Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-11T17:00:29-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-11
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jackson Chourio | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +13.6 | +3.9 | 10% | 1 | 3 | #24 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +11.3 | +3.9 | 10% | 2 | 3 | #19 | |
| · | Andres Chaparro | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +5.4 | +0.0 | 41% | 5 | 12 | #29 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +4.8 | -1.1 | 47% | 15 | 5 | #9 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +2.6 | +4.6 | 36% | 12 | 1 | #25 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +2.3 | +4.6 | 36% | 5 | 1 | #182 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Jake Irvin | Sinker | +7.6 | +1.4 | 22% | 2 | 7 | #23 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.5 | -1.1 | 58% | 11 | 8 | #102 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +1.9 | +4.6 | 36% | 2 | 1 | #108 | |
| · | Yainer Diaz | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +1.3 | +4.6 | 36% | 3 | 1 | #155 | |
| · | Cam Smith | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +1.0 | +4.6 | 36% | 5 | 1 | #73 | |
| · | Harry Ford | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +3.4 | +0.0 | 41% | 1 | 12 | #31 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.4 | -1.1 | 58% | 7 | 8 | #169 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +1.6 | +0.9 | 45% | 7 | 4 | #1 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Sean Burke | Knuckle Curve | +7.5 | +0.2 | 20% | 1 | 1 | #32 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Mitch Bratt | Fastball | +2.7 | +1.1 | 39% | 5 | 2 | #146 | |
| · | Xander Bogaerts | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.1 | 58% | 4 | 8 | #215 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Cristopher Sanchez | Changeup | +4.6 | -1.2 | 38% | 3 | 4 | #92 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Mitch Bratt | Fastball | +2.3 | +1.1 | 39% | 8 | 2 | #12 | |
| · | Yohel Pozo | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +3.3 | +1.0 | 35% | 0 | 4 | #152 | |
| · | William Contreras | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +6.7 | +3.9 | 10% | 0 | 3 | #160 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | Paul Skenes | Fastball | +3.6 | -1.3 | 41% | 3 | 6 | #164 | |
| · | Christian Walker | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +0.0 | +4.6 | 36% | 6 | 1 | #55 | |
| · | Angel Martinez | Drew Anderson | Curveball | +6.6 | -0.1 | 23% | 3 | 1 | #126 | |
| · | Everson Pereira | Cristopher Sanchez | Changeup | +4.2 | -1.2 | 38% | 1 | 4 | #138 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Jake Irvin | Sweeper | +6.6 | +4.2 | 8% | 2 | 1 | #148 | |
| · | Isaac Paredes | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +0.0 | +4.6 | 36% | 5 | 1 | #149 | |
| · | Richie Palacios | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.9 | 45% | 3 | 4 | #84 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.0 | 41% | 4 | 12 | #18 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +5.9 | +1.7 | 18% | 1 | 3 | #26 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+44.9 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+37.4 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+34.3 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+40.6 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+26.3 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.