TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ COL

Neutral air · 1.02×

SEA @ COL

Coors Field · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 5 mph in 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:10p

-3 ↑

7:10p

+0 ↑

8:10p

+1 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 9:10p window peaks +1

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 25 · vs Woo ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 20 · vs Proxy → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 58

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros — D ●●●○○

FADE COL Bullpen Proxy · COL

leak 57

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●○○

2 Cal Raleigh — C+ ●●○○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 27.2% · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Woo — 0.284 · 90.1 · 10.3% 22.2% 27.2% F B O C+ 63

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Proxy — 0.198 · 90.8 · 7.8% 16.7% 23.3% F B O C 55

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Proxy — 0.189 · 90.0 · 14.7% 16.7% 15.7% F B O C+ 61

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Woo Edge — 0.242 · 89.5 · 8.3% 12.5% 17.5% F B O C 53

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Proxy — 0.223 · 91.1 · 12.1% 8.3% 15.2% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Woo Edge — 0.198 · 87.9 · 6.2% 23.1% 20.5% F B O D 46

· COL Kyle Karros vs Woo — 0.165 · 89.4 · 7.8% 22.2% 15.4% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Woo — 0.123 · 87.5 · 6.8% 11.1% 8.1% F B O D 37

· SEA Cole Young vs Proxy — 0.139 · 88.2 · 5.1% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 41

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Proxy — 0.154 · 90.4 · 8.9% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 49

· COL Jake Mccarthy HOT vs Woo Edge — 0.190 · 85.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 42

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Woo Edge — 0.154 · 84.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 37

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Proxy — 0.126 · 87.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Proxy — 0.092 · 87.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· COL Troy Johnston vs Woo Edge — 0.116 · 89.8 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for COL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bryan Woo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Arozarena Goodman Moniak Carrigg Karros

Legend

attack side — vs Woo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Hunter Goodman — · 63

Cole Carrigg — · 46

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 5 mph in 70°F open

-4

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

6:10p

-3

↑

4 mph · in

68°F

7:10p

↑

3 mph · cross

67°F

8:10p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

65°F

9:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

65°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 70°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs COL Bullpen Proxy 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh 61 C+ — WARM 23 0.189 90.0 14.7% 14.6% 383 16.0% 16.7% 15.7% 31

2 Dominic Canzone 60 C+ — · 26 0.223 91.1 12.1% 20.0% 403 15.0% 8.3% 15.2% 41

3 Randy Arozarena 55 C — · 42 0.198 90.8 7.8% 21.7% 387 15.6% 16.7% 23.3% 35

4 Julio Rodríguez 49 D — WARM 86 0.154 90.4 8.9% 15.3% 404 14.6% 8.3% 9.9% 38

5 Cole Young 41 D — WARM 152 0.139 88.2 5.1% 10.9% 384 11.1% 10.0% 8.4% 32

6 J.P. Crawford 37 D — COOL 176 0.126 87.8 6.1% 13.0% 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 42

7 Josh Naylor 33 D — COOL 202 0.092 87.1 4.3% 6.9% 392 5.4% 0.0% 7.4% 45

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 11 0.284 90.1 10.3% 35.5%vs RHP 408 23.6% 22.2% 27.2% 28

2 Mickey Moniak 53 C — · 36 0.242 89.5 8.3% 22.9%vs RHP 416 16.3% 12.5% 17.5% 19

3 Cole Carrigg 46 D — · 79 0.198 87.9 6.2% 14.7%vs RHP 407 10.4% 23.1% 20.5% 36

4 Kyle Karros 45 D — WARM 88 0.165 89.4 7.8% 19.1%vs RHP 418 11.5% 22.2% 15.4% 28

5 Jake Mccarthy 42 D — HOT 113 0.190 85.6 6.3% 15.5%vs RHP 415 10.0% 0.0% 11.8% 46

6 Tj Rumfield 37 D — · 154 0.154 84.1 5.9% 12.4%vs RHP 412 10.0% 0.0% 9.1% 36

7 Ezequiel Tovar 37 D — COOL 155 0.123 87.5 6.8% 14.3%vs RHP 404 7.8% 11.1% 8.1% 20

8 Troy Johnston 31 D — WARM 194 0.116 89.8 4.0% 4.0%vs RHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 6.8% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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