Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-12T11:00:35-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-12
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Kody Clemens | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +17.3 | +0.6 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #36 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Jose Soriano | Splitter | +18.9 | -0.8 | 19% | 2 | 1 | #71 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Bryan King | Fastball | +3.7 | -0.4 | 58% | 7 | 4 | #101 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Robbie Ray | Knuckle Curve | +13.6 | -1.6 | 11% | 1 | 0 | #34 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Bryan King | Fastball | +2.1 | -0.4 | 58% | 4 | 4 | #175 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Bryce Miller | Fastball | +4.8 | -1.1 | 44% | 15 | 6 | #8 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +3.3 | +0.5 | 44% | 10 | 7 | #13 | |
| · | Drew Gilbert | Bryan King | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.4 | 58% | 2 | 4 | #185 | |
| · | Rafael Devers | Bryan King | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.4 | 58% | 13 | 4 | #51 | |
| · | Willy Adames | Bryan King | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.4 | 58% | 9 | 4 | #117 | |
| · | Angel Martinez | Framber Valdez | Curveball | +6.6 | +0.3 | 29% | 3 | 4 | #128 | |
| · | Joc Pederson | George Klassen | Fastball | +1.5 | +2.9 | 42% | 8 | 1 | #21 | |
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +6.9 | +0.7 | 26% | 2 | 3 | #56 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Bryan King | Sweeper | +4.6 | +2.4 | 28% | 2 | 3 | #175 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Robbie Ray | Knuckle Curve | +11.3 | -1.6 | 11% | 2 | 0 | #24 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +4.7 | +0.6 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #186 | |
| · | Javier Sanoja | Carmen Mlodzinski | Splitter | +7.4 | -1.3 | 26% | 0 | 0 | #192 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +7.2 | -1.4 | 26% | 0 | 2 | #27 | |
| · | Brandon Nimmo | George Klassen | Fastball | +0.5 | +2.9 | 42% | 5 | 1 | #68 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +1.6 | +0.5 | 44% | 7 | 7 | #30 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Bryce Miller | Fastball | +3.0 | -1.1 | 44% | 9 | 6 | #49 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Ryan Feltner | Slider | +4.7 | +2.0 | 24% | 1 | 5 | #138 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.5 | 44% | 12 | 7 | #19 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.5 | 44% | 7 | 7 | #54 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.6 | 48% | 5 | 8 | #90 | |
| · | Brooks Lee | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +3.8 | +0.6 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #130 | |
| · | Evan Carter | George Klassen | Fastball | +0.1 | +2.9 | 42% | 4 | 1 | #162 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Jose Soriano | Sinker | +6.0 | -0.7 | 27% | 9 | 1 | #27 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Jack Perkins | Sweeper | +5.2 | -0.2 | 29% | 3 | 3 | #55 | |
| · | Corey Seager | George Klassen | Fastball | -0.2 | +2.9 | 42% | 3 | 1 | #70 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+44.9 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+37.4 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+34.3 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+40.6 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+26.3 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.