TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ BAL

Playable air · 1.10×

BOS @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:15p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:15p

+7 ↑

8:15p

+7 ↑

9:15p

+8 ↑

10:15p

+8 ↑

11:15p

conditions build late — the 10:15p window peaks +8

Best of game Jarren Duran conv 18 · vs Young ⟷ Coby Mayo conv 24 · vs Bennett → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 67

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jarren Duran +500 D ●●●○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +290 C ●●○○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 35

0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.62 · stingy — thin edge

1 Coby Mayo +320 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +280 C ●●●●○

3 Colton Cowser — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Bennett Edge +320 0.227 · 91.9 · 9.3% 18.2% 29.4% F B O C 55

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Bennett Edge +280 0.230 · 94.2 · 9.6% 23.1% 24.1% F B O C 58

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Young Edge +290 0.209 · 89.8 · 9.2% 15.4% 12.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Young Edge +500 0.159 · 89.8 · 8.1% 20.0% 15.9% F B O D 48

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Bennett — 0.153 · 88.0 · 8.5% 18.2% 11.8% F B O D 44

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Bennett +625 0.182 · 89.8 · 7.0% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 44

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Bennett Edge +850 0.133 · 88.3 · 5.3% 8.3% 6.8% F B O D 34

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Bennett +850 0.126 · 87.1 · 6.4% 8.3% 5.5% F B O D 35

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Young +625 0.162 · 86.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 41

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Bennett — 0.198 · 90.4 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 46

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Young +850 0.134 · 83.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 35

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Young — 0.151 · 87.9 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Young — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jake Bennett — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abreu Duran Alonso Mayo Cowser

Legend

attack side — vs Young fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Alonso +280 · 58

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph out 83°F open

↑

5 mph · out

85°F

7:15p

↑

6 mph · out

82°F

8:15p

↑

6 mph · out

80°F

9:15p

↑

7 mph · out

78°F

10:15p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 83°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 53 C +290 COOL 33 0.209 89.8 9.2% 15.7%vs RHP 406 16.2% 15.4% 12.9% 34

2 Jarren Duran 48 D +500 WARM 48 0.159 89.8 8.1% 28.3%vs RHP 399 14.0% 20.0% 15.9% 29

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 41 D +625 COOL 77 0.162 86.3 6.0% 14.1%vs RHP 382 11.9% 0.0% 10.4% 40

4 Andruw Monasterio 41 D — COOL 80 0.151 87.9 6.9% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.3% 0.0% 7.9% 26

5 Caleb Durbin 35 D +850 COOL 103 0.134 83.6 4.2% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.4% 0.0% 9.1% 32

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.62 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 58 C +280 · 19 0.230 94.2 9.6% 20.5%vs LHP 402 20.9% 23.1% 24.1% 32

2 Coby Mayo 55 C +320 COOL 29 0.227 91.9 9.3% 42.9%vs LHP 411 17.0% 18.2% 29.4% 21

3 Samuel Basallo 46 D — COOL 55 0.198 90.4 9.2% 20.0%vs LHP 399 14.3% 0.0% 9.8% 21

4 Colton Cowser 44 D — WARM 62 0.153 88.0 8.5% 14.3%vs LHP 412 16.0% 18.2% 11.8% 24

5 Gunnar Henderson 44 D +625 COOL 63 0.182 89.8 7.0% 33.3%vs LHP 393 14.6% 7.7% 11.6% 36

6 Jackson Holliday 35 D +850 · 107 0.126 87.1 6.4% 8.3%vs LHP 388 4.9% 8.3% 5.5% 40

7 Leody Taveras 34 D +850 · 112 0.133 88.3 5.3% 6.7%vs LHP 403 5.0% 8.3% 6.8% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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