Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-25T17:00:45-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-25
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Tyler Phillips | Splitter | +17.9 | -1.7 | 23% | 2 | 1 | #126 | |
| · | Ramon Urias | Chris Bassitt | Curveball | +16.1 | +0.0 | 23% | 1 | 1 | #175 | |
| · | Eric Wagaman | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +4.2 | -1.0 | 58% | 1 | 9 | #172 | |
| · | John Rave | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +4.1 | -0.2 | 48% | 1 | 3 | #41 | |
| · | Cody Freeman | Anthony Kay | Changeup | +10.4 | +1.3 | 14% | 0 | 2 | #222 | |
| · | Zack Gelof | Taj Bradley | Splitter | +9.4 | +0.5 | 20% | 1 | 2 | #20 | |
| · | Tyler Stephenson | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +3.1 | +0.0 | 46% | 4 | 8 | #114 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.3 | -1.0 | 58% | 6 | 9 | #130 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Jacob deGrom | Fastball | +3.8 | +0.0 | 42% | 2 | 12 | #157 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +3.3 | -0.5 | 46% | 4 | 7 | #164 | |
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Clay Holmes | Sinker | +2.6 | -1.4 | 50% | 4 | 3 | #199 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +1.1 | +2.9 | 41% | 7 | 2 | #12 | |
| · | Griffin Conine | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +2.6 | -0.5 | 46% | 6 | 7 | #55 | |
| · | Luis Torrens | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.4 | -1.0 | 58% | 4 | 9 | #99 | |
| · | Dane Myers | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +2.1 | +0.0 | 46% | 2 | 8 | #191 | |
| · | Max Clark | Casey Legumina | Slider | +8.0 | +2.0 | 13% | 0 | 1 | #203 | |
| · | Max Clark | Casey Legumina | Sweeper | +7.4 | +3.2 | 12% | 1 | 1 | #203 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Jacob deGrom | Fastball | +2.9 | +0.0 | 42% | 13 | 12 | #4 | |
| · | Ryan Kreidler | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.8 | 46% | 3 | 7 | #88 | |
| · | Henry Bolte | Taj Bradley | Curveball | +7.9 | +2.9 | 9% | 1 | 4 | #94 | |
| · | Byron Buxton | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.8 | 46% | 10 | 7 | #10 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Tyler Phillips | Sinker | +4.8 | +1.9 | 25% | 9 | 6 | #23 | |
| · | Brooks Lee | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.8 | 46% | 8 | 7 | #36 | |
| · | Justin Foscue | Anthony Kay | Cutter | +8.3 | -0.3 | 18% | 2 | 2 | #38 | |
| · | Kyle Isbel | Max Scherzer | Slider | +3.9 | +4.8 | 19% | 2 | 7 | #117 | |
| · | Tim Tawa | Clay Holmes | Sinker | +1.9 | -1.4 | 50% | 2 | 3 | #148 | |
| · | Javier Baez | Casey Legumina | Fastball | +3.1 | -0.9 | 43% | 1 | 2 | #219 | |
| · | Richie Palacios | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +0.5 | +2.9 | 41% | 3 | 2 | #183 | |
| · | Rafael Devers | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.5 | +0.2 | 50% | 2 | 10 | #28 | |
| · | Michael Massey | Max Scherzer | Slider | +3.5 | +4.8 | 19% | 3 | 7 | #82 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+47.4 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+37.6 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+37.1 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.9 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+26.3 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+25.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.