Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-08-05T14:00:34-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
4
Edges That Hit HR
13%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-05
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Tommy Edman | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +15.6 | -1.0 | 33% | 1 | 6 | #74 | |
| · | Cam Cauley | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +3.4 | +4.4 | 35% | 1 | 1 | #187 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +2.1 | -1.0 | 58% | 9 | 8 | #85 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.0 | 58% | 7 | 8 | #135 | |
| · | Nathan Lukes | Hunter Brown | Knuckle Curve | +8.2 | +0.6 | 20% | 1 | 1 | #167 | |
| · | Cole Carrigg | Nick Martinez | Slider | +5.6 | +8.5 | 3% | 1 | 0 | #98 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Jacob Lopez | Slider | +4.8 | +1.0 | 32% | 4 | 4 | #25 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Mitch Bratt | Fastball | +1.6 | +3.0 | 38% | 11 | 2 | #41 | |
| · | Nick Gonzales | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.3 | -1.0 | 58% | 1 | 8 | #208 | |
| · | Jake Mangum | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.0 | 58% | 1 | 8 | #212 | |
| · | Hunter Feduccia | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +5.7 | -1.0 | 33% | 0 | 6 | #122 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.2 | 50% | 8 | 5 | #158 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.8 | +0.2 | 50% | 5 | 5 | #176 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.9 | +0.2 | 50% | 6 | 5 | #182 | |
| · | Brayan Rocchio | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.8 | +0.2 | 50% | 6 | 5 | #200 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +1.6 | +0.1 | 45% | 10 | 9 | #49 | |
| 💥 | Brandon Nimmo | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +0.6 | +4.4 | 35% | 5 | 1 | #50 | |
| · | Rhys Hoskins | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.2 | 50% | 4 | 5 | #83 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +6.3 | +1.6 | 18% | 0 | 3 | #12 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Jacob Lopez | Fastball | +3.6 | +0.1 | 35% | 9 | 4 | #14 | |
| · | Evan Carter | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +0.3 | +4.4 | 35% | 4 | 1 | #117 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.2 | 50% | 1 | 5 | #214 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Andrew Painter | Fastball | +2.2 | +2.5 | 33% | 4 | 7 | #7 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Andre Pallante | Fastball | +5.3 | -0.9 | 30% | 15 | 4 | #12 | |
| 💥 | Dillon Dingler | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.9 | 47% | 7 | 5 | #44 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +4.6 | +0.1 | 30% | 2 | 2 | #47 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +4.7 | -1.0 | 33% | 1 | 6 | #70 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Kyle Harrison | Slurve | +6.0 | -1.6 | 30% | 0 | 1 | #85 | |
| 💥 | Julio Rodríguez | Drew Anderson | Changeup | +3.2 | +1.6 | 31% | 3 | 4 | #107 | |
| 💥 | Max Muncy | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.0 | 41% | 10 | 11 | #13 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+45.6 RV
Willson Contreras
+33.1 RV
Junior Caminero
+32.8 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+38.1 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.