TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.37×

MIL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:15p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 6 mph cross 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

6:15p

+10 ↑

7:15p

+10 ↑

8:15p

+10 ↑

9:15p

+10 ↑

10:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · +10 FIT

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 34 · vs Henderson ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 26 · vs Gausman → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 83

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

2 Michael Conforto — C ●●●●●

3 Ian Happ — C+ ●●●●●

FADE Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 54

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio — C+ ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●○○○

3 Garrett Mitchell — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 34.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Henderson Edge — 0.289 · 90.2 · 10.5% 33.3% 34.9% F B O B 72

· CHC Michael Conforto vs Henderson Edge — 0.243 · 90.5 · 9.6% 33.3% 32.4% F B O C 59

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.200 · 89.1 · 9.7% 37.5% 28.0% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Henderson — 0.181 · 88.1 · 6.6% 41.7% 23.7% F B O C 54

· — Jackson Chourio vs Gausman — 0.193 · 92.0 · 9.7% 25.0% 26.1% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Henderson — 0.216 · 88.5 · 9.3% 16.7% 19.7% F B O C 58

· CHC Michael Busch vs Henderson Edge — 0.152 · 88.3 · 8.8% 16.7% 16.1% F B O C 50

· — Jake Bauers COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.222 · 92.4 · 10.0% 10.0% 22.3% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Henderson — 0.131 · 87.2 · 6.7% 33.3% 15.4% F B O D 46

· — Garrett Mitchell vs Gausman Edge — 0.150 · 92.9 · 9.3% 12.5% 11.4% F B O D 49

· — Christian Yelich vs Gausman Edge — 0.149 · 88.9 · 8.6% 11.1% 10.7% F B O D 48

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.170 · 90.2 · 7.4% 8.3% 13.1% F B O D 49

· — Joey Ortiz vs Gausman — 0.136 · 88.6 · 5.7% 10.0% 10.5% F B O D 43

· — William Contreras vs Gausman — 0.132 · 90.1 · 7.6% 9.1% 10.0% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Henderson — 0.098 · 85.9 · 3.2% 8.3% 8.7% F B O D 34

· CHC Pedro Ramirez vs Henderson Edge — 0.151 · 89.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 41

· — Andrew Vaughn COOL vs Gausman — 0.140 · 89.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 43

· — David Hamilton COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.091 · 86.9 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Henderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kevin Gausman — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Conforto Suzuki Bregman Busch Kelly Bauers Chourio

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 72

Michael Conforto — · 59

Ian Happ — · 60

Alex Bregman — · 54

Jackson Chourio — · 60

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:15p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 6 mph cross 86°F open

+10

↑

6 mph · out

83°F

6:15p · peak

+10

↑

6 mph · out

83°F

7:15p

+10

↑

6 mph · out

83°F

8:15p

+10

↑

6 mph · out

83°F

9:15p

+10

↑

6 mph · out

83°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 86°F, wind 6 mph E (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 72 B — · 2 0.289 90.2 10.5% 26.5%vs RHP 397 22.1% 33.3% 34.9% 39

2 Ian Happ 60 C+ — COOL 12 0.200 89.1 9.7% 24.7%vs RHP 402 17.9% 37.5% 28.0% 23

3 Michael Conforto 59 C — · 16 0.243 90.5 9.6% 20.4%vs RHP 396 10.0% 33.3% 32.4% 16

4 Seiya Suzuki 58 C — · 20 0.216 88.5 9.3% 21.6%vs RHP 406 17.1% 16.7% 19.7% 36

5 Alex Bregman 54 C — WARM 31 0.181 88.1 6.6% 17.8%vs RHP 390 13.1% 41.7% 23.7% 41

6 Michael Busch 50 C — WARM 43 0.152 88.3 8.8% 12.2%vs RHP 401 12.9% 16.7% 16.1% 27

7 Carson Kelly 46 D — WARM 63 0.131 87.2 6.7% 10.3%vs RHP 406 9.0% 33.3% 15.4% 29

8 Pedro Ramirez 41 D — WARM 89 0.151 89.2 6.0% 11.1%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 32

9 Nico Hoerner 34 D — WARM 132 0.098 85.9 3.2% 6.9%vs RHP 381 5.8% 8.3% 8.7% 40

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 61 C+ — COOL 9 0.222 92.4 10.0% 27.9%vs RHP 401 18.8% 10.0% 22.3% 16

2 Jackson Chourio 60 C+ — · 13 0.193 92.0 9.7% 19.4%vs RHP 399 17.2% 25.0% 26.1% 37

3 Brice Turang 49 D — COOL 49 0.170 90.2 7.4% 25.0%vs RHP 407 10.5% 8.3% 13.1% 33

4 Garrett Mitchell 49 D — WARM 50 0.150 92.9 9.3% 22.9%vs RHP 415 7.4% 12.5% 11.4% 20

5 Christian Yelich 48 D — · 55 0.149 88.9 8.6% 18.4%vs RHP 400 8.5% 11.1% 10.7% 30

6 William Contreras 45 D — · 69 0.132 90.1 7.6% 13.2%vs RHP 414 9.5% 9.1% 10.0% 36

7 Joey Ortiz 43 D — · 76 0.136 88.6 5.7% 14.7%vs RHP 391 7.6% 10.0% 10.5% 29

8 Andrew Vaughn 43 D — COOL 77 0.140 89.9 6.2% 11.1%vs RHP 407 6.8% 0.0% 10.3% 22

9 David Hamilton 36 D — COOL 117 0.091 86.9 5.0% 5.7%vs RHP 386 4.4% 0.0% 7.8% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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