TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ STL

Busch Stadium is live · 1.23×

PHI @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 7 mph out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:45p

+4 ↑

7:45p

+4 ↑

8:45p

+3 ↑

9:45p

+3 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +5

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 18 · vs Painter ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 28 · vs Dobbins → edge: Bryce Harper

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 95

1.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +425 C ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +400 C ●●○○○

3 José Fermín +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Hunter Dobbins RHP · STL

leak 41

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +400 C ●●●●○

2 Trea Turner +625 D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +245 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Harper: Match 24.9% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper ✶ vs Dobbins Edge +400 0.247 · 90.3 · 9.0% 30.8% 24.9% F B O C 55

· STL Alec Burleson vs Painter Edge +425 0.190 · 91.8 · 10.1% 16.7% 18.8% F B O C 50

· PHI Kyle Schwarber vs Dobbins Edge +245 0.275 · 93.2 · 10.9% 9.1% 25.9% F B O C 58

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Painter +400 0.209 · 92.9 · 10.7% 8.3% 14.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Dobbins +625 0.154 · 88.6 · 6.7% 23.1% 12.2% F B O D 39

· STL José Fermín vs Painter +850 0.121 · 86.5 · 4.4% 10.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Painter Edge +750 0.127 · 86.3 · 8.0% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 37

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Dobbins Edge +700 0.167 · 89.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 38

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Painter +575 0.142 · 89.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 34

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Dobbins +750 0.132 · — · 5.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 28

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Dobbins +850 0.132 · 90.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Painter Edge +525 0.137 · 89.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Dobbins Edge +750 0.158 · 89.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 35

· STL Masyn Winn vs Painter +850 0.080 · 88.0 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 27

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Dobbins Edge — 0.088 · 86.8 · 2.9% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.3% BRK 42.5% OFF 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.4% 14.3% 25.9% 16.8% C 58 +245

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.6% 14.0% 6.3% 11.4% C 55 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Trea Turner R

8.3% 4.8% 2.6% 6.5% D 39 +625

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.5% 14.0% 2.2% 8.5% D 38 +700

100

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.5% 4.3% 5.1% 6.6% D 35 +750

108

Alec Bohm R

4.5% 5.0% 8.8% 5.1% D 33 +850

126

J.T. Realmuto R

4.0% 7.3% 5.6% 4.9% D 28 +750

136

Justin Crawford L Edge

2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 1.6% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobbins's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.0% ← leak BRK 42.0% OFF 15.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

13.3% 11.9% 17.1% 13.2% C 51 +400

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.7% 12.1% 10.3% 11.5% C 50 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.9% 4.3% 2.0% 7.3% D 37 +525

Nathan Church L Edge

8.7% 6.5% 5.2% 7.1% D 37 +750

103

Ivan Herrera R

6.0% 5.0% 6.7% 5.8% D 34 +575

112

José Fermín R

2.6% 2.3% 0.0% 2.2% D 32 +850

131

Masyn Winn R

3.3% 2.1% 3.2% 2.9% D 27 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.0% usage) carries Painter's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Turner Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +400 · 55

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 7 mph out 92°F open

↑

9 mph · out

91°F

6:45p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

90°F

7:45p

↑

9 mph · out

90°F

8:45p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

89°F

9:45p

↑

9 mph · out

88°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 92°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Dobbins · RHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 58 C +245 · 11 0.275 93.2 10.9% 41.2%vs RHP 403 22.9% 9.1% 25.9% 19

2 Bryce Harper ✶ 55 C +400 WARM 14 0.247 90.3 9.0% 36.4%vs RHP 403 20.2% 30.8% 24.9% 34

3 Trea Turner 39 D +625 COOL 84 0.154 88.6 6.7% 21.0%vs RHP 393 14.3% 23.1% 12.2% 50

4 Brandon Marsh 38 D +700 COOL 91 0.167 89.5 7.8% 20.6%vs RHP 393 12.1% 0.0% 8.6% 43

5 Bryson Stott 35 D +750 WARM 100 0.158 89.6 6.9% 9.3%vs RHP 389 7.3% 0.0% 7.0% 36

6 Alec Bohm 33 D +850 COOL 108 0.132 90.6 5.9% 14.9%vs RHP 396 10.9% 0.0% 8.0% 45

7 J.T. Realmuto 28 D +750 WARM 126 0.132 — 5.9% 18.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 29

8 Justin Crawford 23 D — WARM 136 0.088 86.8 2.9% 5.0%vs RHP 382 2.4% 0.0% 5.4% 36

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 51 C +400 COOL 23 0.209 92.9 10.7% 27.9%vs RHP 406 17.1% 8.3% 14.0% 36

2 Alec Burleson 50 C +425 WARM 28 0.190 91.8 10.1% 21.4%vs RHP 402 15.2% 16.7% 18.8% 34

3 Jj Wetherholt 37 D +525 COOL 93 0.137 89.6 7.9% 16.9%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 7.6% 38

4 Nathan Church 37 D +750 COOL 96 0.127 86.3 8.0% 18.9%vs RHP 384 8.6% 8.3% 7.5% 35

5 Ivan Herrera 34 D +575 WARM 103 0.142 89.2 7.0% 19.1%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 44

6 José Fermín 32 D +850 WARM 112 0.121 86.5 4.4% 8.0%vs RHP 388 6.0% 10.0% 6.8% 36

7 Masyn Winn 27 D +850 · 131 0.080 88.0 5.1% 9.1%vs RHP 390 3.6% 0.0% 6.9% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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