 +390

Trea Turner R

8.5% 4.5% 2.6% 6.6% C 55 +390

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.8% 4.5% 5.3% 6.9% C 52 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R

4.7% 4.2% 8.8% 4.9% D 49 +500

J.T. Realmuto R

4.3% 7.4% 5.6% 5.2% D 45 +475

111

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 37 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.2% usage) carries Mikolas's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Crews Lile Harper Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Mikolas fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +265 · 72

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 8 mph out 87°F open

+13

↑

8 mph · out

87°F

6:05p · peak

+13

↑

7 mph · out

87°F

7:05p

+11

↑

5 mph · out

86°F

8:05p

+12

↑

6 mph · out

84°F

9:05p

+13

↑

7 mph · out

81°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.61× 87°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 61 C+ +700 COOL 5 0.264 89.7 9.2% 20.8%vs LHP 396 33.3% 0.0% 27.2% 33

2 Dylan Crews 51 C +525 · 33 0.156 90.9 9.0% 20.0%vs LHP 406 17.6% 16.7% 15.7% 32

3 Daylen Lile 49 D +850 · 44 0.172 88.2 7.9% 5.0%vs LHP 400 9.9% 18.2% 15.1% 33

4 Keibert Ruiz 44 D — COOL 71 0.171 88.5 6.0% 23.1%vs LHP 377 9.6% 0.0% 14.1% 25

5 Jacob Young 43 D — COOL 83 0.147 88.4 7.1% 8.7%vs LHP 396 7.7% 0.0% 10.0% 24

6 Nasim Nunez 24 D — COOL 145 0.041 84.4 1.8% 7.1%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 35

vs Miles Mikolas · RHP 2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.31 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 74 B +186 COOL 1 0.283 93.3 12.6% 41.2%vs RHP 403 22.9% 0.0% 25.0% 19

2 Bryce Harper ✶ 72 B +265 WARM 2 0.246 90.3 10.4% 37.0%vs RHP 403 20.0% 25.0% 40.8% 31

3 Brandon Marsh 56 C +390 COOL 21 0.171 89.6 8.9% 21.3%vs RHP 393 12.6% 0.0% 14.4% 35

4 Trea Turner 55 C +390 · 22 0.152 88.8 7.8% 21.3%vs RHP 393 13.9% 16.7% 13.6% 42

5 Bryson Stott 52 C +500 WARM 30 0.155 89.5 8.0% 9.5%vs RHP 389 7.6% 8.3% 11.2% 29

6 Alec Bohm 49 D +500 COOL 40 0.134 90.6 6.7% 16.7%vs RHP 396 11.2% 0.0% 11.3% 41

7 J.T. Realmuto 45 D +475 WARM 65 0.134 — 6.9% 19.4%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 23

8 Justin Crawford 37 D +850 WARM 111 0.081 86.6 2.7% 5.3%vs RHP 382 2.5% 0.0% 8.8% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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