TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.35×

TOR @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 9 mph slight_out 90°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:10p

+0 ↑

2:10p

+2 ↑

3:10p

+4 ↑

4:10p

+6 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +6

Best of game Patrick Bailey conv 14 · vs Soriano ⟷ Nathan Lukes conv 24 · vs Bibee → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 87

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Patrick Bailey +900 D ●●○○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

3 Chase Delauter +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 30

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathan Lukes +625 D ●●●●○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +500 C ●●●●○

3 George Springer +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 23.1% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Bibee +500 0.215 · 90.4 · 10.4% 25.0% 23.1% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Bibee Edge +625 0.123 · 86.9 · 4.5% 33.3% 15.2% F B O D 39

· TOR George Springer vs Bibee +500 0.165 · 88.3 · 7.3% 20.0% 13.3% F B O D 45

· — Patrick Bailey vs Soriano Edge +900 0.127 · 90.5 · 7.3% 14.3% 14.1% F B O D 39

· — Angel Martinez COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.193 · 87.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 22.4% F B O D 42

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Bibee Edge +510 0.162 · 90.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 45

· — Chase Delauter vs Soriano Edge +850 0.160 · 91.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 39

· — Jose Ramirez COOL vs Soriano Edge +700 0.147 · 89.5 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 34

· — Travis Bazzana COOL vs Soriano Edge +950 0.128 · 87.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 35

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Bibee Edge +700 0.113 · 85.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 31

· — Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Soriano Edge +1000 0.114 · 86.8 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 31

· — Steven Kwan vs Soriano Edge — 0.059 · 83.9 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 21

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero COOL vs Bibee — 0.092 · 90.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Bibee — 0.113 · 84.2 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 32

· TOR Myles Straw vs Bibee — 0.113 · 85.8 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tanner Bibee — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for José Soriano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes Bailey

Legend

attack side — vs Soriano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kazuma Okamoto +500 · 58

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 9 mph slight_out 90°F open

↑

9 mph · cross

85°F

1:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

88°F

2:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

90°F

3:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

91°F

4:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

92°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 90°F, wind 9 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 58 C +500 WARM 20 0.215 90.4 10.4% 26.3%vs RHP 400 17.9% 25.0% 23.1% 30

2 George Springer 45 D +500 · 57 0.165 88.3 7.3% 20.8%vs RHP 395 11.3% 20.0% 13.3% 30

3 Jesús Sánchez 45 D +510 · 59 0.162 90.8 9.5% 17.8%vs RHP 398 9.6% 0.0% 11.2% 10

4 Nathan Lukes 39 D +625 WARM 90 0.123 86.9 4.5% 17.0%vs RHP 382 8.4% 33.3% 15.2% 26

5 Vladimir Guerrero 33 D — COOL 116 0.092 90.1 7.2% 9.8%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 35

6 Ernie Clement 32 D — COOL 118 0.113 84.2 4.2% 6.1%vs RHP 376 7.0% 0.0% 6.4% 32

7 Myles Straw 32 D — WARM 119 0.113 85.8 5.2% 4.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 23

8 Andres Gimenez 31 D +700 WARM 120 0.113 85.6 5.2% 10.0%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 14

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 42 D — COOL 70 0.193 87.5 7.7% 20.9%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 24

2 Chase Delauter 39 D +850 WARM 89 0.160 91.4 6.9% 20.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 19

3 Patrick Bailey 39 D +900 WARM 91 0.127 90.5 7.3% 15.0%vs RHP 409 7.4% 14.3% 14.1% 14

4 Travis Bazzana 35 D +950 COOL 104 0.128 87.9 5.9% 14.3%vs RHP 396 8.7% 0.0% 8.3% 28

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D +700 COOL 109 0.147 89.5 6.0% 9.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 34

6 Brayan Rocchio 31 D +1000 COOL 121 0.114 86.8 4.8% 10.6%vs RHP 384 7.0% 0.0% 7.9% 30

7 Steven Kwan 21 D — WARM 126 0.059 83.9 2.0% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.6% 0.0% 6.9% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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