TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.04×

BAL @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 0 mph slight_out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at +2

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 23 · vs Kremer ⟷ Royce Lewis conv 24 · vs Rogers → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 95

2.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.98 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +330 C ●●●○○

3 Colton Cowser +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 8

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Royce Lewis +425 D ●●●●○

2 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●○○

3 Kody Clemens +525 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 13.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Coby Mayo vs Kremer — 0.220 · 92.6 · 9.5% 22.2% 23.3% F B O C 56

· MIN Pete Alonso ✶ vs Kremer +330 0.207 · 94.0 · 10.0% 16.7% 26.4% F B O C 58

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Rogers +525 0.228 · 92.6 · 8.7% 16.7% 14.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Rogers Edge +425 0.193 · 90.2 · 9.2% 27.3% 20.5% F B O D 49

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Rogers — 0.166 · 87.5 · 7.2% 22.2% 16.0% F B O D 41

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Rogers Edge — 0.171 · 87.6 · 4.9% 18.2% 12.1% F B O D 39

· MIN Josh Bell vs Rogers Edge +500 0.171 · 90.0 · 8.2% 18.2% 11.0% F B O D 43

· MIN Colton Cowser vs Kremer Edge +525 0.118 · 86.7 · 8.9% 12.5% 13.2% F B O D 44

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Rogers Edge +750 0.098 · 84.7 · 4.7% 18.2% 7.0% F B O D 30

· MIN Leody Taveras vs Kremer Edge +750 0.126 · 87.6 · 6.1% 10.0% 12.8% F B O D 39

· MIN Gunnar Henderson vs Kremer Edge +370 0.172 · 89.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 46

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Rogers Edge +750 0.112 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 31

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Rogers Edge +950 0.078 · 87.1 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.8% ← leak OFF 28.7% BRK 13.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

14.9% 14.3% 8.9% 13.1% C 58 +330

Coby Mayo R

10.2% 16.7% 12.1% 11.8% C 56 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.9% 7.2% 5.9% 7.2% D 46 +370

Colton Cowser L Edge

15.1% 2.3% 10.5% 10.3% D 44 +525

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.3% 0.0% 8.2% 4.9% D 39 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.8% usage) carries Kremer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.0% ← leak OFF 22.2% BRK 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L

8.5% 10.4% 19.7% 11.4% C 50 +525

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R Edge

15.7% 8.3% 7.9% 12.7% D 49 +425

Josh Bell S Edge

10.7% 5.6% 12.9% 10.0% D 43 +500

Trevor Larnach L

7.9% 5.7% 9.1% 7.9% D 41 —

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.8% 1.2% 0.0% 3.6% D 39 —

114

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.4% 6.2% 11.8% 6.6% D 31 +750

120

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.3% 0.0% 2.3% 3.3% D 30 +750

134

Austin Martin R Edge

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.0% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Clemens Lewis Bell Larnach Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Coby Mayo — · 56

Royce Lewis +425 · 49

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 0 mph slight_out 84°F open

↑

1 mph · out

86°F

6:40p

↑

2 mph · out

84°F

7:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

78°F

9:40p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 84°F, wind 0 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.98 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 58 C +330 WARM 10 0.207 94.0 10.0% 26.9%vs RHP 401 18.8% 16.7% 26.4% 32

2 Coby Mayo 56 C — · 12 0.220 92.6 9.5% 11.8%vs RHP 407 16.1% 22.2% 23.3% 23

3 Gunnar Henderson 46 D +370 WARM 45 0.172 89.6 7.4% 16.4%vs RHP 390 14.8% 0.0% 11.9% 29

4 Colton Cowser 44 D +525 WARM 60 0.118 86.7 8.9% 17.0%vs RHP 417 13.3% 12.5% 13.2% 14

5 Leody Taveras 39 D +750 WARM 83 0.126 87.6 6.1% 14.6%vs RHP 409 3.7% 10.0% 12.8% 28

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 50 C +525 COOL 29 0.228 92.6 8.7% 27.3%vs LHP 390 17.6% 16.7% 14.2% 38

2 Royce Lewis 49 D +425 WARM 30 0.193 90.2 9.2% 23.5%vs LHP 400 17.3% 27.3% 20.5% 33

3 Josh Bell 43 D +500 · 64 0.171 90.0 8.2% 13.8%vs LHP 405 11.0% 18.2% 11.0% 35

4 Trevor Larnach 41 D — · 69 0.166 87.5 7.2% 25.0%vs LHP 397 9.8% 22.2% 16.0% 24

5 Brooks Lee 39 D — · 88 0.171 87.6 4.9% 13.8%vs LHP 369 15.0% 18.2% 12.1% 32

6 Victor Caratini 31 D +750 COOL 114 0.112 89.5 6.6% 13.3%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 17

7 Luke Keaschall 30 D +750 WARM 120 0.098 84.7 4.7% 4.2%vs LHP 373 6.0% 18.2% 7.0% 36

8 Austin Martin 25 D +950 COOL 134 0.078 87.1 3.9% 3.7%vs LHP 392 1.6% 0.0% 6.2% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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