2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jeremy Peña 5 HRs · 2 Drake Baldwin 4 HRs · 3 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 4 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 5 Esmerlyn Valdez 4 HRs · 6 Ceddanne Rafaela 4 HRs · 7 Max Muncy 4 HRs · 8 Matt Olson 4 HRs · 9 Nick Gonzales 4 HRs · 10 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 11 Ty France 4 HRs · 12 Trea Turner 4 HRs 1 Jeremy Peña 5 HRs · 2 Drake Baldwin 4 HRs · 3 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 4 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 5 Esmerlyn Valdez 4 HRs · 6 Ceddanne Rafaela 4 HRs · 7 Max Muncy 4 HRs · 8 Matt Olson 4 HRs · 9 Nick Gonzales 4 HRs · 10 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 11 Ty France 4 HRs · 12 Trea Turner 4 HRs
Cole Winn

Cole Winn

RHP
0 matchups scored · 0 game days · 6 listed today
0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
18.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.59
FIP
3.89
xFIP
#4
Leakiest SP today (of 20, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter STINGY
LEAKY 82
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
82
no model flags today
Vulnerability 82th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
Hard-Hit% allowed
Fly-ball rate
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
TEX @ TB 12:10p · Tropicana Field Park 0.95 Wind 0.0 — dome BP FIP 4.11 BP HR 13.7% 2L / 3R listed (+1S) · lineup: proxy_pa_leaders
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot
FB 61.3% BRK 22.3% OFF 14.4% Overall Score
Neutral · 1
16.5% 10.7% 6.2% 12.9% C+ 60
Long shots · 5 — below the fade line
83 Jonathan Aranda L Edge
10.8% 13.1% 5.6% 10.3% D 43
95 Cedric Mullins L Edge
3.2% 3.8% 8.6% 4.1% D 39
97 Yandy Diaz R
5.0% 10.9% 5.0% 7.0% D 38
2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 28
136 Taylor Walls S Edge
3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% D 27
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard 31.0% 82.7 18.9° 1 -0.8
Fastball Hard 30.3% 84.6 23.6° 1 +0.0
Slider Breaking 22.3% 79.1 -4.4° 2 +1.6
Splitter Offspeed 14.4% 79.8 9.4° 1 +1.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB18.0% 82
HR/9
FIP4.59 69
xFIP3.89
FIP − xFIP
Barrel% allowed
Hard-Hit% allowed
FB%
K/9
BB/9
WHIP
IP
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-30
Cutter
Hard · 31.0% usage
-0.8 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle18.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches178
Fastball
Hard · 30.3% usage
+0.0 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle23.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches174
Slider
Breaking · 22.3% usage
+1.6 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.1 mph
Avg launch angle-4.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches128
Splitter
Offspeed · 14.4% usage
+1.8 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle9.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches83
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
Junior Caminero R 1 0 0 0 .000
Jonathan Aranda L 1 0 0 0 .696
Cedric Mullins L 0 never faced
Yandy Diaz R 1 0 0 1 .000
Ben Williamson R 1 0 0 0 .000
Taylor Walls S 0 never faced
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Cole Winn.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Tropicana Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor 0.951 Wind 0 mph from — Temp Roof
TimeWindTempFIT
12:10p 0 -1
1:10p 0 -1
2:10p 0 -1
3:10p 0 -1
4:10p 0 -1
-1
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 0 mph
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
315ft
short
CF
404ft
avg
RF
322ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
340ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF
345ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: LF 315 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Cole Winn.
Six home runs to freedom

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