TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.20×

NYY @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 1 mph slight_out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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conditions hold steady across the window · -1 FIT

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 33 · vs Cole ⟷ Ben Rice conv 27 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 89

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●●

2 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●●○

3 Corbin Carroll — C ●●●○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 54

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cody Bellinger — D ●●●●○

3 Aaron Judge — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 27.0% · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Cole — 0.207 · 85.0 · 7.4% 41.7% 24.1% F B O C 50

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Rodriguez — 0.261 · 92.0 · 10.2% 27.3% 27.0% F B O C+ 60

· NYY Aaron Judge COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.270 · 94.0 · 12.4% 14.3% 29.1% F B O C+ 60

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Cole Edge — 0.227 · 91.8 · 10.2% 20.0% 23.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Cole — 0.178 · 89.2 · 8.3% 36.4% 19.3% F B O D 47

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Rodriguez — 0.168 · 89.2 · 7.0% 33.3% 15.2% F B O D 43

· NYY Austin Wells vs Rodriguez — 0.134 · 89.4 · 7.0% 18.2% 12.5% F B O D 38

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Cole — 0.157 · 90.5 · 9.4% 10.0% 10.9% F B O D 42

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Cole Edge — 0.191 · 90.3 · 9.1% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 46

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.205 · 86.7 · 8.8% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 45

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Cole — 0.092 · 88.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 30

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.140 · 83.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 30

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Cole — 0.105 · 86.6 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.110 · 87.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.127 · 87.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 31

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.136 · 90.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Eduardo Rodriguez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Gerrit Cole — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Judge Bellinger Wells Carroll Arenado Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Cole fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Nolan Arenado — · 50

Ben Rice — · 60

Corbin Carroll — · 54

Gabriel Moreno — · 47

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 1 mph slight_out 94°F retractable

-1

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4 mph · slight_out

81°F

6:40p · peak

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:40p

-1

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4 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:40p

-1

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4 mph · slight_out

81°F

9:40p

-1

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4 mph · slight_out

81°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 94°F, wind 1 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 60 C+ — · 12 0.261 92.0 10.2% 29.4%vs LHP 393 23.8% 27.3% 27.0% 32

2 Aaron Judge 60 C+ — COOL 14 0.270 94.0 12.4% 46.2%vs LHP 404 22.0% 14.3% 29.1% 10

3 Paul Goldschmidt 45 D — COOL 95 0.205 86.7 8.8% 33.3%vs LHP 390 16.2% 0.0% 13.0% 9

4 Cody Bellinger 43 D — WARM 112 0.168 89.2 7.0% 13.2%vs LHP 377 11.6% 33.3% 15.2% 43

5 Austin Wells 38 D — · 167 0.134 89.4 7.0% 15.0%vs LHP 380 9.1% 18.2% 12.5% 19

6 Ryan Mcmahon 37 D — COOL 184 0.136 90.5 8.1% 0.0%vs LHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 5.8% 26

7 Jose Caballero 30 D — WARM 217 0.140 83.9 5.7% 22.2%vs LHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 15

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 54 C — WARM 27 0.227 91.8 10.2% 16.5%vs RHP 402 13.7% 20.0% 23.1% 25

2 Nolan Arenado 50 C — WARM 51 0.207 85.0 7.4% 22.7%vs RHP 389 16.9% 41.7% 24.1% 32

3 Gabriel Moreno 47 D — WARM 75 0.178 89.2 8.3% 16.7%vs RHP 399 12.5% 36.4% 19.3% 40

4 Ketel Marte 46 D — · 89 0.191 90.3 9.1% 14.0%vs RHP 408 14.3% 8.3% 11.6% 47

5 Tim Tawa 42 D — COOL 126 0.157 90.5 9.4% 23.3%vs RHP 399 9.4% 10.0% 10.9% 26

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 32 D — COOL 208 0.105 86.6 7.5% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.4% 0.0% 7.6% 11

7 Ildemaro Vargas 31 D — COOL 214 0.127 87.4 5.3% 6.0%vs RHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 7.0% 25

8 Jose Fernandez 30 D — COOL 219 0.092 88.0 5.8% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 3

9 Geraldo Perdomo 29 D — COOL 225 0.110 87.3 4.7% 9.2%vs RHP 383 5.8% 0.0% 7.4% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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