TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.28×

NYM @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:15p

+6 ↑

8:15p

+5 ↑

9:15p

+4 ↑

10:15p

+4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +6

Best of game Matt Olson conv 46 · vs Scott ⟷ Marcus Semien conv 22 · vs Elder → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 85

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +265 B ●●●●●

2 Mike Yastrzemski +500 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Smith — D ●●○○○

FADE Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 76

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Marcus Semien +575 D ●●●○○

2 Francisco Lindor +370 C ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 57.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Scott Edge +265 0.281 · 92.6 · 10.1% 57.1% 35.2% F B O B 71

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Elder Edge +370 0.187 · 91.5 · 7.7% 21.4% 21.9% F B O C 53

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Scott Edge +350 0.183 · 91.6 · 9.7% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Elder +575 0.150 · 86.7 · 6.8% 25.0% 19.5% F B O D 48

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski HOT vs Scott Edge +500 0.153 · 90.3 · 7.0% 22.2% 18.6% F B O D 46

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Scott Edge — 0.132 · 87.9 · 6.1% 16.7% 15.6% F B O D 41

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Scott +425 0.146 · 90.9 · 8.8% 15.4% 14.3% F B O D 46

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Scott Edge +525 0.175 · 86.8 · 5.4% 15.4% 12.4% F B O D 45

· NYM Carson Benge vs Elder Edge +575 0.142 · 89.4 · 7.0% 15.4% 10.9% F B O D 45

· NYM Brett Baty vs Elder Edge +575 0.108 · 89.7 · 7.3% 9.1% 10.7% F B O D 42

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Elder +625 0.112 · 89.3 · 6.2% 7.1% 8.9% F B O D 40

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Elder +400 0.178 · 90.1 · 10.3% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 48

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Elder Edge +575 0.137 · — · 7.0% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Scott +850 0.136 · 86.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.7% ← leak BRK 24.8% OFF 9.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.0% 6.7% 7.3% 9.4% C 53 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

17.8% 16.4% 15.0% 16.9% D 48 +400

Marcus Semien R

10.2% 2.3% 7.4% 7.4% D 48 +575

Carson Benge L Edge

7.5% 9.9% 5.5% 7.8% D 45 +575

Brett Baty L Edge

8.3% 12.0% 4.1% 8.2% D 42 +575

Bo Bichette R

4.6% 10.7% 0.0% 6.1% D 40 +625

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.5% 10.0% 2.7% 7.8% D 39 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.7% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 67.9% ← leak BRK 28.4% OFF 3.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.6% 11.9% 12.8% 15.2% B 71 +265

Neutral · 1

Drake Baldwin L Edge

14.2% 19.2% 4.5% 14.0% C 51 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

8.2% 6.1% 6.7% 7.4% D 46 +500

Austin Riley R

13.2% 11.1% 5.6% 11.6% D 46 +425

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.6% 1.8% 3.0% 4.4% D 45 +525

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.9% 7.5% 2.6% 5.7% D 41 —

104

Mauricio Dubon R

3.0% 5.9% 5.0% 4.1% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.9% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Benge Olson Yastrzemski Riley Albies Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Matt Olson +265 · 71

Francisco Lindor +370 · 53

Marcus Semien +575 · 48

Mike Yastrzemski +500 · 46

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph out 87°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

7:15p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

8:15p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

77°F

9:15p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

10:15p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.28× 87°F, wind 4 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 53 C +370 · 18 0.187 91.5 7.7% 17.9%vs RHP 393 11.7% 21.4% 21.9% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 48 D +400 WARM 33 0.178 90.1 10.3% 26.3%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 21

3 Marcus Semien 48 D +575 · 35 0.150 86.7 6.8% 17.7%vs RHP 391 12.5% 25.0% 19.5% 33

4 Carson Benge 45 D +575 · 51 0.142 89.4 7.0% 15.2%vs RHP 401 9.7% 15.4% 10.9% 35

5 Brett Baty 42 D +575 WARM 68 0.108 89.7 7.3% 12.5%vs RHP 396 6.5% 9.1% 10.7% 16

6 Bo Bichette 40 D +625 COOL 78 0.112 89.3 6.2% 9.0%vs RHP 388 8.7% 7.1% 8.9% 45

7 A.J. Ewing 39 D +575 WARM 82 0.137 — 7.0% 13.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 40

vs Christian Scott · RHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 71 B +265 WARM 2 0.281 92.6 10.1% 33.3%vs RHP 407 25.2% 57.1% 35.2% 31

2 Drake Baldwin 51 C +350 COOL 24 0.183 91.6 9.7% 28.3%vs RHP 403 17.3% 0.0% 14.8% 42

3 Mike Yastrzemski 46 D +500 HOT 41 0.153 90.3 7.0% 17.9%vs RHP 392 9.3% 22.2% 18.6% 17

4 Austin Riley 46 D +425 HOT 43 0.146 90.9 8.8% 18.5%vs RHP 405 9.4% 15.4% 14.3% 21

5 Ozzie Albies 45 D +525 · 49 0.175 86.8 5.4% 13.9%vs RHP 386 14.4% 15.4% 12.4% 39

6 Dominic Smith 41 D — WARM 70 0.132 87.9 6.1% 15.4%vs RHP 392 8.3% 16.7% 15.6% 10

7 Mauricio Dubon 34 D +850 WARM 104 0.136 86.8 5.3% 11.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.