TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.18×

CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 7 mph cross 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +2

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 33 · vs Burns ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 41 · vs Holmes → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 82

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — C+ ●●●●●

2 Michael Busch — D ●●○○○

3 Alex Bregman — D ●●○○○

FADE Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 62

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●●

2 Eugenio Suarez — D ●●○○○

3 Sal Stewart — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 33.3% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Elly De La Cruz HOT vs Holmes Edge — 0.232 · 94.8 · 8.9% 53.8% 28.4% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Burns Edge — 0.299 · 90.8 · 10.3% 33.3% 33.3% F B O C+ 69

· — Sal Stewart COOL vs Holmes — 0.206 · 90.2 · 7.9% 7.7% 13.6% F B O C 52

· CHC Ian Happ vs Burns Edge — 0.191 · 89.5 · 9.4% 0.0% 14.7% F B O C 51

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Burns — 0.203 · 88.6 · 9.1% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CHC Michael Busch vs Burns Edge — 0.154 · 88.3 · 8.5% 18.2% 14.3% F B O D 47

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Burns — 0.193 · 88.1 · 6.8% 16.7% 12.9% F B O D 48

· — Eugenio Suarez vs Holmes — 0.218 · 88.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 26.0% F B O D 48

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Holmes — 0.169 · 91.1 · 7.9% 8.3% 10.8% F B O D 46

· — Dane Myers vs Holmes — 0.115 · 89.5 · 4.7% 10.0% 7.3% F B O D 37

· — Matt Mclain vs Holmes — 0.153 · 88.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 43

· — Jj Bleday COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.198 · 88.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 47

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Burns — 0.125 · 86.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 37

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Burns — 0.090 · 85.9 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Chase Burns — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Clay Holmes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Bregman Busch Cruz Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Elly De La Cruz — · 64

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 69

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 7 mph cross 78°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

78°F

6:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · cross

75°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · cross

73°F

8:40p

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

72°F

9:40p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 78°F, wind 7 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chase Burns · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 69 C+ — WARM 2 0.299 90.8 10.3% 28.4%vs RHP 396 23.5% 33.3% 33.3% 38

2 Ian Happ 51 C — WARM 46 0.191 89.5 9.4% 23.8%vs RHP 402 16.6% 0.0% 14.7% 19

3 Seiya Suzuki 50 C — WARM 54 0.203 88.6 9.1% 18.2%vs RHP 406 15.5% 0.0% 12.3% 33

4 Alex Bregman 48 D — · 68 0.193 88.1 6.8% 18.6%vs RHP 389 13.3% 16.7% 12.9% 37

5 Michael Busch 47 D — · 77 0.154 88.3 8.5% 12.8%vs RHP 403 13.2% 18.2% 14.3% 29

6 Carson Kelly 37 D — COOL 158 0.125 86.9 6.5% 9.3%vs RHP 403 8.3% 0.0% 7.0% 25

7 Nico Hoerner 29 D — WARM 207 0.090 85.9 3.4% 6.2%vs RHP 383 5.3% 0.0% 6.7% 46

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 64 C+ — HOT 7 0.232 94.8 8.9% 23.9%vs RHP 404 18.8% 53.8% 28.4% 33

2 Sal Stewart 52 C — COOL 40 0.206 90.2 7.9% 23.5%vs RHP 397 17.4% 7.7% 13.6% 36

3 Eugenio Suarez 48 D — WARM 65 0.218 88.5 7.7% 30.0%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 26

4 Jj Bleday 47 D — COOL 72 0.198 88.5 6.9% 21.2%vs RHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 13.9% 25

5 Tyler Stephenson 46 D — · 84 0.169 91.1 7.9% 20.3%vs RHP 392 9.8% 8.3% 10.8% 29

6 Matt Mclain 43 D — · 105 0.153 88.3 6.9% 12.5%vs RHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 14.8% 21

7 Dane Myers 37 D — WARM 157 0.115 89.5 4.7% 10.5%vs RHP 383 7.1% 10.0% 7.3% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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