TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ LAD

Playable air · 1.06×

SF @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:15p · 10 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

7:15p

+4 ↑

8:15p

+4 ↑

9:15p

+2 ↑

10:15p

+2 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +4

Best of game Max Muncy conv 31 · vs Perdomo ⟷ Bryce Eldridge conv 16 · vs Glasnow → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Cesar Perdomo LHP · SD

leak 62

1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Kyle Tucker — D ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts — C ●●●○○

FADE Tyler Glasnow RHP · LAD

leak 33

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Eldridge — C ●●●○○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●○○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 28.4% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Max Muncy ✶ vs Perdomo — 0.238 · 90.3 · 9.5% 33.3% 28.4% F B O C+ 64

· — Mookie Betts vs Perdomo Edge — 0.180 · 90.3 · 7.4% 25.0% 13.2% F B O C 50

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Glasnow Edge — 0.192 · 92.7 · 10.1% 16.7% 16.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Kyle Tucker vs Perdomo — 0.155 · 88.9 · 6.8% 38.5% 15.8% F B O D 48

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Glasnow Edge — 0.154 · 86.6 · 7.1% 11.1% 16.5% F B O D 42

· — Alex Freeland vs Perdomo Edge — 0.091 · 89.6 · 6.6% 20.0% 5.0% F B O D 38

· — Tommy Edman COOL vs Perdomo Edge — 0.125 · 87.2 · 5.9% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 39

· — Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Perdomo Edge — 0.162 · 90.4 · 8.8% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 44

· — Freddie Freeman COOL vs Perdomo — 0.150 · 89.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 44

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.122 · 87.6 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Glasnow — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cesar Perdomo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Eldridge Gilbert Muncy Betts Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Perdomo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Max Muncy — · 64

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph out 74°F open

↑

3 mph · out

74°F

7:15p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

72°F

8:15p

↑

2 mph · out

71°F

9:15p

↑

1 mph · slight_out

70°F

10:15p

↑

1 mph · slight_out

69°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 74°F, wind 3 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Glasnow · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Bryce Eldridge 53 C — · 37 0.192 92.7 10.1% 17.2%vs RHP 402 18.1% 16.7% 16.3% 30

2 Drew Gilbert 42 D — WARM 114 0.154 86.6 7.1% 18.0%vs RHP 394 7.2% 11.1% 16.5% 17

3 Jung Hoo Lee 33 D — COOL 182 0.122 87.6 4.5% 9.3%vs RHP 382 5.1% 0.0% 7.4% 37

vs Cesar Perdomo · LHP 1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 64 C+ — · 6 0.238 90.3 9.5% 22.9%vs LHP 410 21.8% 33.3% 28.4% 48

2 Mookie Betts 50 C — WARM 53 0.180 90.3 7.4% 12.2%vs LHP 389 12.8% 25.0% 13.2% 39

3 Kyle Tucker 48 D — WARM 69 0.155 88.9 6.8% 10.5%vs LHP 392 9.8% 38.5% 15.8% 38

4 Teoscar Hernandez 44 D — HOT 96 0.162 90.4 8.8% 23.3%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 29

5 Freddie Freeman 44 D — COOL 102 0.150 89.4 7.6% 14.7%vs LHP 399 9.5% 0.0% 9.6% 26

6 Tommy Edman 39 D — COOL 136 0.125 87.2 5.9% 27.3%vs LHP 396 7.8% 8.3% 7.4% 35

7 Alex Freeland 38 D — · 150 0.091 89.6 6.6% 0.0%vs LHP 366 3.8% 20.0% 5.0% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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