TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.22×

HOU @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 13 mph out 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:45p

+6 ↑

7:45p

+6 ↑

8:45p

+5 ↑

9:45p

+3 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +9

Best of game Yainer Diaz conv 15 · vs Tidwell ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 13 · vs Wesneski → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Blade Tidwell RHP · SF

leak 87

0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Yainer Diaz +750 D ●●○○○

2 Christian Walker +475 D ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Hayden Wesneski RHP · TOR

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.80 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +370 D ●●○○○

2 Bryce Eldridge +425 D ●○○○○

3 Willy Adames +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 18.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Tidwell Edge +280 0.307 · 94.4 · 10.2% 0.0% 16.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Tidwell +750 0.149 · 87.6 · 5.6% 20.0% 10.8% F B O D 35

· HOU Christian Walker vs Tidwell +475 0.218 · 89.5 · 7.5% 16.7% 13.3% F B O D 45

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Tidwell +575 0.192 · 88.2 · 5.6% 16.7% 12.7% F B O D 39

· — Rafael Devers vs Wesneski Edge +370 0.228 · 92.5 · 8.0% 15.4% 11.3% F B O D 47

· HOU Cam Smith vs Tidwell +750 0.167 · 89.4 · 8.1% 9.1% 13.2% F B O D 39

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Tidwell +575 0.165 · 86.2 · 5.7% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 35

· — Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Wesneski Edge +425 0.179 · 92.4 · 8.2% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 41

· — Willy Adames COOL vs Wesneski +500 0.191 · 87.5 · 7.1% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 40

· — Jung Hoo Lee vs Wesneski Edge +950 0.143 · 86.8 · 3.8% 7.7% 5.6% F B O D 28

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Tidwell +750 0.153 · 85.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 29

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Tidwell — 0.111 · 85.9 · 2.6% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 23

· — Drew Gilbert HOT vs Wesneski Edge +950 0.110 · 86.0 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.1% ← leak BRK 46.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.9% 23.0% 18.2% C 51 +280

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Christian Walker R

8.7% 10.0% 9.8% D 45 +475

Cam Smith R

9.5% 14.5% 11.4% D 39 +750

Jeremy Peña R

3.8% 7.5% 5.6% D 39 +575

101

Yainer Diaz R

6.6% 3.2% 5.5% D 35 +750

102

Isaac Paredes R

7.4% 3.4% 5.6% D 35 +575

125

Jose Altuve R

6.4% 5.0% 5.3% D 29 +750

137

Christian Vazquez R

1.8% 0.0% 1.2% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.1% usage) carries Tidwell's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.1% ← leak BRK 29.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.5% 10.4% 11.1% D 47 +370

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

12.1% 5.7% 11.5% D 41 +425

Willy Adames R

7.9% 8.6% 8.6% D 40 +500

129

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.4% 2.6% 2.5% D 28 +950

135

Drew Gilbert L Edge

3.3% 4.5% 3.0% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.1% usage) carries Wesneski's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Peña Diaz Devers

Legend

attack side — vs Tidwell fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 13 mph out 68°F open

↑

13 mph · out

69°F

6:45p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

64°F

7:45p

↑

11 mph · out

62°F

8:45p

↑

10 mph · out

61°F

9:45p

↑

9 mph · out

59°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 68°F, wind 13 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 51 C +280 COOL 22 0.307 94.4 10.2% 27.4%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 34

2 Christian Walker 45 D +475 · 55 0.218 89.5 7.5% 25.7%vs RHP 391 18.0% 16.7% 13.3% 34

3 Cam Smith 39 D +750 · 89 0.167 89.4 8.1% 18.0%vs RHP 408 12.4% 9.1% 13.2% 24

4 Jeremy Peña 39 D +575 · 90 0.192 88.2 5.6% 30.8%vs RHP 385 15.0% 16.7% 12.7% 33

5 Yainer Diaz 35 D +750 WARM 101 0.149 87.6 5.6% 26.7%vs RHP 398 10.5% 20.0% 10.8% 29

6 Isaac Paredes 35 D +575 COOL 102 0.165 86.2 5.7% 18.3%vs RHP 377 11.6% 9.1% 7.8% 40

7 Jose Altuve 29 D +750 COOL 125 0.153 85.7 5.5% 22.9%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 43

8 Christian Vazquez 23 D — COOL 137 0.111 85.9 2.6% 12.9%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 9

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.80 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 47 D +370 · 39 0.228 92.5 8.0% 27.4%vs RHP 398 18.3% 15.4% 11.3% 38

2 Bryce Eldridge 41 D +425 COOL 77 0.179 92.4 8.2% 22.5%vs RHP 396 17.6% 8.3% 7.9% 31

3 Willy Adames 40 D +500 COOL 80 0.191 87.5 7.1% 21.1%vs RHP 387 14.9% 7.7% 8.3% 35

4 Jung Hoo Lee 28 D +950 · 129 0.143 86.8 3.8% 12.7%vs RHP 382 5.6% 7.7% 5.6% 42

5 Drew Gilbert 25 D +950 HOT 135 0.110 86.0 3.9% 12.1%vs RHP 398 2.9% 0.0% 5.1% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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