TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ LAD

Playable air · 1.05×

STL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+5 ↑

10:10p

+5 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +8

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 26 · vs Skubal ⟷ Max Muncy conv 21 · vs Mathews → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 36

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +400 C ●●●●○

2 Nolan Gorman — D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●●○○○

FADE Quinn Mathews LHP · STL

leak 5

0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C ●●●○○

2 Tommy Edman +500 D ●●○○○

3 Mookie Betts +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: Match 27.8% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jordan Walker ✶ COOL vs Skubal Edge +400 0.217 · 92.4 · 10.1% 25.0% 27.8% F B O C 58

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Mathews — 0.241 · 90.4 · 7.5% 26.7% 15.0% F B O C 57

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Mathews +280 0.248 · 93.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 16.2% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Nolan Gorman vs Skubal — 0.130 · 89.4 · 8.7% 14.3% 16.3% F B O D 42

· — Nathan Church COOL vs Skubal — 0.126 · 85.8 · 6.9% 10.0% 11.3% F B O D 38

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Mathews Edge +500 0.134 · 87.9 · 5.0% 10.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Mathews Edge +500 0.169 · 89.9 · 5.5% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 42

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Mathews +525 0.156 · 89.7 · 6.0% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 41

· — José Fermín vs Skubal Edge +850 0.115 · 86.3 · 4.4% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 33

· — Alec Burleson COOL vs Skubal +625 0.186 · 92.1 · 9.2% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 48

· LAD Dalton Rushing vs Mathews — 0.220 · 89.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Mathews Edge +425 0.145 · 89.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· — Ivan Herrera COOL vs Skubal Edge +625 0.131 · 89.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Mathews +575 0.128 · 88.7 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Quinn Mathews — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tarik Skubal — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Walker Gorman

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jordan Walker +400 · 58

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph out 72°F open

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

68°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

66°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · out

65°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 72°F, wind 6 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Quinn Mathews · LHP 0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy 57 C — COOL 23 0.241 90.4 7.5% 25.0%vs LHP 411 21.0% 26.7% 15.0% 43

2 Shohei Ohtani 56 C +280 COOL 25 0.248 93.4 8.3% 30.8%vs LHP 407 18.7% 0.0% 16.2% 25

3 Dalton Rushing 47 D — · 51 0.220 89.6 7.3% 8.3%vs LHP 400 9.7% 0.0% 13.7% 0

4 Mookie Betts 42 D +500 COOL 75 0.169 89.9 5.5% 10.0%vs LHP 389 11.5% 9.1% 9.0% 35

5 Freddie Freeman 41 D +525 COOL 82 0.156 89.7 6.0% 12.9%vs LHP 398 10.4% 9.1% 8.4% 29

6 Tommy Edman 38 D +500 COOL 94 0.134 87.9 5.0% 37.5%vs LHP 398 7.9% 10.0% 9.8% 29

7 Teoscar Hernandez 37 D +425 COOL 97 0.145 89.6 6.4% 20.0%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 20

8 Kyle Tucker 35 D +575 COOL 106 0.128 88.7 4.9% 6.1%vs LHP 392 7.0% 0.0% 6.3% 30

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 58 C +400 COOL 18 0.217 92.4 10.1% 34.6%vs LHP 406 18.1% 25.0% 27.8% 32

2 Alec Burleson 48 D +625 COOL 49 0.186 92.1 9.2% 9.4%vs LHP 405 14.3% 0.0% 14.5% 34

3 Nolan Gorman 42 D — WARM 71 0.130 89.4 8.7% 11.1%vs LHP 405 9.2% 14.3% 16.3% 13

4 Nathan Church 38 D — COOL 93 0.126 85.8 6.9% 16.7%vs LHP 386 8.2% 10.0% 11.3% 30

5 Ivan Herrera 34 D +625 COOL 110 0.131 89.2 6.4% 19.2%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 29

6 José Fermín 33 D +850 WARM 114 0.115 86.3 4.4% 14.3%vs LHP 390 6.0% 9.1% 8.0% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.