TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ PIT

PNC Park is live · 1.31×

SF @ PIT

PNC Park · 12:35p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 7 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

12:35p

+7 ↑

1:35p

+7 ↑

2:35p

+7 ↑

3:35p

+7 ↑

4:35p

the 1:35p window peaks +7

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 26 · vs Tidwell ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 39 · vs Bachar → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Blade Tidwell RHP · SF

leak 95

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe +320 C ●●●●○

2 Oneil Cruz +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

FADE Lake Bachar RHP · PIT

leak 74

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Drew Gilbert +850 D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Eldridge +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 28.0% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs Bachar Edge +320 0.242 · 92.8 · 9.7% 50.0% 28.0% F B O C+ 63

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Tidwell Edge +320 0.228 · 91.1 · 10.3% 22.2% 29.1% F B O C 57

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Tidwell Edge +305 0.217 · 95.5 · 12.5% 20.0% 29.6% F B O C+ 60

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Bachar Edge +400 0.185 · 92.5 · 10.1% 9.1% 11.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Bachar Edge +850 0.146 · 86.8 · 6.8% 16.7% 14.8% F B O D 40

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Tidwell — 0.071 · 86.9 · 4.9% 10.0% 6.3% F B O D 29

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Tidwell Edge +500 0.157 · 90.7 · 9.8% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 44

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Tidwell Edge +525 0.134 · 86.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 38

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Tidwell Edge — 0.086 · 85.5 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 28

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Bachar Edge +900 0.130 · 87.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Tidwell — 0.088 · 86.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Lake Bachar — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Blade Tidwell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Gilbert Cruz Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Tidwell fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Rafael Devers +320 · 63

Brandon Lowe +320 · 57

Oneil Cruz +305 · 60

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 12:35p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 7 mph out 86°F open

↑

8 mph · out

81°F

12:35p

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

1:35p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

88°F

2:35p

↑

8 mph · out

92°F

3:35p

↑

8 mph · out

96°F

4:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 86°F, wind 7 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Lake Bachar · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 63 C+ +320 HOT 7 0.242 92.8 9.7% 28.4%vs RHP 399 21.4% 50.0% 28.0% 38

2 Bryce Eldridge 50 C +400 WARM 43 0.185 92.5 10.1% 19.2%vs RHP 399 18.6% 9.1% 11.5% 29

3 Drew Gilbert 40 D +850 HOT 84 0.146 86.8 6.8% 16.7%vs RHP 394 6.9% 16.7% 14.8% 23

4 Jung Hoo Lee 33 D +900 WARM 115 0.130 87.3 4.7% 10.3%vs RHP 382 5.5% 0.0% 7.2% 38

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 60 C+ +305 COOL 12 0.217 95.5 12.5% 39.4%vs RHP 413 23.5% 20.0% 29.6% 25

2 Brandon Lowe 57 C +320 COOL 22 0.228 91.1 10.3% 27.4%vs RHP 390 17.6% 22.2% 29.1% 18

3 Bryan Reynolds 44 D +500 COOL 65 0.157 90.7 9.8% 15.0%vs RHP 409 10.3% 0.0% 10.3% 32

4 Spencer Horwitz 38 D +525 COOL 95 0.134 86.9 7.7% 13.9%vs RHP 395 9.1% 0.0% 8.6% 25

5 Nick Gonzales 29 D — COOL 122 0.088 86.1 5.0% 9.8%vs RHP 397 6.2% 0.0% 6.5% 29

6 Jared Triolo 29 D — COOL 123 0.071 86.9 4.9% 8.3%vs RHP 409 2.6% 10.0% 6.3% 27

7 Jake Mangum 28 D — COOL 124 0.086 85.5 4.2% 10.0%vs RHP 393 4.3% 0.0% 8.0% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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