TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.81×

MIN @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 4 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:38p

-2 ↑

7:38p

-2 ↑

8:38p

-4 ↑

9:38p

-4 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at -1

Best of game Zach Neto conv 21 · vs Prielipp ⟷ Trevor Larnach conv 22 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 82

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — D ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout — D ●○○○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 79

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●●○○

3 Kody Clemens — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 13.5% · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.227 · 92.1 · 10.0% 15.4% 13.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.166 · 87.7 · 8.1% 28.6% 14.9% F B O D 42

· LAA Zach Neto vs Prielipp Edge — 0.199 · 89.7 · 8.9% 23.1% 18.6% F B O D 47

· MIN Josh Bell vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.167 · 89.7 · 9.2% 25.0% 15.2% F B O D 45

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Prielipp — 0.156 · 88.6 · 7.9% 22.2% 9.8% F B O D 38

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.178 · 88.1 · 6.0% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 40

· LAA Mike Trout vs Prielipp Edge — 0.181 · 89.9 · 10.4% 7.7% 9.6% F B O D 43

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Prielipp Edge — 0.143 · 87.7 · 6.8% 7.7% 6.2% F B O D 33

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.155 · 89.8 · 9.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Prielipp Edge — 0.112 · 87.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 29

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.096 · 89.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 30

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.108 · 85.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.088 · 86.9 · 5.1% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 27

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Prielipp — 0.087 · 86.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Grayson Rodriguez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Connor Prielipp — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Larnach Neto Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Prielipp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Zach Neto — · 47

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 4 mph out 77°F open

-1

↑

4 mph · out

77°F

6:38p · peak

-2

↑

4 mph · out

74°F

7:38p

-2

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

8:38p

-4

↑

2 mph · out

72°F

9:38p

-4

↑

2 mph · slight_out

71°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.81× 77°F, wind 4 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 52 C — COOL 39 0.227 92.1 10.0% 21.2%vs RHP 390 17.9% 15.4% 13.5% 38

2 Josh Bell 45 D — WARM 89 0.167 89.7 9.2% 20.6%vs RHP 407 12.2% 25.0% 15.2% 37

3 Trevor Larnach 42 D — COOL 112 0.166 87.7 8.1% 17.2%vs RHP 389 10.4% 28.6% 14.9% 13

4 Royce Lewis 41 D — COOL 121 0.155 89.8 9.8% 15.4%vs RHP 402 13.0% 0.0% 8.3% 31

5 Brooks Lee 40 D — WARM 130 0.178 88.1 6.0% 20.4%vs RHP 374 15.7% 8.3% 9.9% 38

6 Victor Caratini 30 D — COOL 197 0.096 89.4 7.5% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 14

7 Luke Keaschall 29 D — COOL 208 0.108 85.4 5.4% 9.6%vs RHP 378 6.7% 0.0% 6.5% 45

8 Austin Martin 27 D — COOL 213 0.088 86.9 5.1% 4.0%vs RHP 394 2.9% 0.0% 5.9% 9

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 47 D — · 75 0.199 89.7 8.9% 19.5%vs LHP 404 16.6% 23.1% 18.6% 33

2 Mike Trout 43 D — · 106 0.181 89.9 10.4% 16.1%vs LHP 409 13.0% 7.7% 9.6% 28

3 Josh Lowe 38 D — WARM 145 0.156 88.6 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 393 10.4% 22.2% 9.8% 13

4 Vaughn Grissom 33 D — COOL 178 0.143 87.7 6.8% 3.7%vs LHP 388 9.3% 7.7% 6.2% 33

5 Oswald Peraza 29 D — WARM 204 0.112 87.4 6.6% 22.7%vs LHP 386 4.7% 0.0% 7.5% 9

6 Wade Meckler 25 D — COOL 217 0.087 86.9 4.5% 7.0% 396 5.0% 0.0% 5.7% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.