TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.88×

WSH @ STL

Busch Stadium · 8:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 5 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

7:15p

-2 ↑

8:15p

-5 ↑

9:15p

-7 ↑

10:15p

-7 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at -1

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 19 · vs Leahy ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 15 · vs Cavalli → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 81

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams — D ●●●○○

2 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●○○○

3 Dylan Crews — D ●○○○○

FADE Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 81

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.28 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

2 Nolan Gorman — D ●○○○○

3 Jordan Walker — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 15.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.252 · 95.2 · 13.8% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Leahy Edge — 0.230 · 89.7 · 9.8% 25.0% 13.7% F B O D 49

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.187 · 91.9 · 9.0% 16.7% 12.7% F B O D 43

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Leahy Edge — 0.171 · 88.0 · 6.9% 14.3% 9.3% F B O D 36

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Cavalli Edge — 0.128 · 89.4 · 8.6% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Leahy — 0.147 · 90.3 · 9.4% 10.0% 6.4% F B O D 38

· STL Jordan Walker vs Cavalli — 0.204 · 92.5 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 44

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Leahy Edge — 0.185 · 88.6 · 9.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Cavalli — 0.132 · 89.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 27

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.127 · 89.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 31

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.118 · 85.7 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 28

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Leahy — 0.140 · 87.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 31

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Cavalli — 0.086 · 88.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 23

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.089 · 82.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 24

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Cavalli — 0.111 · 86.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 24

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.034 · 85.0 · 2.9% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 14

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Leahy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cade Cavalli — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Abrams Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Leahy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 5 mph out 80°F open

-1

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

7:15p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

77°F

8:15p

-5

↑

6 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:15p

-7

↑

7 mph · cross

72°F

10:15p

-7

↑

7 mph · cross

72°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 80°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 56 C — COOL 29 0.252 95.2 13.8% 35.6%vs RHP 413 23.4% 0.0% 15.8% 26

2 Cj Abrams 49 D — WARM 64 0.230 89.7 9.8% 27.1%vs RHP 396 30.8% 25.0% 13.7% 28

3 Daylen Lile 40 D — WARM 131 0.185 88.6 9.5% 13.5%vs RHP 401 11.2% 0.0% 9.4% 26

4 Dylan Crews 38 D — COOL 149 0.147 90.3 9.4% 10.9%vs RHP 407 13.1% 10.0% 6.4% 29

5 Keibert Ruiz 36 D — WARM 165 0.171 88.0 6.9% 10.6%vs RHP 380 10.8% 14.3% 9.3% 18

6 Jacob Young 31 D — COOL 195 0.140 87.6 7.4% 11.9%vs RHP 399 6.4% 0.0% 6.2% 19

7 Jorbit Vivas 24 D — COOL 220 0.089 82.8 5.5% 6.0%vs RHP 392 2.3% 0.0% 5.9% 16

8 Nasim Nunez 14 D — COOL 227 0.034 85.0 2.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 9

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.28 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 44 D — · 98 0.204 92.5 9.8% 25.3%vs RHP 406 16.7% 0.0% 11.9% 25

2 Alec Burleson 43 D — COOL 108 0.187 91.9 9.0% 21.8%vs RHP 405 14.4% 16.7% 12.7% 33

3 Nolan Gorman 34 D — · 174 0.128 89.4 8.6% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.2% 10.0% 6.6% 25

4 Jj Wetherholt 31 D — COOL 190 0.127 89.9 7.4% 15.9%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 8.4% 2

5 Nathan Church 28 D — COOL 210 0.118 85.7 6.4% 13.3%vs RHP 386 7.3% 0.0% 6.5% 36

6 Ivan Herrera 27 D — · 211 0.132 89.4 6.2% 19.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 33

7 José Fermín 24 D — COOL 219 0.111 86.1 4.0% 6.1%vs RHP 390 5.3% 0.0% 5.9% 20

8 Masyn Winn 23 D — COOL 223 0.086 88.2 5.0% 7.7%vs RHP 385 4.0% 0.0% 6.1% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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