TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.93×

TB @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 13 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+20 ↑

6:40p

+18 ↑

7:40p

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8:40p

+17 ↑

9:40p

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best window is early — 6:40p at +20

Best of game Tyler Soderstrom conv 28 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 33 · vs Lopez → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 92

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tyler Soderstrom +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Lawrence Butler +400 D ●●○○○

3 Henry Bolte +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 81

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +198 B ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios — D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Lopez Edge +198 0.268 · 93.1 · 8.6% 25.0% 41.7% F B O B 72

· — Tyler Soderstrom vs Peralta Edge +330 0.226 · 90.7 · 7.3% 23.1% 33.6% F B O C+ 63

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Lopez +475 0.151 · 90.9 · 7.4% 9.1% 9.5% F B O C 52

· — Jonah Heim vs Peralta Edge +475 0.192 · 87.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 14.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Lawrence Butler vs Peralta Edge +400 0.117 · 89.1 · 6.3% 15.4% 13.2% F B O D 45

· — Henry Bolte vs Peralta +625 0.097 · 90.5 · 6.6% 15.4% 11.3% F B O D 46

· TB Richie Palacios vs Lopez — 0.118 · 85.9 · 4.8% 12.5% 12.9% F B O D 44

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Lopez — 0.152 · 88.0 · 4.5% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 48

· — Carlos Cortes COOL vs Peralta Edge +700 0.150 · 89.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 47

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Lopez Edge +330 0.154 · 90.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 46

· — Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Peralta Edge +700 0.079 · 86.3 · 2.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 35

· — Jacob Wilson vs Peralta +750 0.125 · 84.0 · 4.0% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Lopez Edge +575 0.107 · 85.8 · 3.5% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 40

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Lopez Edge +625 0.065 · 85.3 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Lopez — 0.057 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.4% ← leak BRK 31.7% OFF 9.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

17.0% 11.1% 7.8% 13.7% B 72 +198

Neutral · 1

Jonathan Aranda L

10.3% 14.3% 5.2% 10.2% C 52 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cedric Mullins L

3.0% 3.4% 8.3% 3.8% D 48 —

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.4% 10.3% 4.4% 6.9% D 46 +330

Richie Palacios L

5.6% 2.0% 3.4% 4.3% D 44 —

Nick Fortes R Edge

3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 40 +575

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 35 +625

130

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.4% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.2% ← leak BRK 24.2% OFF 21.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.2% 15.6% 0.0% 9.5% C+ 63 +330

Jonah Heim S Edge

8.1% 4.1% 9.3% 7.3% C 50 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.8% 4.4% 8.7% 7.2% D 47 +700

Henry Bolte R

9.3% 6.8% 4.8% 8.0% D 46 +625

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.8% 8.9% 4.0% 6.6% D 45 +400

Jacob Wilson R

4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 41 +750

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% D 35 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.2% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Soderstrom Bolte Butler

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero +198 · 72

Tyler Soderstrom +330 · 63

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 13 mph out 88°F open

+20

↑

13 mph · out

87°F

6:40p · peak

+18

↑

12 mph · out

83°F

7:40p

+17

↑

12 mph · out

79°F

8:40p

+17

↑

12 mph · out

75°F

9:40p

+16

↑

12 mph · out

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.93× 88°F, wind 13 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 72 B +198 WARM 1 0.268 93.1 8.6% 41.2%vs LHP 412 26.3% 25.0% 41.7% 32

2 Jonathan Aranda 52 C +475 · 21 0.151 90.9 7.4% 4.5%vs LHP 386 11.9% 9.1% 9.5% 38

3 Cedric Mullins 48 D — COOL 37 0.152 88.0 4.5% 0.0%vs LHP 389 13.0% 10.0% 8.7% 24

4 Yandy Diaz 46 D +330 WARM 40 0.154 90.8 6.1% 18.8%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 38

5 Richie Palacios 44 D — WARM 59 0.118 85.9 4.8% 8.6% 398 4.8% 12.5% 12.9% 14

6 Nick Fortes 40 D +575 COOL 79 0.107 85.8 3.5% 5.6%vs LHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 8.7% 14

7 Taylor Walls 35 D +625 COOL 98 0.065 85.3 3.6% 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 23

8 Chandler Simpson 27 D — COOL 130 0.057 84.0 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 43

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 63 C+ +330 WARM 6 0.226 90.7 7.3% 20.0%vs RHP 404 16.5% 23.1% 33.6% 32

2 Jonah Heim 50 C +475 WARM 27 0.192 87.4 6.3% 6.7%vs RHP 414 10.5% 0.0% 14.9% 38

3 Carlos Cortes 47 D +700 COOL 38 0.150 89.9 6.4% 15.9%vs RHP 403 5.0% 0.0% 15.7% 6

4 Henry Bolte 46 D +625 WARM 46 0.097 90.5 6.6% 5.0%vs RHP 420 10.8% 15.4% 11.3% 29

5 Lawrence Butler 45 D +400 WARM 47 0.117 89.1 6.3% 18.9%vs RHP 407 5.1% 15.4% 13.2% 35

6 Jacob Wilson 41 D +750 · 75 0.125 84.0 4.0% 15.6%vs RHP 386 6.9% 0.0% 9.6% 37

7 Jeff Mcneil 35 D +700 COOL 99 0.079 86.3 2.5% 8.7%vs RHP 377 3.0% 0.0% 9.9% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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