TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ AZ

Neutral air · 1.03×

SD @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 11 mph in 99°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-8 ↑

6:40p

-7 ↑

7:40p

-7 ↑

8:40p

-7 ↑

9:40p

-8 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at -7

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 17 · vs Buehler ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 13 · vs Drake → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 80

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●○○

2 Geraldo Perdomo +950 D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Kohl Drake LHP · AZ

leak 13

2.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +525 D ●●○○○

2 Ty France +500 C ●●○○○

3 Manny Machado +350 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: Match 13.3% · 14D pace 7.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Buehler Edge +425 0.227 · 91.9 · 10.1% 7.7% 14.0% F B O C 52

· SD Ty France ✶ COOL vs Drake Edge +500 0.232 · 92.6 · 11.0% 7.7% 13.3% F B O C 55

· SD Manny Machado vs Drake Edge +350 0.215 · 90.6 · 10.9% 7.7% 11.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Buehler +575 0.184 · 85.3 · 7.9% 18.2% 16.6% F B O D 46

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Drake +525 0.157 · 90.0 · 10.8% 16.7% 9.2% F B O D 48

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Buehler Edge +950 0.125 · 87.2 · 5.5% 15.4% 7.4% F B O D 36

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Buehler Edge +500 0.193 · 90.3 · 9.2% 8.3% 11.4% F B O D 48

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Buehler +850 0.140 · 89.2 · 8.0% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 40

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Drake — 0.179 · 87.6 · 8.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 44

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Buehler Edge — 0.132 · 87.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Drake +950 0.068 · 87.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Drake Edge +625 0.101 · 88.4 · 7.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.8% OFF 18.5% BRK 17.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R Edge

11.6% 6.9% 11.6% 11.0% C 55 +500

Manny Machado R Edge

13.4% 7.5% 6.7% 10.8% C 54 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L

12.6% 5.8% 10.5% 10.5% D 48 +525

Gavin Sheets L

9.2% 1.9% 4.3% 6.6% D 44 —

122

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

7.3% 3.7% 2.5% 5.7% D 36 +625

133

Jake Cronenworth L

4.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.5% D 32 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Drake's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.6% BRK 28.0% OFF 10.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.1% 15.3% 11.5% 12.0% C 52 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.8% 7.2% 3.8% 9.9% D 48 +500

Nolan Arenado R

10.6% 2.2% 6.2% 7.4% D 46 +575

Gabriel Moreno R

7.1% 7.5% 8.8% 7.5% D 40 +850

119

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.4% 1.8% 2.4% 3.5% D 36 +950

129

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.2% 1.6% 1.5% 3.1% D 33 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Buehler's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 11 mph in 99°F retractable

-8

↑

11 mph · in

99°F

6:40p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

96°F

7:40p · peak

-7

↑

8 mph · in

96°F

8:40p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

96°F

9:40p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

97°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 99°F, wind 11 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kohl Drake · LHP 2.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 55 C +500 COOL 23 0.232 92.6 11.0% 23.1%vs LHP 394 16.9% 7.7% 13.3% 40

2 Manny Machado 54 C +350 WARM 26 0.215 90.6 10.9% 18.2%vs LHP 397 19.3% 7.7% 11.6% 38

3 Jackson Merrill 48 D +525 · 47 0.157 90.0 10.8% 13.0%vs LHP 410 14.0% 16.7% 9.2% 39

4 Gavin Sheets 44 D — COOL 78 0.179 87.6 8.6% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.0% 0.0% 8.0% 21

5 Xander Bogaerts 36 D +625 WARM 122 0.101 88.4 7.9% 5.6%vs LHP 396 7.5% 0.0% 5.9% 31

6 Jake Cronenworth 32 D +950 COOL 133 0.068 87.6 7.1% 8.1% 389 1.5% 0.0% 6.9% 37

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 52 C +425 WARM 29 0.227 91.9 10.1% 17.4%vs RHP 401 13.7% 7.7% 14.0% 40

2 Ketel Marte 48 D +500 COOL 53 0.193 90.3 9.2% 14.5%vs RHP 412 14.6% 8.3% 11.4% 36

3 Nolan Arenado 46 D +575 · 61 0.184 85.3 7.9% 19.2%vs RHP 392 14.3% 18.2% 16.6% 32

4 Gabriel Moreno 40 D +850 · 98 0.140 89.2 8.0% 14.3%vs RHP 400 8.8% 9.1% 9.4% 39

5 Geraldo Perdomo 36 D +950 WARM 119 0.125 87.2 5.5% 11.0%vs RHP 383 8.0% 15.4% 7.4% 44

6 Ildemaro Vargas 33 D — · 129 0.132 87.6 5.1% 9.4%vs RHP 399 4.8% 0.0% 7.2% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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