Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB
BOS
· 128 appearances tracked
15
HRs
11.7%
HR Rate
14.5%
Avg HR/FB
86.9
Avg EV
0.157
ISO
#18
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.168
Avg EV86.4
Barrel%6.5%
HR/FB vs RHP16.0%
Avg HR Dist382
Match%12.5%
Season HR%
12.2%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-30
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
55.0%
2
Breaking
31.5%
9
Offspeed
13.5%
5
All
100%
5.5%
16
20.5%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Will Warren · RHP · BOS
SMALL SAMPLE · 12 PA · since 2024
.167
AVG
.250
SLG
0
HR
2-for-12 across 12 plate appearances since 2024. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
2 of 4 active
Yankee Stadium +HR
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Even
Weather +4
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
6.5
vs
—
HR/FB
16.0
vs
24.3 ▼ risk
K%
20.5
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
15 this season · avg 385 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Jul 27
@ ATH · José Suarez
—
98.4
382
Aug 2
@ LAD · Emmet Sheehan
—
104.0
388
HR by month
Jul
Aug
All Appearances
128 tracked · 15 HR · 7 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 29
@ NYY · Carlos Rodón
9
102.3
9 BIP
Aug 28
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
2
97.8
2 BIP
Aug 26
@ MIA · Ryan Gusto
3
95.2
3 BIP
Aug 25
@ MIA · Tyler Phillips
4
93.5
4 BIP
Aug 24
@ MIA · Sandy Alcantara
4
96.1
4 BIP
Aug 23
vs SF · SF Bullpen Proxy
4
98.9
4 BIP
Aug 22
vs SF · Blade Tidwell
2
96.2
2 BIP
Aug 21
vs SF · Logan Webb
4
105.0
4 BIP
Aug 19
vs AZ · Brandon Pfaadt
3
79.6
3 BIP
Aug 18
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
5
96.5
5 BIP
Aug 17
vs AZ · Mitch Bratt
5
104.5
5 BIP
Aug 16
@ PIT · Lake Bachar
2
103.0
2 BIP
Aug 15
@ PIT · Jared Jones
2
83.5
2 BIP
Aug 13
@ TOR · Max Scherzer
3
87.5
3 BIP
Aug 12
@ TOR · José Soriano
3
75.3
3 BIP
Aug 11
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
5
101.8
HR
5 BIP
Aug 10
@ TOR · Jameson Taillon
4
94.5
4 BIP
Aug 9
vs ATH · J.T. Ginn
5
104.2
5 BIP
Aug 8
vs ATH · Gage Jump
3
91.2
3 BIP
Aug 7
vs ATH · Jack Perkins
5
95.7
5 BIP
Aug 6
vs CWS · Luis Castillo
5
95.9
5 BIP
Aug 5
vs CWS · Sean Burke
2
84.1
2 BIP
Aug 4
vs CWS · Davis Martin
3
85.8
3 BIP
Aug 2
@ LAD · Emmet Sheehan
3
104.0
HR
3 BIP
Aug 1
@ LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4
102.1
HR
4 BIP
Jul 31
@ LAD · Edgardo Henriquez
4
106.0
HR
4 BIP
Jul 30
@ ATH · Mason Barnett
3
92.2
3 BIP
Jul 29
@ ATH · Jacob Lopez
2
94.8
2 BIP
Jul 28
@ ATH · Gage Jump
2
85.4
2 BIP
Jul 27
@ ATH · Jack Perkins
4
98.4
HR
4 BIP
Jul 26
vs TOR · Kevin Gausman
3
100.6
3 BIP
Jul 25
vs TOR · Dylan Cease
3
100.3
3 BIP
Jul 24
vs TOR · Trey Yesavage
3
101.4
HR
3 BIP
Jul 22
vs BAL · Dean Kremer
8
98.2
HR
8 BIP
Jul 21
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
0
—
—
Jul 20
vs BAL · Shane Baz
2
98.0
2 BIP
Jul 19
vs TB · Shane McClanahan
4
102.8
4 BIP
Jul 18
vs TB · Ian Seymour
4
95.1
4 BIP
Jul 17
vs TB · Mason Englert
7
109.9
7 BIP
Jul 12
@ NYM · Zach Thornton
3
90.8
3 BIP
Jul 11
@ NYM · Freddy Peralta
3
102.8
3 BIP
Jul 10
@ NYM · Nolan McLean
4
91.9
4 BIP
Jul 9
@ CWS · Anthony Kay
4
86.0
4 BIP
Jul 8
@ CWS · Davis Martin
5
101.8
5 BIP
Jul 7
@ CWS · Noah Schultz
4
104.2
HR
4 BIP
Jul 5
@ LAA · Ryan Johnson
3
96.5
3 BIP
Jul 4
@ LAA · Sam Aldegheri
3
81.8
3 BIP
Jul 3
@ LAA · Reid Detmers
4
91.5
4 BIP
Jul 1
vs WSH · Brad Lord
3
102.9
3 BIP
Jun 30
vs WSH · Cade Cavalli
2
81.5
2 BIP
Jun 29
vs WSH · Miles Mikolas
4
92.6
4 BIP
Jun 28
vs NYY · Carlos Rodón
4
88.9
4 BIP
Jun 27
vs NYY · Gerrit Cole
4
98.6
4 BIP
Jun 26
vs NYY · Will Warren
4
93.5
4 BIP
Jun 25
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
96.6
3 BIP
Jun 24
@ COL · Kyle Freeland
3
103.2
3 BIP
Jun 23
@ COL · Sean Sullivan
4
100.1
4 BIP
Jun 22
@ COL · Ryan Feltner
4
95.8
4 BIP
Jun 21
@ SEA · Logan Gilbert
4
97.5
4 BIP
Jun 20
@ SEA · Emerson Hancock
0
—
—
Jun 19
@ SEA · Bryce Miller
2
101.5
2 BIP
Jun 18
vs TOR · Trey Yesavage
4
96.8
4 BIP
Jun 17
vs TOR · Braydon Fisher
4
82.1
4 BIP
Jun 16
vs TOR · Dylan Cease
4
103.4
4 BIP
Jun 14
vs TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
3
83.5
3 BIP
Jun 13
vs TEX · Jacob deGrom
3
99.1
3 BIP
Jun 12
vs TEX · Jack Leiter
5
100.2
HR
5 BIP
Jun 10
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
1
102.9
HR
1 BIP
Jun 9
@ TB · Nick Martinez
4
105.5
4 BIP
Jun 8
@ TB · Ian Seymour
4
98.1
4 BIP
Jun 7
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
98.3
3 BIP
Jun 6
@ NYY · Will Warren
0
—
—
Jun 5
@ NYY · Ryan Weathers
3
88.1
3 BIP
Jun 4
vs BAL · Trevor Rogers
2
101.8
2 BIP
Jun 3
vs BAL · Chris Bassitt
5
92.9
5 BIP
Jun 2
vs BAL · Shane Baz
4
103.7
4 BIP
May 30
@ CLE · Parker Messick
3
99.1
3 BIP
May 29
@ CLE · Slade Cecconi
4
89.2
4 BIP
May 28
vs ATL · Chris Sale
3
89.4
3 BIP
May 27
vs ATL · Bryce Elder
5
102.6
5 BIP
May 26
vs ATL · Spencer Strider
4
101.0
HR
4 BIP
May 24
vs MIN · Bailey Ober
5
101.0
5 BIP
May 23
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
2
102.3
2 BIP
May 22
vs MIN · Connor Prielipp
4
99.1
4 BIP
May 20
@ KC · Michael Wacha
3
94.2
3 BIP
May 19
@ KC · Bailey Falter
3
106.0
3 BIP
May 18
@ KC · Seth Lugo
0
—
—
May 17
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
3
97.0
3 BIP
May 16
@ ATL · Bryce Elder
3
98.5
3 BIP
May 15
@ ATL · Spencer Strider
3
99.7
3 BIP
May 14
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
2
101.4
2 BIP
May 13
vs PHI · Andrew Painter
1
102.2
HR
1 BIP
May 12
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
2
70.1
2 BIP
May 10
vs TB · Nick Martinez
2
75.1
2 BIP
May 9
vs TB · Nick Martinez
0
—
—
May 8
vs TB · Jesse Scholtens
4
99.4
HR
4 BIP
May 7
vs TB · Griffin Jax
3
101.1
3 BIP
May 6
@ DET · Jack Flaherty
1
73.2
1 BIP
May 5
@ DET · Framber Valdez
4
99.5
HR
4 BIP
May 4
@ DET · Tarik Skubal
5
99.0
5 BIP
May 3
vs HOU · Cody Bolton
3
98.3
3 BIP
May 2
vs HOU · Spencer Arrighetti
2
95.9
2 BIP
May 1
vs HOU · Mike Burrows
3
82.1
3 BIP
Apr 29
@ TOR · Eric Lauer
2
90.9
2 BIP
Apr 27
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
2
98.1
2 BIP
Apr 26
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
3
104.7
3 BIP
Apr 25
@ BAL · Trevor Rogers
4
108.2
4 BIP
Apr 24
@ BAL · Brandon Young
4
99.7
4 BIP
Apr 23
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
4
93.8
4 BIP
Apr 22
vs NYY · Max Fried
1
96.6
1 BIP
Apr 21
vs NYY · Luis Gil
3
102.5
3 BIP
Apr 19
vs DET · Framber Valdez
1
100.5
1 BIP
Apr 18
vs DET · Tarik Skubal
3
102.3
3 BIP
Apr 17
vs DET · Casey Mize
2
86.2
2 BIP
Apr 15
@ MIN · Simeon Woods Richardson
2
98.3
2 BIP
Apr 12
@ STL · Andre Pallante
2
87.0
2 BIP
Apr 11
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
2
108.6
2 BIP
Apr 10
@ STL · Dustin May
3
98.1
3 BIP
Apr 8
vs MIL · Shane Drohan
3
105.6
3 BIP
Apr 7
vs MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
2
98.2
2 BIP
Apr 6
vs MIL · Brandon Woodruff
3
93.2
3 BIP
Apr 5
vs SD · Walker Buehler
0
—
—
Apr 4
vs SD · Randy Vásquez
2
96.7
2 BIP
Apr 1
@ HOU · Mike Burrows
2
83.8
2 BIP
Mar 31
@ HOU · Hunter Brown
1
98.6
HR
1 BIP
Mar 30
@ HOU · Lance McCullers Jr.
3
97.5
3 BIP
Mar 28
@ CIN · Brady Singer
4
86.9
4 BIP
Mar 26
@ CIN · Andrew Abbott
4
98.8
4 BIP
Ballpark
Yankee Stadium · open-air
Park Factor
1.063
Wind
12 mph from SW
Temp
77°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:35p
12 ↑
77°
+14
2:35p
12 ↑
77°
+14
3:35p
12 ↑
78°
+14
4:35p
13 ↑
79°
+16
5:35p
11 ↑
78°
+13
+14
Slight green alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to center (from WSW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
3.75×
overdue — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
4 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
15 gm
since his last HR, Aug 11
Season
15 HR
128 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 14 gaps · median 4 gm · MAD ± 3.0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 45 → 45
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
Pitcher FIP
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
recent hr density 14d
Exit Velocity
Common questions about Ceddanne Rafaela
Will Ceddanne Rafaela hit a home run today?
Ceddanne Rafaela is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #87 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Ceddanne Rafaela hit home runs?
Across 128 scored games this season, Ceddanne Rafaela has 15 home runs — one every 8.5 games, or about 12% of his scored games.
Has Ceddanne Rafaela homered off Will Warren before?
Not yet — Ceddanne Rafaela has faced Will Warren 12 times without a home run.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.