TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.16×

CWS @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 2:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 5 mph in 77°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:10p

+0 ↑

2:10p

+2 ↑

3:10p

+4 ↑

4:10p

+5 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +5

Best of game Randal Grichuk conv 32 · vs Brown ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 29 · vs Castillo → edge: Randal Grichuk

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 92

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randal Grichuk — C+ ●●●●●

2 Tristan Peters +950 C ●●●●●

3 Colson Montgomery +425 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Luis Castillo RHP · SEA

leak 84

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +575 C+ ●●●●○

2 Yainer Diaz +850 C ●●●○○

3 Isaac Paredes +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Randal Grichuk: Match 31.5% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Randal Grichuk ✶ vs Brown — 0.272 · 91.0 · 9.0% 33.3% 31.5% F B O C+ 64

· CWS Tristan Peters HOT vs Brown Edge +950 0.185 · 87.4 · 6.1% 38.5% 24.5% F B O C 55

· CWS Colson Montgomery HOT vs Brown Edge +425 0.222 · 88.8 · 9.0% 25.0% 33.5% F B O C+ 65

· — Jeremy Peña vs Castillo +575 0.196 · 88.3 · 7.8% 27.3% 31.1% F B O C+ 61

· — Yainer Diaz HOT vs Castillo +850 0.154 · 88.0 · 7.2% 14.3% 24.3% F B O C 52

· — Isaac Paredes COOL vs Castillo +500 0.164 · 85.9 · 6.9% 15.4% 14.3% F B O C 52

· — Christian Walker vs Castillo +500 0.200 · 89.3 · 9.2% 9.1% 17.9% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Brown +475 0.237 · 90.7 · 9.7% 7.7% 18.2% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Brown Edge +400 0.274 · 93.9 · 11.3% 0.0% 24.6% F B O C+ 68

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Brown Edge +750 0.179 · 89.0 · 7.5% 10.0% 14.5% F B O C 53

· — Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Castillo Edge +225 0.288 · 94.5 · 12.6% 0.0% 20.9% F B O C+ 67

· — Cam Smith COOL vs Castillo +625 0.175 · 89.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 56

· — Taylor Trammell vs Castillo Edge +600 0.155 · 88.3 · 10.6% 0.0% 12.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Brown Edge +900 0.130 · 89.0 · 5.2% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 44

· — Jose Altuve vs Castillo +750 0.149 · 85.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 45

· — Christian Vazquez COOL vs Castillo — 0.125 · 85.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Brown Edge +950 0.123 · 87.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Brown — 0.128 · 87.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Hunter Brown — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Luis Castillo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Montgomery Grichuk Peters Peña Walker Diaz Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Randal Grichuk — · 64

Tristan Peters +950 · 55

Colson Montgomery +425 · 65

Jeremy Peña +575 · 61

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.16× Wind 5 mph in 77°F retractable

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

1:10p

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

2:10p

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

3:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

4:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 77°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 68 C+ +400 COOL 2 0.274 93.9 11.3% 37.7%vs RHP 404 17.9% 0.0% 24.6% 20

2 Colson Montgomery 65 C+ +425 HOT 4 0.222 88.8 9.0% 25.3%vs RHP 398 21.7% 25.0% 33.5% 19

3 Randal Grichuk ✶ 64 C+ — · 5 0.272 91.0 9.0% 16.7%vs RHP 393 14.3% 33.3% 31.5% 11

4 Miguel Vargas 63 C+ +475 COOL 6 0.237 90.7 9.7% 17.3%vs RHP 393 19.8% 7.7% 18.2% 31

5 Tristan Peters 55 C +950 HOT 28 0.185 87.4 6.1% 14.7%vs RHP 377 11.9% 38.5% 24.5% 30

6 Andrew Benintendi 53 C +750 WARM 32 0.179 89.0 7.5% 17.1%vs RHP 388 13.0% 10.0% 14.5% 28

7 Braden Montgomery 44 D +900 WARM 64 0.130 89.0 5.2% 15.4%vs RHP 390 6.0% 9.1% 10.4% 36

8 Sam Antonacci 43 D +950 COOL 69 0.123 87.3 5.8% 12.3%vs RHP 390 8.0% 0.0% 10.0% 32

9 Chase Meidroth 42 D — · 73 0.128 87.7 5.3% 15.1%vs RHP 379 7.6% 0.0% 9.8% 37

vs Luis Castillo · RHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 67 C+ +225 COOL 3 0.288 94.5 12.6% 25.9%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 28

2 Jeremy Peña 61 C+ +575 WARM 8 0.196 88.3 7.8% 29.4%vs RHP 387 16.5% 27.3% 31.1% 25

3 Christian Walker 60 C+ +500 · 16 0.200 89.3 9.2% 24.7%vs RHP 391 17.1% 9.1% 17.9% 33

4 Cam Smith 56 C +625 COOL 26 0.175 89.3 10.2% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.3% 0.0% 14.8% 25

5 Taylor Trammell 54 C +600 · 30 0.155 88.3 10.6% 20.0%vs RHP 413 12.5% 0.0% 12.4% 20

6 Yainer Diaz 52 C +850 HOT 35 0.154 88.0 7.2% 29.0%vs RHP 392 10.3% 14.3% 24.3% 23

7 Isaac Paredes 52 C +500 COOL 38 0.164 85.9 6.9% 17.2%vs RHP 377 12.0% 15.4% 14.3% 38

8 Jose Altuve 45 D +750 WARM 58 0.149 85.4 6.7% 20.4%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 31

9 Christian Vazquez 40 D — COOL 83 0.125 85.9 4.5% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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