Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-02T11:00:27-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
1
Edges That Hit HR
3%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-02
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Kody Clemens | George Kirby | Knuckle Curve | +17.9 | +2.8 | 10% | 1 | 1 | #28 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Colin Rea | Fastball | +5.9 | +0.7 | 42% | 15 | 6 | #4 | |
| · | Nick Kurtz | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +11.0 | +2.0 | 14% | 0 | 3 | #17 | |
| · | Endy Rodríguez | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.9 | -0.6 | 57% | 3 | 7 | #75 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.6 | 57% | 4 | 7 | #3 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.6 | 57% | 9 | 7 | #23 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.2 | -0.6 | 57% | 7 | 7 | #59 | |
| · | Mike Trout | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.7 | -1.9 | 64% | 7 | 6 | #106 | |
| · | Zach Neto | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.9 | -1.9 | 64% | 8 | 6 | #131 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +8.2 | +1.7 | 21% | 1 | 5 | #9 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Gerrit Cole | Sinker | +7.6 | +6.7 | 6% | 2 | 1 | #63 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Mitch Keller | Cutter | +9.8 | +3.1 | 7% | 3 | 2 | #42 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Zack Wheeler | Splitter | +12.4 | -2.6 | 16% | 1 | 1 | #151 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Colin Rea | Fastball | +3.5 | +0.7 | 42% | 9 | 6 | #45 | |
| · | Jo Adell | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.8 | -1.9 | 64% | 8 | 6 | #158 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Chase Burns | Slider | +6.2 | -2.1 | 38% | 4 | 4 | #3 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +1.3 | +1.2 | 48% | 5 | 3 | #65 | |
| · | Jorge Soler | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.9 | 64% | 7 | 6 | #167 | |
| · | Nolan Schanuel | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.3 | -1.9 | 64% | 2 | 6 | #225 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.5 | 47% | 9 | 8 | #13 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.5 | 49% | 6 | 5 | #14 | |
| · | Nick Gonzales | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.6 | 57% | 1 | 7 | #194 | |
| · | Josh Lowe | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.1 | -1.9 | 64% | 2 | 6 | #198 | |
| · | Spencer Horwitz | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.2 | -0.6 | 57% | 5 | 7 | #93 | |
| 💥 | Everson Pereira | Griffin Jax | Sweeper | +7.7 | -1.2 | 26% | 2 | 3 | #140 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Griffin Jax | Sweeper | +7.7 | -1.2 | 26% | 2 | 3 | #177 | |
| · | Luis Urias | Matthew Liberatore | Sinker | +7.5 | +3.4 | 9% | 2 | 1 | #136 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.2 | 48% | 7 | 3 | #32 | |
| · | Spencer Torkelson | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.5 | 49% | 8 | 5 | #36 | |
| · | Bryan Torres | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.2 | 48% | 3 | 3 | #105 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+35.2 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+24.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.