Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-09-16T11:00:33-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-09-16
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jonah Cox | Matthew Liberatore | Curveball | +14.9 | +0.7 | 18% | 1 | 4 | #138 | |
| · | Joshua Báez | Anthony Molina | Fastball | +5.0 | +0.5 | 47% | 3 | 1 | #127 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +3.0 | +0.6 | 45% | 17 | 13 | #6 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +1.6 | +0.8 | 47% | 7 | 5 | #24 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Jared Jones | Fastball | +2.5 | +0.0 | 46% | 8 | 7 | #35 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Zebby Matthews | Fastball | +4.4 | +0.1 | 36% | 17 | 7 | #5 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Jared Jones | Fastball | +2.0 | +0.0 | 46% | 8 | 7 | #59 | |
| · | Nick Loftin | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.8 | 47% | 4 | 5 | #112 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Robert Stock | Cutter | +4.0 | +1.2 | 31% | 1 | 1 | #179 | |
| · | Bobby Witt | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.8 | 47% | 3 | 5 | #50 | |
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.1 | 47% | 4 | 3 | #86 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Blake Snell | Fastball | +2.2 | -1.9 | 49% | 12 | 0 | #104 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Anthony Molina | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.5 | 47% | 12 | 1 | #206 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Matthew Liberatore | Fastball | +4.5 | +0.4 | 30% | 8 | 11 | #73 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.6 | 45% | 9 | 13 | #75 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Blake Snell | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.9 | 49% | 11 | 0 | #83 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Anthony Molina | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.5 | 47% | 7 | 1 | #124 | |
| · | Nick Sogard | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.8 | 47% | 3 | 6 | #133 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Blake Snell | Fastball | +1.8 | -1.9 | 49% | 15 | 0 | #19 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Anthony Molina | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.5 | 47% | 10 | 1 | #93 | |
| · | Alex Freeland | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +0.8 | +0.6 | 45% | 2 | 13 | #152 | |
| · | Thomas Saggese | Anthony Molina | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.5 | 47% | 1 | 1 | #189 | |
| · | Michael Harris | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +4.5 | -1.1 | 34% | 3 | 9 | #48 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.6 | 45% | 8 | 13 | #60 | |
| · | Nolan Gorman | Anthony Molina | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.5 | 47% | 5 | 1 | #181 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -0.1 | +0.8 | 47% | 8 | 5 | #9 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.8 | 47% | 4 | 6 | #25 | |
| · | Teoscar Hernandez | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.6 | 45% | 5 | 13 | #78 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -0.1 | +0.8 | 47% | 6 | 5 | #79 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Robbie Ray | Fastball | +3.4 | +0.2 | 33% | 7 | 13 | #85 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+48.6 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+47.0 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+39.3 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+47.5 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+30.0 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+27.2 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.