TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.95×

ATH @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph cross 65°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:10p

-4 ↑

8:10p

-4 ↑

9:10p

-3 ↑

10:10p

-3 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks -3

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 26 · vs Espino ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 31 · vs Barnett → edge: Travis Bazzana

ATTACK Daniel Espino RHP · CLE

leak 100

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler — D ●●●●○

2 Henry Bolte — D ●●●○○

3 Zack Gelof — C ●●●○○

FADE Mason Barnett RHP · ATH

leak 89

2.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.95 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

3 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Travis Bazzana: Match 17.5% · 14D pace 45.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Zack Gelof HOT vs Espino — 0.203 · 89.5 · 9.2% 16.7% 20.3% F B O C 50

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Espino — 0.226 · 91.6 · 11.3% 0.0% 19.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana ✶ vs Barnett Edge — 0.159 · 87.8 · 6.7% 45.5% 17.5% F B O D 49

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Espino Edge — 0.159 · 89.7 · 8.6% 33.3% 19.0% F B O D 45

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Espino — 0.127 · 90.8 · 8.5% 25.0% 16.1% F B O D 42

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Barnett Edge — 0.128 · 86.9 · 5.3% 23.1% 13.1% F B O D 40

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Espino Edge — 0.103 · 86.5 · 4.0% 16.7% 8.0% F B O D 29

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Barnett Edge — 0.067 · 83.6 · 1.9% 7.7% 7.0% F B O D 26

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Barnett Edge — 0.195 · 87.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 45

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Barnett Edge — 0.164 · 91.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 44

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Espino Edge — 0.166 · 87.6 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 38

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Espino Edge — 0.135 · 88.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 35

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Barnett Edge — 0.117 · 90.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 41

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Barnett Edge — 0.134 · 88.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Espino — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Mason Barnett — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Butler Bolte Bazzana Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Espino fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Lawrence Butler — · 45

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph cross 65°F open

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

65°F

7:10p

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

64°F

8:10p

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

64°F

9:10p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

64°F

10:10p · peak

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

64°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 65°F, wind 9 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Daniel Espino · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 54 C — COOL 34 0.226 91.6 11.3% 23.3%vs RHP 417 19.8% 0.0% 19.1% 10

2 Zack Gelof 50 C — HOT 51 0.203 89.5 9.2% 25.5%vs RHP 398 19.7% 16.7% 20.3% 35

3 Lawrence Butler 45 D — WARM 95 0.159 89.7 8.6% 23.5%vs RHP 408 10.5% 33.3% 19.0% 32

4 Henry Bolte 42 D — WARM 116 0.127 90.8 8.5% 11.5%vs RHP 398 12.5% 25.0% 16.1% 22

5 Jonah Heim 38 D — COOL 146 0.166 87.6 7.5% 7.0%vs RHP 409 8.5% 0.0% 9.4% 22

6 Carlos Cortes 35 D — COOL 168 0.135 88.3 7.2% 16.4%vs RHP 400 4.7% 0.0% 8.8% 27

7 Jeff Mcneil 29 D — COOL 203 0.103 86.5 4.0% 11.8%vs RHP 380 6.1% 16.7% 8.0% 37

vs Mason Barnett · RHP 2.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.95 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Travis Bazzana ✶ 49 D — WARM 58 0.159 87.8 6.7% 17.2%vs RHP 392 12.5% 45.5% 17.5% 34

2 Angel Martinez 45 D — · 87 0.195 87.6 8.3% 20.8%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 24

3 Chase Delauter 44 D — WARM 97 0.164 91.5 7.5% 20.3%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 21

4 Patrick Bailey 41 D — COOL 126 0.117 90.3 8.1% 15.6%vs RHP 409 6.8% 0.0% 8.4% 20

5 Brayan Rocchio 40 D — COOL 129 0.128 86.9 5.3% 12.2%vs RHP 384 8.4% 23.1% 13.1% 37

6 Jose Ramirez 37 D — COOL 153 0.134 88.6 6.2% 8.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 39

7 Steven Kwan 26 D — COOL 214 0.067 83.6 1.9% 4.1%vs RHP 367 2.1% 7.7% 7.0% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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