Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-08-21T14:00:31-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-21
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Tristan Peters | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +6.8 | +1.9 | 31% | 2 | 4 | #109 | |
| · | Spencer Horwitz | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Splitter | +9.2 | -0.5 | 27% | 1 | 5 | #96 | |
| · | Brett Baty | Sean Burke | Knuckle Curve | +9.9 | +0.0 | 20% | 1 | 1 | #128 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.3 | -1.7 | 64% | 7 | 8 | #117 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.9 | +0.4 | 54% | 12 | 10 | #9 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.9 | -1.7 | 64% | 13 | 8 | #18 | |
| · | Gary Sanchez | Chris Sale | Fastball | +5.4 | -1.2 | 41% | 5 | 7 | #124 | |
| · | Andrew Vaughn | Chris Sale | Fastball | +5.4 | -1.2 | 41% | 6 | 7 | #173 | |
| · | Dominic Smith | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.7 | 64% | 3 | 8 | #196 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.2 | -0.1 | 49% | 13 | 5 | #5 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.4 | 54% | 3 | 10 | #118 | |
| · | Austin Wells | Mason Fluharty | Cutter | +2.3 | -0.7 | 49% | 1 | 2 | #134 | |
| · | Trent Grisham | Mason Fluharty | Sweeper | +3.2 | +0.0 | 41% | 2 | 4 | #31 | |
| · | Angel Martinez | Tanner Gordon | Curveball | +6.5 | +5.0 | 9% | 3 | 3 | #59 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.1 | 49% | 8 | 5 | #71 | |
| · | Leody Taveras | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.5 | +0.4 | 54% | 4 | 10 | #140 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Sean Manaea | Fastball | +4.0 | -1.0 | 38% | 2 | 7 | #142 | |
| · | Samuel Basallo | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.7 | +0.4 | 54% | 4 | 10 | #32 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.1 | 49% | 6 | 5 | #108 | |
| · | Jared Triolo | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Splitter | +6.0 | -0.5 | 27% | 0 | 5 | #189 | |
| · | Coby Mayo | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.9 | +0.4 | 54% | 4 | 10 | #22 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Cam Schlittler | Fastball | +2.8 | -1.6 | 44% | 10 | 6 | #28 | |
| · | Colton Cowser | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.9 | +0.4 | 54% | 2 | 10 | #51 | |
| · | George Springer | Cam Schlittler | Cutter | +5.8 | -0.4 | 26% | 3 | 6 | #107 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +0.4 | -0.1 | 49% | 7 | 5 | #4 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Sean Manaea | Fastball | +3.1 | -1.0 | 38% | 13 | 7 | #2 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Mason Fluharty | Cutter | +0.4 | -0.7 | 49% | 2 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Miguel Vargas | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +2.5 | +1.9 | 31% | 2 | 4 | #6 | |
| · | Joc Pederson | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.2 | 46% | 8 | 10 | #10 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.6 | 46% | 7 | 9 | #11 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.8 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+26.3 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+25.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.