TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.98×

MIL @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph cross 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -1

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 19 · vs Henderson ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 25 · vs Mize → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 87

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +500 D ●●●○○

2 Gavin Sheets +575 D ●●○○○

3 Ty France +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 3

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.95 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio +400 D ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +400 C ●●●●○

3 Brice Turang +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 20.5% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jake Bauers ✶ vs Mize Edge +400 0.228 · 92.7 · 10.0% 25.0% 20.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· — Jackson Chourio vs Mize +400 0.198 · 92.2 · 10.0% 30.8% 19.9% F B O D 49

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Henderson Edge +500 0.162 · 90.1 · 9.3% 23.1% 15.2% F B O D 43

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Henderson Edge +575 0.174 · 87.7 · 7.5% 7.7% 14.7% F B O D 39

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Mize Edge +625 0.185 · 90.6 · 7.6% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 39

· — William Contreras COOL vs Mize +525 0.126 · 89.9 · 7.3% 9.1% 7.6% F B O D 33

· SD Ty France COOL vs Henderson +575 0.230 · 92.2 · 9.3% 0.0% 16.3% F B O D 46

· SD Manny Machado vs Henderson +400 0.209 · 90.7 · 9.3% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 46

· — Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Mize Edge +500 0.158 · 92.9 · 9.9% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Henderson +750 0.098 · 88.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 29

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Henderson Edge +625 0.068 · 87.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 25

· — Joey Ortiz COOL vs Mize — 0.116 · 87.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 28

· — Christian Yelich COOL vs Mize Edge +625 0.136 · 88.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.1% ← leak OFF 32.7% BRK 3.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ty France R

10.9% 6.9% 11.4% 10.6% D 46 +575

Manny Machado R

13.2% 7.3% 6.7% 10.6% D 46 +400

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.3% 5.6% 11.3% 10.6% D 43 +500

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.7% 1.9% 4.2% 6.9% D 39 +575

122

Xander Bogaerts R

7.1% 3.6% 2.5% 5.5% D 29 +750

133

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

4.6% 3.8% 3.2% 4.2% D 25 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.1% usage) carries Henderson's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.1% BRK 31.1% OFF 23.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L Edge

13.8% 13.6% 15.2% 13.9% C 51 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jackson Chourio R

13.9% 15.6% 3.4% 13.2% D 49 +400

Brice Turang L Edge

9.8% 8.9% 1.7% 8.0% D 39 +625

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.4% 10.9% 6.7% 13.4% D 38 +500

109

William Contreras R

8.0% 8.2% 0.0% 7.4% D 33 +525

113

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.1% 10.0% 12.5% 9.1% D 32 +625

127

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 5.9% 0.0% 3.9% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Bauers Chourio

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers +400 · 51

Jackson Chourio +400 · 49

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph cross 79°F open

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

6:40p · peak

-2

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

75°F

8:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

9:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 79°F, wind 7 mph W (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 46 D +575 COOL 42 0.230 92.2 9.3% 31.7%vs RHP 394 15.9% 0.0% 16.3% 37

2 Manny Machado 46 D +400 WARM 44 0.209 90.7 9.3% 27.9%vs RHP 397 18.6% 0.0% 14.2% 34

3 Jackson Merrill 43 D +500 WARM 62 0.162 90.1 9.3% 18.6%vs RHP 410 15.3% 23.1% 15.2% 41

4 Gavin Sheets 39 D +575 WARM 87 0.174 87.7 7.5% 28.8%vs RHP 397 10.6% 7.7% 14.7% 17

5 Xander Bogaerts 29 D +750 WARM 122 0.098 88.3 6.7% 15.1%vs RHP 396 7.3% 0.0% 7.7% 34

6 Jake Cronenworth 25 D +625 COOL 133 0.068 87.3 5.9% 11.5%vs RHP 389 1.4% 0.0% 7.6% 39

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.95 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 51 C +400 · 26 0.228 92.7 10.0% 33.9%vs RHP 402 20.4% 25.0% 20.5% 25

2 Jackson Chourio 49 D +400 WARM 32 0.198 92.2 10.0% 20.3%vs RHP 402 17.9% 30.8% 19.9% 37

3 Brice Turang 39 D +625 COOL 86 0.185 90.6 7.6% 26.7%vs RHP 407 11.4% 7.7% 9.2% 36

4 Garrett Mitchell 38 D +500 COOL 92 0.158 92.9 9.9% 25.0%vs RHP 415 7.4% 0.0% 7.7% 29

5 William Contreras 33 D +525 COOL 109 0.126 89.9 7.3% 17.9%vs RHP 417 9.4% 9.1% 7.6% 35

6 Christian Yelich 32 D +625 COOL 113 0.136 88.8 8.1% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.4% 0.0% 5.8% 29

7 Joey Ortiz 28 D — COOL 127 0.116 87.9 5.3% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.3% 0.0% 7.0% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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