TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.03×

ATH @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 3 mph out 64°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +4

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 34 · vs Perkins ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 10 · vs Anderson → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 92

1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena +500 C ●●●●○

3 Dominic Canzone +475 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Kade Anderson LHP · SEA

leak 34

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof +625 C ●●○○○

2 Henry Bolte +750 D ●○○○○

3 Lawrence Butler +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 22.8% · 14D pace 45.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ HOT vs Perkins Edge +290 0.187 · 89.8 · 11.3% 45.5% 22.8% F B O C+ 60

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Perkins +500 0.194 · 90.6 · 8.1% 30.8% 23.2% F B O C 56

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Perkins Edge +475 0.230 · 91.2 · 10.3% 16.7% 23.6% F B O C+ 60

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs Anderson Edge +625 0.188 · 88.7 · 7.6% 8.3% 11.4% F B O C 50

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Perkins +500 0.157 · 89.9 · 9.1% 7.7% 10.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Perkins Edge +750 0.138 · 88.4 · 6.4% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Anderson Edge +750 0.098 · 90.9 · 7.1% 7.7% 10.3% F B O D 41

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Anderson +750 0.140 · 89.4 · 7.5% 7.7% 10.0% F B O D 44

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Anderson — 0.139 · 89.0 · 6.9% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 42

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Perkins Edge +850 0.128 · 87.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 39

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Perkins Edge +750 0.097 · 87.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Anderson — 0.101 · 86.6 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kade Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jack Perkins — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Raleigh Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Perkins fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Cal Raleigh +290 · 60

Randy Arozarena +500 · 56

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 3 mph out 64°F retractable

↑

4 mph · out

64°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

61°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

60°F

8:40p

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

58°F

9:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

57°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 64°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kade Anderson · LHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 50 C +625 COOL 45 0.188 88.7 7.6% 15.8%vs LHP 398 18.9% 8.3% 11.4% 30

2 Lawrence Butler 44 D +750 · 66 0.140 89.4 7.5% 28.6%vs LHP 410 8.3% 7.7% 10.0% 27

3 Carlos Cortes 42 D — COOL 74 0.139 89.0 6.9% 12.1% 401 5.1% 9.1% 8.2% 27

4 Henry Bolte 41 D +750 COOL 81 0.098 90.9 7.1% 41.7%vs LHP 410 10.2% 7.7% 10.3% 31

5 Jeff Mcneil 33 D — WARM 113 0.101 86.6 3.6% 0.0%vs LHP 381 4.8% 0.0% 6.2% 43

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 60 C+ +475 COOL 14 0.230 91.2 10.3% 23.9%vs RHP 404 15.8% 16.7% 23.6% 31

2 Cal Raleigh ✶ 60 C+ +290 HOT 15 0.187 89.8 11.3% 16.9%vs RHP 385 16.1% 45.5% 22.8% 27

3 Randy Arozarena 56 C +500 WARM 24 0.194 90.6 8.1% 24.1%vs RHP 386 15.6% 30.8% 23.2% 31

4 Julio Rodríguez 50 C +500 WARM 44 0.157 89.9 9.1% 18.8%vs RHP 404 15.5% 7.7% 10.5% 32

5 Cole Young 43 D +750 COOL 68 0.138 88.4 6.4% 18.1%vs RHP 383 11.3% 8.3% 10.1% 31

6 J.P. Crawford 39 D +850 COOL 88 0.128 87.8 7.3% 23.1%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 14

7 Josh Naylor 37 D +750 COOL 98 0.097 87.3 6.2% 11.3%vs RHP 392 6.0% 0.0% 8.8% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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