TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.35×

ATL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 7 mph slight_out 89°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:10p

+10 ↑

8:10p

+10 ↑

9:10p

+9 ↑

10:10p

+8 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 8:10p at +10

Best of game Cam Smith conv 26 · vs Mahle ⟷ Matt Olson conv 17 · vs Lambert → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 63

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cam Smith — C ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●●○

3 Jeremy Peña — C ●●●○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 10

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●○○

2 Austin Riley — D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 18.6% · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Cam Smith COOL vs Mahle — 0.182 · 88.8 · 8.6% 27.3% 24.9% F B O C 56

· — Isaac Paredes vs Mahle — 0.171 · 86.1 · 5.6% 25.0% 22.4% F B O C 50

· — Jeremy Peña vs Mahle — 0.198 · 88.5 · 6.7% 16.7% 28.8% F B O C 55

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.253 · 92.4 · 9.8% 15.4% 18.6% F B O C+ 64

· — Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.288 · 94.3 · 10.4% 0.0% 32.0% F B O C+ 63

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.174 · 91.5 · 9.0% 15.4% 11.6% F B O C 53

· — Taylor Trammell vs Mahle Edge — 0.160 · 88.5 · 9.2% 12.5% 13.6% F B O C 51

· — Christian Walker COOL vs Mahle — 0.190 · 88.8 · 7.7% 9.1% 15.7% F B O C 53

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Lambert — 0.193 · 90.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 24.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Yainer Diaz vs Mahle — 0.159 · 89.0 · 6.4% 20.0% 17.5% F B O D 49

· ATL Austin Riley vs Lambert — 0.141 · 91.3 · 8.8% 15.4% 15.6% F B O D 49

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Lambert Edge — 0.163 · 87.2 · 5.1% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 45

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.193 · 90.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 48

· — Christian Vazquez COOL vs Mahle — 0.118 · 85.9 · 3.7% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 36

· — Jose Altuve COOL vs Mahle — 0.150 · 85.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 40

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.121 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 41

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.149 · 90.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 44

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Lambert — 0.121 · 86.5 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Peter Lambert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Mahle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Riley Alvarez Smith Peña Trammell Paredes Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Cam Smith — · 56

Isaac Paredes — · 50

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.12× Wind 7 mph slight_out 89°F retractable

↑

7 mph · slight_out

89°F

7:10p

+10

↑

6 mph · slight_out

87°F

8:10p · peak

+10

↑

5 mph · out

85°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

83°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

82°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 89°F, wind 7 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 64 C+ — COOL 8 0.253 92.4 9.8% 27.9%vs RHP 406 22.7% 15.4% 18.6% 38

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C — COOL 35 0.174 91.5 9.0% 21.6%vs RHP 401 15.8% 15.4% 11.6% 42

3 Ronald Acuna 50 C — · 48 0.193 90.0 9.1% 24.0%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 24.7% 45

4 Austin Riley 49 D — WARM 60 0.141 91.3 8.8% 18.5%vs RHP 410 9.3% 15.4% 15.6% 26

5 Michael Harris 48 D — COOL 67 0.193 90.3 8.1% 24.3%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 41

6 Ozzie Albies 45 D — WARM 94 0.163 87.2 5.1% 12.5%vs RHP 388 13.2% 8.3% 9.6% 41

7 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D — COOL 101 0.149 90.2 6.7% 14.9%vs RHP 391 7.3% 0.0% 9.7% 19

8 Dominic Smith 41 D — COOL 123 0.121 87.7 5.9% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 9.9% 4

9 Mauricio Dubon 36 D — · 162 0.121 86.5 4.9% 9.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 44

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 63 C+ — COOL 9 0.288 94.3 10.4% 24.8%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 32.0% 27

2 Cam Smith 56 C — COOL 27 0.182 88.8 8.6% 21.7%vs RHP 410 13.5% 27.3% 24.9% 25

3 Jeremy Peña 55 C — · 31 0.198 88.5 6.7% 27.3%vs RHP 389 16.3% 16.7% 28.8% 32

4 Christian Walker 53 C — COOL 38 0.190 88.8 7.7% 23.3%vs RHP 393 16.3% 9.1% 15.7% 30

5 Taylor Trammell 51 C — WARM 47 0.160 88.5 9.2% 17.9%vs RHP 406 12.2% 12.5% 13.6% 17

6 Isaac Paredes 50 C — · 50 0.171 86.1 5.6% 17.8%vs RHP 377 13.0% 25.0% 22.4% 34

7 Yainer Diaz 49 D — WARM 59 0.159 89.0 6.4% 31.2%vs RHP 390 11.2% 20.0% 17.5% 33

8 Jose Altuve 40 D — COOL 127 0.150 85.4 5.4% 18.5%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 43

9 Christian Vazquez 36 D — COOL 163 0.118 85.9 3.7% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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