Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-06-13T14:00:45-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
6
Edges That Hit HR
20%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-13
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Nick Kurtz | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +20.3 | +2.8 | 22% | 0 | 2 | #2 | |
| · | José Caballero | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +12.2 | +0.5 | 38% | 1 | 2 | #160 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Michael Soroka | Cutter | +15.6 | +1.8 | 12% | 2 | 4 | #43 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +11.9 | +2.8 | 22% | 1 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Alex Jackson | Matthew Liberatore | Slider | +11.3 | +1.8 | 22% | 0 | 7 | #222 | |
| 💥 | Jasson Domínguez | Kevin Gausman | Slider | +12.8 | +3.5 | 9% | 2 | 3 | #81 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +7.0 | -1.9 | 53% | 9 | 5 | #23 | |
| 💥 | Paul Goldschmidt | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +6.9 | -1.9 | 53% | 4 | 5 | #64 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +9.8 | -1.3 | 34% | 1 | 2 | #6 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Rhett Lowder | Changeup | +10.3 | +0.2 | 21% | 0 | 0 | #157 | |
| 💥 | Tristan Peters | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Splitter | +9.4 | -0.7 | 27% | 0 | 3 | #207 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +8.1 | +0.1 | 29% | 0 | 2 | #7 | |
| · | Brice Turang | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +8.3 | -1.3 | 34% | 0 | 2 | #66 | |
| · | Eugenio Suárez | Michael Soroka | Cutter | +10.7 | +1.8 | 12% | 3 | 4 | #130 | |
| · | Michael Busch | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +2.3 | -0.6 | 58% | 2 | 2 | #152 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +3.0 | +0.2 | 50% | 3 | 5 | #198 | |
| 💥 | Colt Emerson | Cade Cavalli | Sweeper | +11.3 | +0.5 | 11% | 1 | 0 | #14 | |
| 💥 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +2.0 | -0.6 | 58% | 1 | 2 | #80 | |
| · | Kerry Carpenter | Joey Cantillo | Changeup | +8.0 | -0.6 | 29% | 3 | 2 | #39 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +3.4 | +0.5 | 46% | 3 | 4 | #63 | |
| · | Jacob Gonzalez | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Splitter | +8.4 | -0.7 | 27% | 1 | 3 | #209 | |
| · | Moisés Ballesteros | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +1.3 | -0.6 | 58% | 0 | 2 | #190 | |
| 💥 | Ian Happ | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.7 | -0.6 | 58% | 1 | 2 | #57 | |
| · | Andy Pages | Sean Burke | Knuckle Curve | +7.7 | +1.1 | 21% | 1 | 1 | #73 | |
| · | Kyle Higashioka | Ranger Suarez | Cutter | +9.3 | -0.8 | 20% | 1 | 2 | #155 | |
| · | Alex Bregman | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.8 | -0.6 | 58% | 2 | 2 | #186 | |
| · | Willy Adames | Ben Brown | Knuckle Curve | +7.4 | -3.5 | 37% | 1 | 0 | #112 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.6 | -0.6 | 58% | 1 | 2 | #210 | |
| · | Jesús Sánchez | Cam Schlittler | Cutter | +8.1 | -1.8 | 27% | 3 | 2 | #45 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.2 | 50% | 1 | 5 | #174 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.