TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ BAL

Suppressed air · 0.90×

MIL @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

7:05p

-7 ↑

8:05p

-8 ↑

9:05p

-8 ↑

10:05p

-9 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at -6

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 34 · vs Proxy ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 30 · vs May → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK BAL Bullpen Proxy

leak 35

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●●●

2 William Contreras — D ●●●●○

3 Garrett Mitchell — C ●●●○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 17

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●●

3 Samuel Basallo — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 24.6% · 14D pace 42.9% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jake Bauers ✶ vs Proxy — 0.228 · 92.3 · 13.9% 42.9% 24.6% F B O C+ 65

· — Pete Alonso COOL vs May — 0.235 · 93.9 · 10.1% 33.3% 26.4% F B O C+ 61

· — Coby Mayo vs May — 0.240 · 91.3 · 9.6% 36.4% 22.6% F B O C 58

· — Garrett Mitchell vs Proxy — 0.164 · 93.4 · 12.2% 18.2% 16.4% F B O C 51

· — Jackson Chourio COOL vs Proxy — 0.195 · 91.6 · 12.2% 16.7% 11.5% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — William Contreras HOT vs Proxy — 0.147 · 90.5 · 8.5% 44.4% 13.2% F B O D 47

· — Brice Turang vs Proxy — 0.175 · 90.2 · 7.6% 18.2% 14.6% F B O D 46

· — Samuel Basallo vs May Edge — 0.190 · 90.6 · 9.5% 14.3% 14.4% F B O D 49

· — Christian Yelich COOL vs Proxy — 0.143 · 89.1 · 9.4% 12.5% 8.3% F B O D 43

· — Gunnar Henderson COOL vs May Edge — 0.175 · 89.2 · 7.2% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 44

· — Joey Ortiz vs Proxy — 0.135 · 89.1 · 4.2% 11.1% 7.3% F B O D 36

· — Colton Cowser COOL vs May Edge — 0.145 · 87.9 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· — Leody Taveras COOL vs May Edge — 0.126 · 87.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 33

· — David Hamilton COOL vs Proxy — 0.090 · 86.9 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 29

· — Sal Frelick vs Proxy — 0.089 · 85.9 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BAL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dustin May — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Contreras Turang Alonso Mayo Basallo

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Jake Bauers — · 65

Pete Alonso — · 61

Coby Mayo — · 58

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph in 76°F open

-6

↑

8 mph · in

76°F

7:05p · peak

-7

↑

9 mph · in

73°F

8:05p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

71°F

9:05p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

69°F

10:05p

-9

↑

9 mph · in

68°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.90× 76°F, wind 8 mph N (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BAL Bullpen Proxy 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 65 C+ — WARM 12 0.228 92.3 13.9% 24.8% 401 20.0% 42.9% 24.6% 17

2 Jackson Chourio 55 C — COOL 41 0.195 91.6 12.2% 17.8% 400 17.0% 16.7% 11.5% 43

3 Garrett Mitchell 51 C — WARM 70 0.164 93.4 12.2% 21.6% 417 8.3% 18.2% 16.4% 25

4 William Contreras 47 D — HOT 103 0.147 90.5 8.5% 10.7% 408 11.8% 44.4% 13.2% 30

5 Brice Turang 46 D — WARM 111 0.175 90.2 7.6% 19.4% 406 11.0% 18.2% 14.6% 29

6 Christian Yelich 43 D — COOL 135 0.143 89.1 9.4% 16.9% 397 8.7% 12.5% 8.3% 23

7 Joey Ortiz 36 D — WARM 183 0.135 89.1 4.2% 11.8% 392 7.8% 11.1% 7.3% 24

8 David Hamilton 29 D — COOL 215 0.090 86.9 3.2% 5.6% 386 4.1% 0.0% 6.4% 15

9 Sal Frelick 27 D — WARM 221 0.089 85.9 2.4% 4.4% 396 3.4% 0.0% 6.3% 27

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ — COOL 13 0.235 93.9 10.1% 30.9%vs RHP 402 22.4% 33.3% 26.4% 32

2 Coby Mayo 58 C — · 20 0.240 91.3 9.6% 15.2%vs RHP 411 18.6% 36.4% 22.6% 33

3 Samuel Basallo 49 D — WARM 63 0.190 90.6 9.5% 25.9%vs RHP 400 14.3% 14.3% 14.4% 18

4 Gunnar Henderson 44 D — COOL 100 0.175 89.2 7.2% 17.4%vs RHP 393 14.0% 8.3% 10.7% 27

5 Colton Cowser 41 D — COOL 124 0.145 87.9 8.4% 20.7%vs RHP 412 14.1% 0.0% 9.3% 13

6 Leody Taveras 33 D — COOL 181 0.126 87.9 5.3% 12.1%vs RHP 403 4.6% 0.0% 7.5% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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