TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ NYM

Playable air · 1.08×

PHI @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 6 mph in 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

7:15p

-6 ↑

8:15p

-7 ↑

9:15p

-7 ↑

10:15p

-7 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at -6

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 35 · vs Thornton ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 27 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 78

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber — B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner — D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

FADE PHI Bullpen Proxy

leak 67

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●●○

2 Juan Soto — C+ ●●○○○

3 Carson Benge — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 32.5% · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Thornton — 0.279 · 92.4 · 12.0% 38.5% 32.5% F B O B 70

· — Francisco Lindor vs Proxy — 0.206 · 91.1 · 8.9% 30.8% 22.8% F B O C 53

· — Juan Soto COOL vs Proxy — 0.245 · 92.6 · 13.4% 15.4% 16.9% F B O C+ 61

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Thornton — 0.223 · 90.3 · 9.8% 7.7% 13.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Carson Benge vs Proxy — 0.141 · 88.8 · 7.3% 15.4% 9.8% F B O D 40

· — Brett Baty vs Proxy — 0.133 · 90.3 · 9.9% 11.1% 13.5% F B O D 42

· — Bo Bichette vs Proxy — 0.127 · 89.6 · 6.4% 15.4% 8.2% F B O D 38

· PHI Trea Turner vs Thornton Edge — 0.142 · 88.3 · 7.5% 15.4% 8.1% F B O D 43

· — Jared Young HOT vs Proxy — 0.162 · 90.4 · 7.7% 11.1% 10.1% F B O D 41

· — Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Proxy — 0.163 · 90.2 · 15.3% 0.0% 19.1% F B O D 49

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Thornton — 0.090 · 87.2 · 4.0% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 30

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Thornton Edge — 0.139 · 90.5 · 7.2% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 41

· — A.J. Ewing vs Proxy — 0.125 · 89.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 35

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Thornton — 0.147 · 89.1 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Thornton — 0.140 · 89.2 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 39

· — Marcus Semien vs Proxy — 0.124 · 86.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Thornton Edge — 0.132 · 89.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Zac Thornton — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for PHI Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Soto Lindor

Legend

attack side — vs Thornton fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber — · 70

Francisco Lindor — · 53

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 6 mph in 78°F open

-6

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

7:15p · peak

-6

↑

6 mph · in

77°F

8:15p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

76°F

9:15p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

74°F

10:15p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

73°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 78°F, wind 6 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 70 B — · 1 0.279 92.4 12.0% 36.8%vs LHP 402 23.8% 38.5% 32.5% 36

2 Bryce Harper 55 C — COOL 30 0.223 90.3 9.8% 10.3%vs LHP 403 17.6% 7.7% 13.0% 33

3 Brandon Marsh 43 D — COOL 109 0.147 89.1 8.4% 17.6%vs LHP 391 10.4% 0.0% 9.5% 23

4 Trea Turner 43 D — · 110 0.142 88.3 7.5% 7.7%vs LHP 390 12.5% 15.4% 8.1% 44

5 Alec Bohm 41 D — · 125 0.139 90.5 7.2% 17.5%vs LHP 394 10.0% 8.3% 9.1% 35

6 Bryson Stott 39 D — COOL 139 0.140 89.2 7.2% 10.0%vs LHP 393 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% 32

7 J.T. Realmuto 36 D — WARM 161 0.132 89.7 7.1% 6.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 22

8 Justin Crawford 30 D — WARM 198 0.090 87.2 4.0% 4.5% 395 2.7% 11.1% 6.9% 26

vs PHI Bullpen Proxy 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 61 C+ — COOL 22 0.245 92.6 13.4% 19.8% 401 20.2% 15.4% 16.9% 44

2 Francisco Lindor 53 C — · 55 0.206 91.1 8.9% 16.0% 390 16.2% 30.8% 22.8% 41

3 Francisco Alvarez 49 D — COOL 85 0.163 90.2 15.3% 20.5% 402 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 22

4 Brett Baty 42 D — WARM 141 0.133 90.3 9.9% 10.2% 396 6.9% 11.1% 13.5% 22

5 Jared Young 41 D — HOT 151 0.162 90.4 7.7% 12.0% 396 7.0% 11.1% 10.1% 33

6 Carson Benge 40 D — · 160 0.141 88.8 7.3% 13.8% 393 10.9% 15.4% 9.8% 37

7 Bo Bichette 38 D — · 170 0.127 89.6 6.4% 12.5% 388 10.1% 15.4% 8.2% 43

8 A.J. Ewing 35 D — · 188 0.125 89.4 7.0% 11.6% 397 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 36

9 Marcus Semien 35 D — WARM 189 0.124 86.7 5.9% 9.3% 391 9.6% 0.0% 7.8% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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