TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.91×

KC @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 6 mph slight_out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +0

Best of game Vinnie Pasquantino conv 22 · vs Skenes ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 22 · vs Dobnak → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 76

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Vinnie Pasquantino — D ●●●○○

2 Carter Jensen — C ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — D ●○○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 57

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe — C ●●●○○

2 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●●○○

3 Oneil Cruz — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 22.7% · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Dobnak Edge — 0.225 · 91.0 · 7.7% 22.2% 22.7% F B O C 51

· KC Carter Jensen vs Skenes Edge — 0.219 · 91.3 · 9.1% 20.0% 19.4% F B O C 50

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.205 · 94.6 · 9.1% 16.7% 20.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Skenes Edge — 0.149 · 89.9 · 7.8% 30.0% 14.2% F B O D 40

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.183 · 89.3 · 6.0% 25.0% 16.1% F B O D 42

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Dobnak Edge — 0.162 · 91.0 · 7.7% 16.7% 10.2% F B O D 41

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.159 · 89.5 · 6.2% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 35

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.206 · 93.1 · 9.7% 0.0% 17.3% F B O D 47

· KC Bobby Witt vs Skenes — 0.165 · 92.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 38

· KC Salvador Perez vs Skenes — 0.148 · 89.0 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Skenes — 0.142 · 86.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 32

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.120 · 86.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Dobnak — 0.123 · 87.5 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.113 · 88.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 29

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Dobnak Edge — 0.085 · 85.7 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 24

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Dobnak — 0.087 · 86.3 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Dobnak — 0.067 · 86.4 · 3.5% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Paul Skenes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Randy Dobnak — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Pasquantino Cruz Lowe O'Hearn Reynolds

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe — · 51

Carter Jensen — · 50

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 6 mph slight_out 73°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

73°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

71°F

7:40p

-1

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

8:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · slight_out

67°F

9:40p

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

66°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 73°F, wind 6 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen 50 C — WARM 52 0.219 91.3 9.1% 20.4%vs RHP 399 17.2% 20.0% 19.4% 28

2 Jac Caglianone 47 D — COOL 76 0.206 93.1 9.7% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.1% 0.0% 17.3% 7

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 40 D — WARM 128 0.149 89.9 7.8% 14.1%vs RHP 395 11.9% 30.0% 14.2% 33

4 Bobby Witt 38 D — WARM 143 0.165 92.3 9.0% 15.9%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 32

5 Michael Massey 35 D — COOL 169 0.159 89.5 6.2% 9.6%vs RHP 395 7.7% 9.1% 8.4% 34

6 Salvador Perez 34 D — WARM 171 0.148 89.0 8.4% 16.9%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 40

7 Nick Loftin 32 D — COOL 184 0.142 86.8 5.4% 11.1%vs RHP 397 8.5% 0.0% 8.2% 27

8 Isaac Collins 29 D — COOL 206 0.113 88.1 5.9% 7.3%vs RHP 394 4.8% 0.0% 6.7% 23

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 51 C — COOL 43 0.205 94.6 9.1% 38.9%vs RHP 413 22.2% 16.7% 20.2% 29

2 Brandon Lowe ✶ 51 C — · 44 0.225 91.0 7.7% 25.3%vs RHP 390 17.8% 22.2% 22.7% 25

3 Ryan O'Hearn 42 D — COOL 115 0.183 89.3 6.0% 22.9%vs RHP 385 14.0% 25.0% 16.1% 14

4 Bryan Reynolds 41 D — WARM 120 0.162 91.0 7.7% 14.1%vs RHP 407 10.7% 16.7% 10.2% 35

5 Spencer Horwitz 32 D — COOL 186 0.120 86.9 5.6% 12.7%vs RHP 395 8.3% 0.0% 7.0% 19

6 Konnor Griffin 32 D — COOL 187 0.123 87.5 6.0% 18.2%vs RHP 401 5.3% 0.0% 6.8% 38

7 Nick Gonzales 25 D — WARM 216 0.087 86.3 3.9% 8.9%vs RHP 397 5.8% 0.0% 6.0% 26

8 Jake Mangum 24 D — WARM 218 0.085 85.7 3.3% 8.1%vs RHP 393 3.9% 0.0% 6.5% 31

9 Jared Triolo 23 D — COOL 222 0.067 86.4 3.5% 7.4%vs RHP 409 2.4% 0.0% 5.8% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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