TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.88×

MIA @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 8 mph cross 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

6:40p

-8 ↑

7:40p

-8 ↑

8:40p

-7 ↑

9:40p

-7 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks -7

Best of game Manny Machado conv 26 · vs Phillips ⟷ Javier Sanoja conv 12 · vs Pivetta → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 77

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado — C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill — D ●●○○○

3 Fernando Tatis — D ●○○○○

FADE Nick Pivetta RHP · SD

leak 3

0.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

2 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

3 Kyle Stowers — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: Match 20.6% · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado ✶ vs Phillips — 0.191 · 90.3 · 8.8% 30.8% 20.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Phillips Edge — 0.188 · 91.5 · 10.0% 15.4% 14.6% F B O D 49

· MIA Javier Sanoja HOT vs Pivetta — 0.157 · 87.0 · 4.8% 16.7% 7.5% F B O D 31

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.130 · 87.4 · 5.7% 18.2% 5.8% F B O D 30

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Pivetta Edge — 0.214 · 92.4 · 10.4% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 45

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Phillips — 0.176 · 92.9 · 10.1% 0.0% 17.0% F B O D 43

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Phillips — 0.110 · 89.5 · 6.8% 7.7% 7.3% F B O D 34

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Phillips Edge — 0.080 · 87.0 · 5.2% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 28

· SD Ty France vs Phillips — 0.213 · 91.9 · 8.7% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 47

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Pivetta — 0.218 · 91.1 · 10.7% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 41

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Phillips — 0.112 · 87.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 31

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Pivetta — 0.132 · 89.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 30

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.092 · 86.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 4.4% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nick Pivetta — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Phillips — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Phillips fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Manny Machado — · 51

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 8 mph cross 74°F open

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

74°F

6:40p

-8

↑

7 mph · cross

72°F

7:40p

-8

↑

6 mph · cross

71°F

8:40p

-7

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

9:40p · peak

-7

↑

4 mph · in

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 74°F, wind 8 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Pivetta · RHP 0.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.23 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 45 D — · 93 0.214 92.4 10.4% 23.0%vs RHP 400 14.0% 10.0% 9.7% 25

2 Heriberto Hernández 41 D — · 119 0.218 91.1 10.7% 25.0%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 36

3 Javier Sanoja 31 D — HOT 192 0.157 87.0 4.8% 11.5%vs RHP 383 8.3% 16.7% 7.5% 46

4 Otto Lopez 30 D — COOL 200 0.132 89.1 7.2% 8.4%vs RHP 402 6.1% 0.0% 6.0% 39

5 Jakob Marsee 30 D — COOL 201 0.130 87.4 5.7% 12.5%vs RHP 386 9.0% 18.2% 5.8% 36

6 Xavier Edwards 23 D — COOL 224 0.092 86.8 5.3% 2.6%vs RHP 396 3.7% 0.0% 4.4% 8

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 51 C — WARM 45 0.191 90.3 8.8% 26.7%vs RHP 397 17.8% 30.8% 20.6% 42

2 Jackson Merrill 49 D — WARM 56 0.188 91.5 10.0% 20.6%vs RHP 410 15.9% 15.4% 14.6% 46

3 Ty France 47 D — · 78 0.213 91.9 8.7% 25.4%vs RHP 390 14.7% 0.0% 13.4% 31

4 Fernando Tatis 43 D — · 104 0.176 92.9 10.1% 17.3%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 43

5 Xander Bogaerts 34 D — WARM 175 0.110 89.5 6.8% 14.9%vs RHP 404 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 36

6 Freddy Fermin 31 D — WARM 191 0.112 87.7 5.7% 6.2%vs RHP 382 2.0% 0.0% 8.0% 7

7 Jake Cronenworth 28 D — WARM 209 0.080 87.0 5.2% 9.1%vs RHP 382 2.9% 8.3% 6.6% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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