Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-18T17:00:35-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-18
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Osleivis Basabe | Foster Griffin | Sweeper | +19.0 | -0.3 | 14% | 1 | 4 | #107 | |
| · | Eduardo Valencia | Braxton Ashcraft | Curveball | +14.6 | -1.7 | 26% | 1 | 4 | #12 | |
| · | Jake Mangum | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +14.3 | +2.2 | 14% | 0 | 4 | #231 | |
| · | Max Clark | Braxton Ashcraft | Slider | +11.6 | +0.3 | 23% | 0 | 4 | #213 | |
| · | Miguel Amaya | Bryan Hudson | Fastball | +2.1 | -0.6 | 67% | 4 | 3 | #143 | |
| · | Chase Meidroth | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +7.8 | +0.0 | 39% | 2 | 4 | #142 | |
| · | Pedro Ramirez | Bryan Hudson | Fastball | +2.0 | -0.6 | 67% | 1 | 3 | #206 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Bryan Hudson | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.6 | 67% | 6 | 3 | #46 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Bryan Hudson | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.6 | 67% | 4 | 3 | #76 | |
| · | Victor Robles | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +3.3 | -0.9 | 58% | 1 | 9 | #250 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Bryan Hudson | Fastball | +0.7 | -0.6 | 67% | 10 | 3 | #18 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +6.9 | +0.6 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #16 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +3.9 | -0.7 | 51% | 2 | 9 | #159 | |
| · | Brendan Donovan | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.9 | 58% | 3 | 9 | #235 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Bryce Miller | Knuckle Curve | +13.6 | -0.4 | 4% | 1 | 0 | #57 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +2.1 | -0.9 | 58% | 9 | 9 | #78 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +3.0 | -0.7 | 51% | 12 | 9 | #1 | |
| · | Mike Trout | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +1.4 | +1.0 | 50% | 8 | 3 | #9 | |
| · | Abimelec Ortiz | Cal Quantrill | Fastball | +8.8 | -0.2 | 21% | 3 | 2 | #15 | |
| · | Dylan Crews | Cal Quantrill | Splitter | +7.1 | +1.4 | 23% | 1 | 3 | #87 | |
| · | Julio Rodríguez | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.9 | 58% | 6 | 9 | #116 | |
| · | Josh Naylor | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.9 | 58% | 5 | 9 | #233 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Bryan Hudson | Sweeper | +5.9 | +1.8 | 26% | 2 | 0 | #234 | |
| · | Zach Neto | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +1.1 | +1.0 | 50% | 8 | 3 | #22 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | George Klassen | Fastball | +2.3 | +1.5 | 41% | 12 | 1 | #4 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Cal Quantrill | Cutter | +6.2 | +0.6 | 27% | 6 | 4 | #44 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | George Klassen | Fastball | +2.3 | +1.5 | 41% | 5 | 1 | #98 | |
| · | Randy Arozarena | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.9 | 58% | 6 | 9 | #117 | |
| · | Wade Meckler | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +0.7 | +1.0 | 50% | 1 | 3 | #137 | |
| · | Vaughn Grissom | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.0 | 50% | 4 | 3 | #85 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.7 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+26.9 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.