Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-12T11:00:27-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-12
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Kody Clemens | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +18.8 | -1.4 | 25% | 1 | 2 | #8 | |
| · | Braden Shewmake | Paul Skenes | Splitter | +18.4 | -0.4 | 11% | 1 | 0 | #184 | |
| · | Eric Wagaman | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +7.9 | -1.0 | 48% | 1 | 4 | #117 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +4.2 | -0.3 | 58% | 2 | 2 | #170 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +3.9 | -0.3 | 58% | 4 | 2 | #44 | |
| · | Miguel Andujar | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +7.5 | +0.5 | 39% | 1 | 4 | #203 | |
| · | Nate Eaton | Zach Thornton | Cutter | +4.5 | +1.3 | 45% | 0 | 1 | #150 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Seth Lugo | Cutter | +11.5 | +0.3 | 16% | 1 | 3 | #53 | |
| · | Braden Shewmake | Paul Skenes | Changeup | +10.4 | +1.5 | 15% | 1 | 1 | #184 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Cade Cavalli | Fastball | +6.7 | +0.3 | 35% | 15 | 3 | #3 | |
| · | Romy Gonzalez | Zach Thornton | Cutter | +3.3 | +1.3 | 45% | 0 | 1 | #162 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +1.6 | -0.3 | 58% | 1 | 2 | #194 | |
| · | Joc Pederson | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +1.3 | +2.3 | 50% | 7 | 2 | #18 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | Joey Cantillo | Fastball | +5.2 | +0.9 | 37% | 3 | 7 | #67 | |
| · | Anthony Seigler | Zach Thornton | Cutter | +3.1 | +1.3 | 45% | 1 | 1 | #167 | |
| · | Michael Massey | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +6.0 | +0.4 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #81 | |
| · | Josh Jung | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +0.9 | +2.3 | 50% | 4 | 2 | #97 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +3.7 | -1.0 | 48% | 8 | 4 | #15 | |
| · | Oswald Peraza | Taj Bradley | Splitter | +9.4 | -0.2 | 20% | 0 | 0 | #156 | |
| · | Brandon Nimmo | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +0.6 | +2.3 | 50% | 4 | 2 | #62 | |
| · | Josh Rojas | Shane Baz | Changeup | +11.0 | +0.8 | 8% | 1 | 1 | #101 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +5.5 | +0.4 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #37 | |
| · | George Springer | German Marquez | Knuckle Curve | +5.1 | -0.4 | 37% | 1 | 2 | #112 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Paul Skenes | Splitter | +11.0 | -0.4 | 11% | 1 | 0 | #212 | |
| · | Troy Johnston | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.4 | -0.3 | 58% | 0 | 2 | #224 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | German Marquez | Fastball | +2.7 | +2.2 | 38% | 9 | 3 | #20 | |
| · | Tyler Soderstrom | Noah Schultz | Sweeper | +5.2 | +3.5 | 22% | 2 | 4 | #49 | |
| · | Edouard Julien | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.3 | -0.3 | 58% | 1 | 2 | #213 | |
| · | George Springer | German Marquez | Changeup | +2.4 | +12.2 | 3% | 1 | 1 | #112 | |
| · | Evan Carter | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -0.2 | +2.3 | 50% | 4 | 2 | #133 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+28.5 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
Kyle Freeland
+22.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.