TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.42×

TB @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 12 mph slight_out 87°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:05p

+8 ↑

8:05p

+8 ↑

9:05p

+8 ↑

10:05p

+8 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +8 FIT

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 35 · vs McClanahan ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 18 · vs Quantrill → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Shane McClanahan LHP · TB

leak 77

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +350 C ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Duran +750 D ●●●○○

FADE Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 68

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +305 C+ ●●●○○

2 Jonathan Aranda +400 D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 29.4% · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs McClanahan — 0.246 · 92.3 · 9.8% 40.0% 29.4% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Jake Burger HOT vs McClanahan Edge +350 0.189 · 90.2 · 10.0% 16.7% 18.9% F B O C 52

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Quantrill +305 0.250 · 93.0 · 10.0% 15.4% 20.0% F B O C+ 61

· TEX Corey Seager vs McClanahan +330 0.184 · 91.7 · 11.1% 7.7% 12.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs McClanahan Edge +750 0.174 · 88.9 · 7.4% 23.1% 11.7% F B O D 46

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Quantrill Edge +400 0.142 · 91.1 · 8.7% 18.2% 11.9% F B O D 46

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Quantrill Edge +525 0.147 · 87.9 · 5.7% 11.1% 9.2% F B O D 41

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Quantrill Edge +950 0.106 · 86.0 · 5.2% 12.5% 7.6% F B O D 35

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs McClanahan Edge +500 0.197 · 89.2 · 7.7% 7.7% 11.3% F B O D 47

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs McClanahan +525 0.158 · 92.2 · 9.4% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 45

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Quantrill +525 0.167 · 90.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 41

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Quantrill — 0.165 · 85.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 37

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Quantrill — 0.101 · 85.2 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 32

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs McClanahan — 0.039 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 18

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.073 · 85.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 28

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs McClanahan — 0.122 · 88.0 · 6.8% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 36

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.053 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cal Quantrill — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Shane McClanahan — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Pederson Burger Duran

Legend

attack side — vs McClanahan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson — · 60

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.01× Wind 12 mph slight_out 87°F retractable

↑

14 mph · slight_out

86°F

7:05p · peak

↑

13 mph · slight_out

84°F

8:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

83°F

9:05p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

82°F

10:05p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

80°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.42× 87°F, wind 12 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 61 C+ +305 COOL 10 0.250 93.0 10.0% 39.7%vs RHP 414 25.0% 15.4% 20.0% 40

2 Jonathan Aranda 46 D +400 · 54 0.142 91.1 8.7% 16.1%vs RHP 390 11.6% 18.2% 11.9% 30

3 Yandy Diaz 41 D +525 WARM 76 0.167 90.8 7.3% 25.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 40

4 Cedric Mullins 41 D +525 WARM 79 0.147 87.9 5.7% 16.9%vs RHP 387 11.9% 11.1% 9.2% 25

5 Jonny Deluca 37 D — COOL 96 0.165 85.7 5.3% 24.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 36

6 Richie Palacios 35 D +950 COOL 108 0.106 86.0 5.2% 11.4%vs RHP 398 5.1% 12.5% 7.6% 22

7 Nick Fortes 32 D — COOL 117 0.101 85.2 4.1% 15.8%vs RHP 396 4.2% 0.0% 8.3% 11

8 Taylor Walls 28 D — COOL 125 0.073 85.5 3.9% 2.3%vs RHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 6.5% 25

9 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 128 0.053 83.8 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 44

vs Shane McClanahan · LHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 60 C+ — · 13 0.246 92.3 9.8% 24.2% 395 22.6% 40.0% 29.4% 17

2 Jake Burger 52 C +350 HOT 36 0.189 90.2 10.0% 33.3%vs LHP 401 16.0% 16.7% 18.9% 28

3 Corey Seager 50 C +330 WARM 42 0.184 91.7 11.1% 18.8%vs LHP 394 15.0% 7.7% 12.3% 34

4 Wyatt Langford 47 D +500 COOL 52 0.197 89.2 7.7% 16.0%vs LHP 396 15.0% 7.7% 11.3% 37

5 Ezequiel Duran 46 D +750 WARM 56 0.174 88.9 7.4% 13.0%vs LHP 395 13.4% 23.1% 11.7% 33

6 Brandon Nimmo 45 D +525 · 60 0.158 92.2 9.4% 15.6%vs LHP 404 10.1% 7.7% 10.1% 38

7 Evan Carter 36 D — COOL 100 0.122 88.0 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 374 6.8% 0.0% 6.4% 23

8 Nicky Lopez 18 D — COOL 127 0.039 84.3 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 8.0% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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