TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ AZ

Neutral air · 1.01×

COL @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 17 mph in 110°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+7 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +7

Best of game Mickey Moniak conv 28 · vs Soroka ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 20 · vs Hughes → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Michael Soroka RHP · AZ

leak 15

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mickey Moniak +425 C ●●●●○

2 Hunter Goodman +320 C+ ●●●●○

3 Willi Castro +700 D ●●●○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 13

0.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.95 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +625 D ●●●○○

2 Corbin Carroll +390 D ●○○○○

3 Ketel Marte +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Soroka Edge +425 0.291 · 89.4 · 9.9% 30.0% 25.7% F B O C 56

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Soroka +320 0.287 · 90.6 · 11.8% 22.2% 27.6% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Soroka Edge +700 0.159 · 87.7 · 8.5% 25.0% 15.2% F B O D 41

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Hughes +625 0.187 · 85.2 · 6.1% 25.0% 14.6% F B O D 41

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Hughes Edge +390 0.227 · 91.6 · 7.8% 7.7% 11.8% F B O D 45

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Hughes Edge +500 0.189 · 90.3 · 7.1% 7.7% 9.5% F B O D 41

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Soroka +750 0.126 · 87.5 · 7.3% 10.0% 6.8% F B O D 33

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Soroka Edge +850 0.211 · 85.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 39

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Hughes +625 0.139 · 89.3 · 6.1% 9.1% 5.8% F B O D 33

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Hughes Edge +850 0.133 · 87.3 · 4.2% 7.7% 6.4% F B O D 30

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Soroka Edge +750 0.165 · 83.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 34

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs Soroka +950 0.154 · 89.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Hughes Edge — 0.139 · 87.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 29

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Soroka Edge — 0.107 · 89.6 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 26

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Soroka — 0.067 · 87.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 22

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Hughes +850 0.122 · 88.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.1% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 12.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R

18.8% 14.9% 10.3% 16.5% C+ 60 +320

Mickey Moniak L Edge

10.1% 22.7% 2.2% 11.1% C 56 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

11.0% 6.1% 5.7% 8.5% D 41 +700

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.6% 1.4% 6.4% 5.3% D 39 +850

Kyle Karros R

7.4% 4.8% 11.5% 7.2% D 37 +950

105

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.7% 1.9% 5.6% 4.5% D 34 +750

110

Ezequiel Tovar R

5.6% 6.9% 8.0% 6.3% D 33 +750

132

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 1.9% D 26 —

138

Tyler Freeman R

2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.1% usage) carries Soroka's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.4% ← leak BRK 29.3% OFF 10.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.6% 14.9% 10.6% 11.9% D 45 +390

Nolan Arenado R

10.4% 2.2% 6.1% 7.3% D 41 +625

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.7% 7.2% 3.7% 9.9% D 41 +500

111

Gabriel Moreno R

6.8% 7.4% 8.6% 7.2% D 33 +625

117

Ryan Waldschmidt R

9.4% 7.7% 0.0% 7.8% D 31 +850

121

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.3% 1.8% 2.3% 3.4% D 30 +850

124

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.2% 3.2% 1.5% 3.4% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.4% usage) carries Hughes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Soroka fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Mickey Moniak +425 · 56

Hunter Goodman +320 · 60

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 17 mph in 110°F retractable

↑

11 mph · slight_out

101°F

6:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

99°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · out

94°F

8:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

88°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

82°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 110°F, wind 17 mph NW (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Soroka · RHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.69 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 60 C+ +320 COOL 8 0.287 90.6 11.8% 40.6%vs RHP 411 24.5% 22.2% 27.6% 22

2 Mickey Moniak 56 C +425 · 13 0.291 89.4 9.9% 25.4%vs RHP 417 18.2% 30.0% 25.7% 30

3 Willi Castro 41 D +700 WARM 71 0.159 87.7 8.5% 17.5%vs RHP 411 11.4% 25.0% 15.2% 25

4 Jake Mccarthy 39 D +850 COOL 81 0.211 85.0 6.3% 14.8%vs RHP 415 13.3% 0.0% 14.9% 47

5 Kyle Karros 37 D +950 COOL 94 0.154 89.6 8.0% 22.2%vs RHP 417 9.9% 0.0% 8.6% 24

6 Tj Rumfield 34 D +750 COOL 105 0.165 83.9 6.3% 16.0%vs RHP 410 6.7% 0.0% 9.2% 37

7 Ezequiel Tovar 33 D +750 · 110 0.126 87.5 7.3% 15.5%vs RHP 408 7.8% 10.0% 6.8% 25

8 Troy Johnston 26 D — COOL 132 0.107 89.6 4.0% 7.1%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 6.4% 16

9 Tyler Freeman 22 D — COOL 138 0.067 87.6 3.3% 3.7%vs RHP 369 1.9% 0.0% 5.6% 18

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.95 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 45 D +390 · 50 0.227 91.6 7.8% 16.9%vs RHP 401 13.1% 7.7% 11.8% 40

2 Nolan Arenado 41 D +625 · 72 0.187 85.2 6.1% 21.4%vs RHP 390 14.7% 25.0% 14.6% 32

3 Ketel Marte 41 D +500 COOL 76 0.189 90.3 7.1% 13.9%vs RHP 412 15.0% 7.7% 9.5% 34

4 Gabriel Moreno 33 D +625 COOL 111 0.139 89.3 6.1% 13.5%vs RHP 400 8.3% 9.1% 5.8% 38

5 Ryan Waldschmidt 31 D +850 COOL 117 0.122 88.2 6.4% 8.7%vs RHP 419 3.4% 0.0% 5.1% 28

6 Geraldo Perdomo 30 D +850 WARM 121 0.133 87.3 4.2% 10.8%vs RHP 383 7.7% 7.7% 6.4% 46

7 Ildemaro Vargas 29 D — WARM 124 0.139 87.7 4.2% 8.6%vs RHP 399 4.7% 0.0% 6.4% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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