TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CWS

Playable air · 1.06×

DET @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 32 · vs Sandlin ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 30 · vs Sears → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK David Sandlin RHP · CWS

leak 76

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Riley Greene — C ●●●●○

3 Dillon Dingler — C ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Sears LHP · DET

leak 76

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.90 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●●

2 Colson Montgomery — C ●●●●○

3 Miguel Vargas — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 32.1% · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Sandlin — 0.195 · 89.5 · 10.0% 40.0% 24.8% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs Sears — 0.266 · 93.8 · 11.1% 27.3% 32.1% F B O C+ 67

· DET Riley Greene vs Sandlin Edge — 0.194 · 90.3 · 11.0% 21.4% 27.1% F B O C 59

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Sears — 0.216 · 88.8 · 9.1% 18.2% 29.1% F B O C 59

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Sears Edge — 0.223 · 90.1 · 9.3% 16.7% 15.6% F B O C 58

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Sandlin — 0.210 · 88.5 · 8.8% 9.1% 16.0% F B O C 56

· CWS Randal Grichuk COOL vs Sears Edge — 0.274 · 91.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 24.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Colt Keith vs Sandlin Edge — 0.147 · 88.9 · 7.9% 10.0% 14.6% F B O D 46

· DET Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Sandlin — 0.158 · 89.3 · 8.2% 10.0% 11.2% F B O D 49

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Sears Edge — 0.131 · 87.3 · 5.3% 7.7% 9.5% F B O D 39

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Sears Edge — 0.126 · 88.9 · 5.4% 10.0% 6.5% F B O D 39

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Sandlin Edge — 0.148 · 87.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 47

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Sears — 0.173 · 89.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 46

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Sears — 0.179 · 87.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 44

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Sandlin Edge — 0.096 · 85.7 · 4.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 34

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Sandlin — 0.108 · 86.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Sears — 0.122 · 87.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for David Sandlin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Sears — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Torkelson Greene Murakami Montgomery Vargas

Legend

attack side — vs Sandlin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Spencer Torkelson — · 60

Munetaka Murakami — · 67

Riley Greene — · 59

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.06× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.06× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs David Sandlin · RHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson 60 C+ — WARM 15 0.195 89.5 10.0% 25.6%vs RHP 391 15.5% 40.0% 24.8% 25

2 Riley Greene 59 C — WARM 17 0.194 90.3 11.0% 17.6%vs RHP 399 12.9% 21.4% 27.1% 40

3 Dillon Dingler 56 C — COOL 28 0.210 88.5 8.8% 26.7%vs RHP 398 17.4% 9.1% 16.0% 32

4 Hao-Yu Lee 49 D — COOL 62 0.158 89.3 8.2% 20.0%vs RHP 400 15.9% 10.0% 11.2% 25

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 47 D — · 71 0.148 87.9 7.6% 11.4%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 16.2% 42

6 Colt Keith 46 D — WARM 80 0.147 88.9 7.9% 13.7%vs RHP 382 6.7% 10.0% 14.6% 16

7 Gleyber Torres 40 D — COOL 133 0.108 86.4 7.1% 14.0%vs RHP 393 8.0% 0.0% 8.6% 31

8 Zach Mckinstry 34 D — COOL 172 0.096 85.7 4.0% 5.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 23

vs Andrew Sears · LHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.90 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 67 C+ — COOL 3 0.266 93.8 11.1% 28.6%vs LHP 402 18.8% 27.3% 32.1% 18

2 Colson Montgomery 59 C — WARM 18 0.216 88.8 9.1% 31.2%vs LHP 397 21.3% 18.2% 29.1% 16

3 Miguel Vargas 58 C — COOL 21 0.223 90.1 9.3% 27.9%vs LHP 392 19.4% 16.7% 15.6% 38

4 Randal Grichuk 57 C — COOL 24 0.274 91.4 8.5% 24.3%vs LHP 387 12.5% 0.0% 24.2% 26

5 Andrew Benintendi 46 D — WARM 83 0.173 89.2 7.4% 11.6% 388 11.8% 0.0% 10.9% 21

6 Tristan Peters 44 D — COOL 99 0.179 87.4 6.1% 9.1%vs LHP 377 10.6% 0.0% 10.9% 30

7 Chase Meidroth 39 D — WARM 137 0.131 87.3 5.3% 23.1%vs LHP 382 7.5% 7.7% 9.5% 35

8 Braden Montgomery 39 D — WARM 140 0.126 88.9 5.4% 6.7%vs LHP 395 6.6% 10.0% 6.5% 25

9 Sam Antonacci 38 D — COOL 148 0.122 87.3 5.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 7.1% 0.0% 6.7% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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