TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.29×

TEX @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 10 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:38p

+6 ↑

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+4 ↑

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+3 ↑

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+2 ↑

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best window is early — 6:38p at +7

Best of game Mike Trout conv 10 · vs Gore ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 29 · vs Detmers → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 83

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +350 D ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto +370 D ●○○○○

3 Nolan Schanuel +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 67

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C ●●●●○

2 Brandon Nimmo +425 D ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Duran +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Detmers — 0.252 · 91.8 · 9.8% 33.3% 24.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Detmers +425 0.168 · 92.0 · 9.8% 23.1% 15.9% F B O D 43

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Detmers Edge +575 0.180 · 88.7 · 7.4% 15.4% 10.7% F B O D 39

· TEX Corey Seager vs Detmers +290 0.190 · 91.4 · 11.1% 12.5% 9.9% F B O D 44

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Detmers Edge +330 0.221 · 89.7 · 8.4% 7.7% 13.1% F B O D 44

· TEX Jake Burger vs Detmers Edge +320 0.180 · 90.3 · 9.7% 9.1% 11.2% F B O D 42

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Gore Edge +350 0.205 · 90.2 · 12.3% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 48

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Gore Edge +370 0.192 · 89.5 · 10.4% 8.3% 10.8% F B O D 45

· LAA Nolan Schanuel HOT vs Gore +750 0.117 · 87.5 · 4.8% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 28

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Gore Edge +750 0.138 · 88.7 · 7.6% 9.1% 5.9% F B O D 34

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Gore Edge — 0.127 · 87.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 33

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Gore — 0.143 · 89.2 · 8.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 36

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Detmers — 0.134 · 87.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.5% ← leak BRK 43.6% OFF 9.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L

14.3% 12.7% 3.8% 11.4% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Corey Seager L

13.8% 14.7% 16.7% 14.6% D 44 +290

Wyatt Langford R Edge

5.1% 12.5% 15.8% 8.3% D 44 +330

Brandon Nimmo L

8.9% 17.4% 8.7% 11.2% D 43 +425

Jake Burger R Edge

10.2% 13.0% 9.7% 11.1% D 42 +320

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

8.1% 6.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 39 +575

116

Evan Carter L

8.0% 4.8% 0.0% 5.9% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.5% usage) carries Detmers's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.3% ← leak BRK 29.3% OFF 11.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R Edge

16.0% 23.8% 12.5% 17.0% D 48 +350

Zach Neto R Edge

14.5% 8.3% 10.5% 12.2% D 45 +370

Josh Lowe L

13.0% 2.7% 6.7% 9.0% D 36 —

106

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.0% 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% D 34 +750

107

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.4% 7.0% 12.0% 7.3% D 33 —

128

Nolan Schanuel L

2.8% 3.8% 0.0% 2.6% D 28 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.3% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Nimmo Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Gore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson — · 54

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 10 mph out 84°F open

↑

10 mph · out

83°F

6:38p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

78°F

7:38p

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

8:38p

↑

7 mph · out

75°F

9:38p

↑

6 mph · out

74°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 84°F, wind 10 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 54 C — · 16 0.252 91.8 9.8% 25.9% 395 22.2% 33.3% 24.7% 22

2 Corey Seager 44 D +290 · 57 0.190 91.4 11.1% 14.3%vs LHP 394 16.9% 12.5% 9.9% 22

3 Wyatt Langford 44 D +330 COOL 58 0.221 89.7 8.4% 23.5%vs LHP 397 16.7% 7.7% 13.1% 31

4 Brandon Nimmo 43 D +425 COOL 66 0.168 92.0 9.8% 20.0%vs LHP 400 11.2% 23.1% 15.9% 35

5 Jake Burger 42 D +320 · 67 0.180 90.3 9.7% 27.8%vs LHP 398 15.2% 9.1% 11.2% 29

6 Ezequiel Duran 39 D +575 · 85 0.180 88.7 7.4% 14.3%vs LHP 393 13.3% 15.4% 10.7% 36

7 Evan Carter 31 D — COOL 116 0.134 87.6 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 374 8.5% 0.0% 5.4% 28

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 48 D +350 COOL 34 0.205 90.2 12.3% 19.1%vs LHP 408 15.6% 8.3% 11.9% 26

2 Zach Neto 45 D +370 COOL 52 0.192 89.5 10.4% 16.7%vs LHP 402 16.2% 8.3% 10.8% 32

3 Josh Lowe 36 D — · 97 0.143 89.2 8.9% 12.3% 396 9.3% 0.0% 6.8% 13

4 Vaughn Grissom 34 D +750 COOL 106 0.138 88.7 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 390 9.8% 9.1% 5.9% 30

5 Oswald Peraza 33 D — WARM 107 0.127 87.6 8.0% 26.3%vs LHP 386 6.1% 0.0% 10.4% 7

6 Nolan Schanuel 28 D +750 HOT 128 0.117 87.5 4.8% 16.7%vs LHP 375 7.1% 8.3% 6.7% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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