Nathan Lukes
TOR
· 126 appearances tracked
9
HRs
7.1%
HR Rate
9.2%
Avg HR/FB
86.6
Avg EV
0.102
ISO
#15
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
No HR profile for this matchup yet.
The percentile ladder populates once this batter is on a scored slate.
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-10-17
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
61.6%
2
Breaking
23.4%
5
Offspeed
15.0%
3
All
100%
2.5%
10
14.1%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
head-to-head
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No probable pitcher set for this matchup. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
0 of 4 active
Ballpark —
Pitcher form —
Platoon —
Weather —
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
K%
14.1
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
126 tracked · 9 HR · 2 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Sep 26
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
3
87.1
3 BIP
Sep 25
vs CIN · Nick Lodolo
3
97.6
3 BIP
Sep 23
@ BAL · Trey Gibson
8
101.1
8 BIP
Sep 22
@ BAL · Chris Bassitt
0
—
—
Sep 21
@ BAL · Shane Baz
3
96.2
3 BIP
Sep 20
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
4
102.5
4 BIP
Sep 19
@ TEX · Cal Quantrill
2
96.7
2 BIP
Sep 18
@ TEX · Kumar Rocker
2
99.2
2 BIP
Sep 16
vs DET · Keider Montero
3
61.9
3 BIP
Sep 15
vs DET · Drew Anderson
2
66.7
2 BIP
Sep 14
vs DET · Troy Melton
3
97.3
3 BIP
Sep 12
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
3
101.1
3 BIP
Sep 11
vs BAL · Chris Bassitt
3
91.8
3 BIP
Sep 8
@ ATH · Jack Perkins
4
94.9
4 BIP
Sep 7
@ ATH · Jacob Lopez
4
98.8
4 BIP
Sep 6
@ KC · Randy Dobnak
3
101.5
3 BIP
Sep 5
@ KC · Seth Lugo
5
98.9
5 BIP
Sep 4
@ KC · Daniel Lynch IV
4
97.0
4 BIP
Sep 3
@ CLE · Tanner Bibee
5
101.6
5 BIP
Sep 2
@ CLE · Joey Cantillo
4
92.9
4 BIP
Sep 1
@ CLE · Gavin Williams
2
94.6
2 BIP
Aug 30
vs SEA · Logan Gilbert
2
98.6
2 BIP
Aug 28
vs SEA · Emerson Hancock
4
101.5
HR
4 BIP
Aug 27
vs KC · Noah Cameron
3
94.5
3 BIP
Aug 26
vs KC · Randy Dobnak
2
98.6
HR
2 BIP
Aug 25
vs KC · Seth Lugo
4
100.3
4 BIP
Aug 21
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
99.3
3 BIP
Aug 20
@ TB · Ian Seymour
3
97.4
HR
3 BIP
Aug 19
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
2
93.5
2 BIP
Aug 18
@ TB · Nick Martinez
3
98.7
3 BIP
Aug 15
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
5
99.0
5 BIP
Aug 14
vs NYY · Gerrit Cole
3
87.6
3 BIP
Aug 13
vs BOS · Payton Tolle
3
91.8
3 BIP
Aug 10
vs BOS · Sonny Gray
4
97.9
4 BIP
Aug 8
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
6
100.6
HR
6 BIP
Aug 7
@ PHI · Zack Wheeler
4
99.0
4 BIP
Aug 6
@ CHC · David Peterson
4
94.8
4 BIP
Aug 5
@ HOU · Hunter Brown
2
99.0
2 BIP
Aug 4
@ HOU · Hayden Wesneski
4
98.2
4 BIP
Aug 3
@ HOU · Cristian Javier
4
93.3
4 BIP
Jul 31
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
2
94.3
2 BIP
Jul 29
@ WSH · Zack Littell
2
96.3
2 BIP
Jul 28
@ WSH · Cade Cavalli
4
99.7
4 BIP
Jul 27
@ WSH · WSH Bullpen Proxy
3
96.0
3 BIP
Jul 26
@ BOS · Ranger Suarez
2
90.1
2 BIP
Jul 25
@ BOS · Sonny Gray
4
91.8
4 BIP
Jul 22
vs TB · Griffin Jax
3
88.8
3 BIP
Jul 21
vs TB · Drew Rasmussen
4
97.3
4 BIP
Jul 20
vs TB · Nick Martinez
4
87.2
4 BIP
Jul 19
vs CWS · Sean Burke
4
101.8
4 BIP
Jul 18
vs CWS · Davis Martin
2
83.4
2 BIP
Jul 12
@ SD · Germán Márquez
3
97.9
HR
3 BIP
Jul 11
@ SD · Walker Buehler
3
99.4
3 BIP
Jul 10
@ SD · JP Sears
1
72.3
1 BIP
Jul 8
@ SF · Logan Webb
4
106.1
4 BIP
Jul 7
@ SF · Trevor McDonald
3
89.2
3 BIP
Jul 6
@ SF · Landen Roupp
4
95.1
4 BIP
Jul 5
@ SEA · Emerson Hancock
3
99.2
3 BIP
Jul 4
@ SEA · Logan Gilbert
4
92.8
4 BIP
Jul 3
@ SEA · Luis Castillo
4
104.6
4 BIP
Jul 1
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
4
101.5
4 BIP
Jun 30
vs NYM · Nolan McLean
3
99.3
3 BIP
Jun 29
vs NYM · Sean Manaea
3
91.7
3 BIP
Jun 28
vs TEX · Kumar Rocker
3
102.4
HR
3 BIP
Jun 27
vs TEX · Cal Quantrill
3
96.6
3 BIP
Jun 26
vs TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
3
91.0
3 BIP
Jun 25
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
1
77.9
1 BIP
Jun 24
vs HOU · Mike Burrows
3
98.8
HR
3 BIP
Jun 22
vs HOU · Hunter Brown
3
92.2
3 BIP
Jun 21
@ CHC · Shota Imanaga
0
—
—
Jun 20
@ CHC · Colin Rea
3
98.3
3 BIP
Jun 19
@ CHC · Ben Brown
3
94.5
3 BIP
Jun 18
@ BOS · Sonny Gray
4
100.4
HR
4 BIP
Jun 16
@ BOS · Payton Tolle
4
91.1
4 BIP
Jun 14
vs NYY · Will Warren
5
93.9
5 BIP
Jun 13
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
1
73.7
1 BIP
Jun 12
vs NYY · Ryan Weathers
2
98.8
2 BIP
Jun 10
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
1
91.1
1 BIP
Jun 9
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
4
93.5
4 BIP
Jun 8
vs PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
3
98.7
3 BIP
Jun 6
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
3
90.8
3 BIP
Jun 5
vs BAL · Brandon Young
3
98.1
3 BIP
Jun 4
@ ATL · Chris Sale
3
102.5
3 BIP
Jun 3
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
5
96.9
HR
5 BIP
Jun 2
@ ATL · Bryce Elder
4
101.8
4 BIP
May 31
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
4
98.1
4 BIP
May 30
@ BAL · Brandon Young
2
102.5
2 BIP
May 28
@ BAL · Chris Bassitt
4
89.3
4 BIP
May 27
vs MIA · Eury Pérez
2
100.8
2 BIP
May 25
vs MIA · Janson Junk
3
102.7
3 BIP
May 13
vs TB · Griffin Jax
0
—
—
May 12
vs TB · Shane McClanahan
0
—
—
May 11
vs TB · Drew Rasmussen
0
—
—
May 10
vs LAA · José Soriano
0
—
—
May 9
vs LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
0
—
—
May 8
vs LAA · Reid Detmers
0
—
—
May 5
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
0
—
—
May 4
@ TB · Nick Martinez
0
—
—
May 3
@ MIN · Joe Ryan
0
—
—
May 2
@ MIN · Connor Prielipp
0
—
—
May 1
@ MIN · Simeon Woods Richardson
0
—
—
Apr 30
@ MIN · Bailey Ober
0
—
—
Apr 29
vs BOS · Brayan Bello
0
—
—
Apr 28
vs BOS · Payton Tolle
0
—
—
Apr 27
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
0
—
—
Apr 25
vs CLE · Joey Cantillo
0
—
—
Apr 24
vs CLE · Gavin Williams
1
99.1
1 BIP
Apr 22
@ LAA · José Soriano
4
107.2
4 BIP
Apr 21
@ LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
2
91.3
2 BIP
Apr 20
@ LAA · Reid Detmers
2
95.1
2 BIP
Apr 19
@ AZ · Ryne Nelson
5
107.5
5 BIP
Apr 18
@ AZ · Zac Gallen
5
105.8
5 BIP
Apr 17
@ AZ · Michael Soroka
1
97.2
1 BIP
Apr 14
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
1
100.5
1 BIP
Apr 12
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
3
85.0
3 BIP
Apr 11
vs MIN · Joe Ryan
3
93.9
3 BIP
Apr 8
vs LAD · Shohei Ohtani
2
102.8
2 BIP
Apr 7
vs LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1
97.6
1 BIP
Apr 6
vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski
0
—
—
Apr 5
@ CWS · Davis Martin
3
101.5
3 BIP
Apr 4
@ CWS · Grant Taylor
2
80.6
2 BIP
Apr 2
@ CWS · Sean Burke
0
—
—
Apr 1
vs COL · Kyle Freeland
2
86.5
2 BIP
Mar 31
vs COL · Ryan Feltner
2
96.9
2 BIP
Mar 30
vs COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
1
70.6
1 BIP
Mar 27
vs ATH · Luis Severino
3
107.3
3 BIP
Ballpark
park factor · wind · spray
Ballpark conditions unavailable — this batter isn’t on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game —
Dueness now
3.14×
overdue — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
7 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
22 gm
since his last HR, Aug 28
Season
9 HR
126 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 8 gaps · median 7 gm · MAD ± 4.0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Common questions about Nathan Lukes
Will Nathan Lukes hit a home run today?
Nathan Lukes is not on today's TheHomeRuns slate. This season he has homered 9 times in 126 scored games (about 7% of games). Check back when he next appears on the daily board.
How often does Nathan Lukes hit home runs?
Across 126 scored games this season, Nathan Lukes has 9 home runs — one every 14.0 games, or about 7% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.