Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-06T11:00:25-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-06
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +12.3 | +4.0 | 10% | 1 | 3 | #138 | |
| · | Jackson Merrill | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +2.3 | +10.6 | 18% | 1 | 2 | #57 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Nolan McLean | Cutter | +9.3 | +3.3 | 10% | 3 | 2 | #63 | |
| · | Gleyber Torres | Bryce Miller | Splitter | +9.5 | -1.5 | 24% | 0 | 2 | #83 | |
| · | Jake Cronenworth | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +1.5 | +10.6 | 18% | 0 | 2 | #142 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +3.6 | +0.0 | 44% | 9 | 2 | #5 | |
| · | Ty France | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +0.9 | +10.6 | 18% | 0 | 2 | #27 | |
| · | Colton Cowser | Ryan Johnson | Sinker | +3.3 | +5.3 | 26% | 3 | 7 | #67 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.1 | 46% | 10 | 10 | #4 | |
| · | Coby Mayo | Ryan Johnson | Sinker | +1.9 | +5.3 | 26% | 4 | 7 | #8 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Kohl Drake | Curveball | -0.5 | +10.6 | 18% | 0 | 2 | #82 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +2.9 | +1.1 | 35% | 2 | 4 | #15 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Kohl Drake | Fastball | +1.6 | +0.7 | 43% | 11 | 1 | #28 | |
| · | Alika Williams | Andrew Abbott | Cutter | +12.8 | -2.1 | 2% | 1 | 0 | #109 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.6 | 44% | 4 | 7 | #14 | |
| · | Randy Arozarena | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +1.3 | -0.1 | 45% | 1 | 5 | #51 | |
| · | Leody Taveras | Ryan Johnson | Sinker | +1.2 | +5.3 | 26% | 1 | 7 | #95 | |
| · | Oswald Peraza | Brandon Young | Splitter | +5.9 | +0.9 | 21% | 0 | 1 | #114 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Framber Valdez | Curveball | +4.2 | +0.4 | 29% | 2 | 4 | #10 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.0 | 44% | 11 | 2 | #13 | |
| · | Tyler Soderstrom | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.1 | 46% | 4 | 10 | #19 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.0 | 44% | 6 | 2 | #22 | |
| · | Caleb Durbin | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.6 | 44% | 4 | 7 | #125 | |
| · | Gunnar Henderson | Ryan Johnson | Sinker | +0.8 | +5.3 | 26% | 3 | 7 | #38 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +1.9 | +1.1 | 35% | 3 | 4 | #79 | |
| · | Moises Ballesteros | Brandon Young | Splitter | +5.4 | +0.9 | 21% | 0 | 1 | #111 | |
| · | Masataka Yoshida | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.6 | 44% | 2 | 7 | #132 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Bryce Miller | Fastball | +1.8 | -1.2 | 43% | 7 | 6 | #9 | |
| · | Cal Raleigh | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +0.6 | -0.1 | 45% | 1 | 5 | #59 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Kohl Drake | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.7 | 43% | 6 | 1 | #82 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+45.6 RV
Willson Contreras
+33.1 RV
Junior Caminero
+32.8 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+38.1 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.