TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TOR

Playable air · 1.07×

BOS @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph cross 81°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-1 ↑

7:07p

-3 ↑

8:07p

-4 ↑

9:07p

-5 ↑

10:07p

-5 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at -1

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 29 · vs Taillon ⟷ Jesús Sánchez conv 16 · vs Gray → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Jameson Taillon RHP · CHC

leak 98

2.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu +280 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ceddanne Rafaela +500 C ●●●●○

3 Jarren Duran +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 90

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jesús Sánchez +525 D ●●○○○

2 George Springer +525 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes +850 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 13.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Taillon Edge +280 0.205 · 90.1 · 13.5% 33.3% 24.2% F B O C+ 64

· — Ceddanne Rafaela vs Taillon +500 0.180 · 86.7 · 8.8% 30.8% 22.6% F B O C 54

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Taillon Edge +425 0.153 · 89.6 · 11.9% 23.1% 20.2% F B O C 55

· — Willson Contreras vs Taillon +330 0.248 · 90.7 · 14.2% 9.1% 26.8% F B O C+ 67

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Taillon +625 0.186 · 88.9 · 11.1% 7.7% 11.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Gray Edge +525 0.168 · 90.9 · 8.8% 16.7% 15.5% F B O D 45

· TOR George Springer vs Gray +525 0.162 · 88.5 · 6.9% 9.1% 11.6% F B O D 41

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Taillon +700 0.155 · 84.1 · 6.3% 8.3% 12.0% F B O D 43

· — Masataka Yoshida vs Taillon Edge +625 0.128 · 88.6 · 7.2% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 43

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Gray Edge +850 0.107 · 86.5 · 2.4% 10.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Gray +400 0.205 · 90.5 · 9.1% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 49

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Gray +850 0.125 · 84.9 · 4.0% 7.7% 7.5% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Gray Edge +950 0.126 · 85.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 30

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Gray — 0.112 · 86.1 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.8% ← leak BRK 36.8% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R

14.9% 7.3% 15.8% 12.7% D 49 +400

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

11.0% 19.6% 0.0% 11.9% D 45 +525

George Springer R

7.9% 5.7% 7.7% 7.1% D 41 +525

115

Ernie Clement R

2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% D 31 +850

118

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.9% 2.3% 5.3% 3.6% D 30 +950

119

Myles Straw R

4.0% 0.0% 7.7% 3.4% D 30 —

123

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.0% 2.6% 0.9% D 29 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.8% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.1% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 16.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Willson Contreras R

12.3% 14.8% 21.9% 14.1% C+ 67 +330

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.0% 16.2% 12.2% 13.1% C+ 64 +280

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.5% 7.5% 8.1% 10.2% C 55 +425

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.6% 5.9% 13.0% 5.6% C 54 +500

Andruw Monasterio R

8.2% 8.6% 14.3% 8.9% C 52 +625

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Caleb Durbin R

3.4% 1.3% 3.1% 2.9% D 43 +700

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.3% 0.0% 4.7% 3.7% D 43 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.1% usage) carries Taillon's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Sánchez Contreras Abreu Duran Rafaela

Legend

attack side — vs Taillon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Wilyer Abreu +280 · 64

Ceddanne Rafaela +500 · 54

Jarren Duran +425 · 55

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph cross 81°F retractable

-1

↑

8 mph · cross

79°F

7:07p · peak

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

79°F

8:07p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

9:07p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

10:07p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

73°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 81°F, wind 8 mph W (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 49 D +400 COOL 31 0.205 90.5 9.1% 29.2%vs RHP 397 17.5% 0.0% 15.7% 36

2 Jesús Sánchez 45 D +525 WARM 48 0.168 90.9 8.8% 20.9%vs RHP 398 11.1% 16.7% 15.5% 14

3 George Springer 41 D +525 · 73 0.162 88.5 6.9% 22.4%vs RHP 393 11.1% 9.1% 11.6% 34

4 Ernie Clement 31 D +850 COOL 115 0.125 84.9 4.0% 6.5%vs RHP 376 8.0% 7.7% 7.5% 47

5 Andres Gimenez 30 D +950 COOL 118 0.126 85.9 4.9% 11.5%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 33

6 Myles Straw 30 D — COOL 119 0.112 86.1 4.8% 5.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 33

7 Nathan Lukes 29 D +850 WARM 123 0.107 86.5 2.4% 11.6%vs RHP 378 6.5% 10.0% 7.4% 40

vs Jameson Taillon · RHP 2.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 67 C+ +330 WARM 4 0.248 90.7 14.2% 31.4%vs RHP 406 19.6% 9.1% 26.8% 16

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 64 C+ +280 WARM 5 0.205 90.1 13.5% 16.5%vs RHP 408 15.9% 33.3% 24.2% 37

3 Jarren Duran 55 C +425 COOL 15 0.153 89.6 11.9% 31.2%vs RHP 399 13.6% 23.1% 20.2% 38

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 54 C +500 WARM 17 0.180 86.7 8.8% 17.5%vs RHP 380 13.3% 30.8% 22.6% 45

5 Andruw Monasterio 52 C +625 COOL 20 0.186 88.9 11.1% 2.9%vs RHP 390 14.3% 7.7% 11.0% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 43 D +700 COOL 63 0.155 84.1 6.3% 21.1%vs RHP 375 9.2% 8.3% 12.0% 43

7 Masataka Yoshida 43 D +625 WARM 65 0.128 88.6 7.2% 10.4%vs RHP 368 10.7% 9.1% 8.4% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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