TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.54×

MIA @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 9 mph out 93°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:40p

+11 ↑

7:40p

+10 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+10 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +12

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 30 · vs Alcantara ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 25 · vs Wacha → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 50

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +370 C ●●●●●

2 Nick Loftin +850 D ●●○○○

3 Vinnie Pasquantino +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 16

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +280 C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández +265 C ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: Match 21.4% · 14D pace 28.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen vs Alcantara Edge +370 0.189 · 91.1 · 7.5% 40.0% 20.3% F B O C 52

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ HOT vs Wacha Edge +280 0.218 · 92.3 · 9.2% 28.6% 21.4% F B O C 56

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Wacha +265 0.231 · 91.3 · 9.7% 0.0% 30.6% F B O C 52

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Alcantara Edge +320 0.213 · 93.2 · 8.7% 11.1% 15.5% F B O C 52

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Wacha Edge +475 0.192 · 91.0 · 9.8% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· KC Nick Loftin HOT vs Alcantara +850 0.155 · 87.2 · 4.5% 18.2% 11.9% F B O D 40

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Wacha Edge +850 0.113 · 87.2 · 4.8% 22.2% 7.0% F B O D 36

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Alcantara Edge +525 0.134 · 89.6 · 6.3% 18.2% 10.2% F B O D 41

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Wacha +950 0.135 · 86.8 · 3.8% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 36

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Wacha +575 0.136 · 89.1 · 6.6% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 40

· KC Bobby Witt vs Alcantara — 0.166 · 92.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Alcantara Edge +850 0.168 · 89.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Alcantara +425 0.147 · 88.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 38

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Alcantara Edge +950 0.120 · 88.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Michael Wacha — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sandy Alcantara — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Hernández Marsee Caglianone Jensen Pasquantino Loftin

Legend

attack side — vs Alcantara fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Carter Jensen +370 · 52

Kyle Stowers +280 · 56

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 9 mph out 93°F open

+12

↑

10 mph · out

94°F

6:40p · peak

+11

↑

9 mph · out

91°F

7:40p

+10

↑

8 mph · out

88°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · out

85°F

9:40p

+10

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.54× 93°F, wind 9 mph S (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 56 C +280 HOT 27 0.218 92.3 9.2% 23.1%vs RHP 396 14.6% 28.6% 21.4% 13

2 Heriberto Hernández 52 C +265 WARM 34 0.231 91.3 9.7% 24.5%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 30.6% 29

3 Owen Caissie 50 C +475 COOL 41 0.192 91.0 9.8% 26.5%vs RHP 398 13.6% 0.0% 12.6% 13

4 Otto Lopez 40 D +575 · 87 0.136 89.1 6.6% 9.5%vs RHP 402 6.7% 8.3% 8.8% 39

5 Javier Sanoja 36 D +950 COOL 101 0.135 86.8 3.8% 6.7%vs RHP 378 7.4% 9.1% 8.3% 38

6 Jakob Marsee 36 D +850 WARM 102 0.113 87.2 4.8% 10.1%vs RHP 381 8.2% 22.2% 7.0% 22

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 52 C +320 · 37 0.213 93.2 8.7% 30.8%vs RHP 416 14.8% 11.1% 15.5% 23

2 Carter Jensen 52 C +370 WARM 39 0.189 91.1 7.5% 18.2%vs RHP 396 16.2% 40.0% 20.3% 26

3 Bobby Witt 42 D — · 72 0.166 92.3 7.8% 16.0%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 37

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 41 D +525 WARM 78 0.134 89.6 6.3% 13.8%vs RHP 398 10.0% 18.2% 10.2% 32

5 Nick Loftin 40 D +850 HOT 85 0.155 87.2 4.5% 10.6%vs RHP 394 9.6% 18.2% 11.9% 30

6 Michael Massey 40 D +850 COOL 86 0.168 89.5 5.6% 10.1%vs RHP 399 7.6% 0.0% 9.5% 13

7 Salvador Perez 38 D +425 COOL 92 0.147 88.8 7.2% 16.7%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 37

8 Isaac Collins 35 D +950 COOL 105 0.120 88.8 5.4% 7.8%vs RHP 394 5.3% 0.0% 7.2% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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