TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.41×

KC @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+7 ↑

10:10p

+5 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +10

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 32 · vs Skubal ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 30 · vs Cameron → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 100

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +400 C ●●●●●

2 Carter Jensen +750 C ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 80

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +210 C+ ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●○○

3 Andy Pages +305 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jac Caglianone COOL vs Skubal +400 0.218 · 92.9 · 10.2% 25.0% 38.1% F B O C 59

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Cameron +210 0.252 · 93.4 · 11.9% 25.0% 34.6% F B O C+ 68

· — Carter Jensen vs Skubal +750 0.191 · 90.7 · 8.6% 18.2% 27.2% F B O C 52

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Cameron — 0.237 · 90.5 · 10.8% 14.3% 26.5% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Cameron Edge +305 0.187 · 89.1 · 8.1% 16.7% 13.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Cameron +400 0.141 · 89.0 · 7.5% 18.2% 10.5% F B O D 45

· — Michael Massey COOL vs Skubal +700 0.159 · 89.9 · 6.8% 9.1% 17.4% F B O D 43

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Cameron Edge +370 0.155 · 89.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 18.2% F B O D 44

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Cameron +400 0.172 · 89.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 48

· — Salvador Perez COOL vs Skubal Edge +400 0.158 · 88.9 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 41

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Cameron Edge +390 0.160 · 90.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 45

· — Isaac Collins vs Skubal Edge +950 0.128 · 88.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.7% ← leak BRK 28.2% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Shohei Ohtani L

20.5% 10.5% 16.0% 16.6% C+ 68 +210

Max Muncy L

14.5% 8.6% 6.2% 11.3% C+ 62 —

Andy Pages R Edge

7.4% 8.0% 9.1% 7.7% C 51 +305

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L

9.1% 9.1% 8.9% 9.1% D 48 +400

Kyle Tucker L

9.8% 3.2% 1.4% 6.6% D 45 +400

Mookie Betts R Edge

9.1% 3.2% 6.2% 7.4% D 45 +390

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.9% 12.5% 7.1% 9.4% D 44 +370

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.7% usage) carries Cameron's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.3% ← leak OFF 25.0% BRK 18.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L

14.0% 12.1% 17.6% 14.7% C 59 +400

Carter Jensen L

10.3% 10.0% 9.5% 9.9% C 52 +750

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Michael Massey L

7.6% 1.9% 5.8% 6.0% D 43 +700

Salvador Perez R Edge

13.2% 8.0% 6.7% 9.9% D 41 +400

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.5% 2.4% 9.7% 5.5% D 37 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.3% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Tucker Caglianone Jensen Massey

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jac Caglianone +400 · 59

Shohei Ohtani +210 · 68

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 81°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 81°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 68 C+ +210 COOL 3 0.252 93.4 11.9% 32.4%vs LHP 403 19.5% 25.0% 34.6% 31

2 Max Muncy 62 C+ — COOL 7 0.237 90.5 10.8% 28.0%vs LHP 411 18.5% 14.3% 26.5% 29

3 Andy Pages 51 C +305 COOL 25 0.187 89.1 8.1% 17.6%vs LHP 392 13.9% 16.7% 13.6% 38

4 Freddie Freeman 48 D +400 COOL 36 0.172 89.9 8.8% 14.3%vs LHP 398 11.4% 0.0% 11.7% 42

5 Kyle Tucker 45 D +400 COOL 53 0.141 89.0 7.5% 6.9%vs LHP 395 8.2% 18.2% 10.5% 33

6 Mookie Betts 45 D +390 COOL 54 0.160 90.5 8.0% 5.6%vs LHP 389 9.3% 0.0% 9.1% 40

7 Teoscar Hernandez 44 D +370 · 56 0.155 89.3 8.9% 19.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 32

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 59 C +400 COOL 9 0.218 92.9 10.2% 27.8%vs LHP 416 14.4% 25.0% 38.1% 41

2 Carter Jensen 52 C +750 · 19 0.191 90.7 8.6% 11.1%vs LHP 394 15.2% 18.2% 27.2% 24

3 Michael Massey 43 D +700 COOL 61 0.159 89.9 6.8% 33.3%vs LHP 401 6.3% 9.1% 17.4% 38

4 Salvador Perez 41 D +400 COOL 74 0.158 88.9 8.6% 14.7%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 36

5 Isaac Collins 37 D +950 · 95 0.128 88.4 6.5% 8.7%vs LHP 394 6.1% 0.0% 7.7% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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